tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66678595695597414682024-02-07T01:35:18.306-06:00GullibilityCritical analysis of current events.
Sometimes opinionated, always skeptical.Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-61353966061101826872012-12-03T00:13:00.000-06:002012-12-03T00:13:23.265-06:00Tear Jerky Military Fables<span style="font-size: large;"> No<span style="font-size: large;">vember 11 has passed once again, and some <span style="font-size: large;">people may be calm enough to accept a crit<span style="font-size: large;">ical analysis of some of the tear jerky military <span style="font-size: large;">fables</span> we are fed th<span style="font-size: large;">at time of the year. I will post <span style="font-size: large;">the two leng<span style="font-size: large;">thy </span>mess<span style="font-size: large;">ages that I <span style="font-size: large;">consider tied for<span style="font-size: large;"> this year's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacrimal_gland">Lacrimal Gland</a> Award (<span style="font-size: large;">my</span> fictitious honorific). <span style="font-size: large;">My analys<span style="font-size: large;">is will follow the messages.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">----------------------------------------</span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red;"> WHEN YOU READ THIS , STOP AND GIVE YOUR THANKS FOR ALL OF THESE SERVICEMEN THAT RISK THEIR LIVES EVERY DAY SO THAT WE MAY LIVE IN PEACE.</span><br /><b><br /></b></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b> Letter from an airline pilot</b>:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"> He writes: My lead flight attendant came to me and said, "We have an H.R. On this flight." (H.R. Stands for human remains.) "Are they military?" I asked. 'Yes', she said. 'Is there an escort?' I asked. 'Yes, I've already assigned him a seat'. 'Would you please tell him to come to the flight deck. You can board him early," I said..</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">A short while later, a young army sergeant entered the flight deck. He was the image of the perfectly dressed soldier. He introduced himself and I asked him about his soldier. The escorts of these fallen soldiers talk about them as if they are still alive and still with us.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">'My soldier is on his way back to Virginia ,' he said. He proceeded to answer my questions, but offered no words.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">I asked him if there was anything I could do for him and he said no. I told him that he had the toughest job in the military and that I appreciated the work that he does for the families of our fallen soldiers. The first officer and I got up out of our seats to shake his hand. He left the flight deck to find his seat.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">We completed our pre-flight checks, pushed back and performed an uneventful departure. About 30 minutes into our flight I received a call from the lead flight attendant in the cabin. 'I just found out the family of the soldier we are carrying, is on board', she said. She then proceeded to tell me that the father, mother, wife and 2-year old daughter were escorting their son, husband, and father home. The family was upset because they were unable to see the container that the soldier was in before we left. We were on our way to a major hub at which the family was going to wait four hours for the connecting flight home to Virginia .</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">The father of the soldier told the flight attendant that knowing his son was below him in the cargo compartment and being unable to see him was too much for him and the family to bear. He had asked the flight attendant if there was anything that could be done to allow them to see him upon our arrival. The family wanted to be outside by the cargo door to watch the soldier being taken off the airplane. I could hear the desperation in the flight attendants voice when she asked me if there was anything I could do. 'I'm on it', I said. I told her that I would get back to her.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">Airborne communication with my company normally occurs in the form of e-mail like messages. I decided to bypass this system and contact my flight dispatcher directly on a secondary radio. There is a radio operator in the operations control center who connects you to the telephone of the dispatcher. I was in direct contact with the dispatcher. I explained the situation I had on board with the family and what it was the family wanted. He said he understood and that he would get back to me.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">Two hours went by and I had not heard from the dispatcher. We were going to get busy soon and I needed to know what to tell the family. I sent a text message asking for an update. I saved the return message from the dispatcher and the following is the text:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">'Captain, sorry it has taken so long to get back to you. There is policy on this now and I had to check on a few things. Upon your arrival a dedicated escort team will meet the aircraft. The team will escort the family to the ramp and plane side. A van will be used to load the remains with a secondary van for the family. The family will be taken to their departure area and escorted into the terminal where the remains can be seen on the ramp. It is a private area for the family only. When the connecting aircraft arrives, the family will be escorted onto the ramp and plane side to watch the remains being loaded for the final leg home. Captain, most of us here in flight control are veterans.. Please pass our condolences on to the family. Thanks.'</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">I sent a message back telling flight control thanks for a good job. I printed out the message and gave it to the lead flight attendant to pass on to the father. The lead flight attendant was very thankful and told me, 'You have no idea how much this will mean to them.'</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">Things started getting busy for the descent, approach and landing. After landing, we cleared the runway and taxied to the ramp area. The ramp is huge with 15 gates on either side of the alleyway. It is always a busy area with aircraft maneuvering every which way to enter and exit. When we entered the ramp and checked in with the ramp controller, we were told that all traffic was being held for us.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">'There is a team in place to meet the aircraft', we were told. It looked like it was all coming together, then I realized that once we turned the seat belt sign off, everyone would stand up at once and delay the family from getting off the airplane. As we approached our gate, I asked the co-pilot to tell the ramp controller we were going to stop short of the gate to make an announcement to the passengers. He did that and the ramp controller said, 'Take your time.'</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">I stopped the aircraft and set the parking brake. I pushed the public address button and said, 'Ladies and gentleman, this is your Captain speaking I have stopped short of our gate to make a special announcement. We have a passenger on board who deserves our honor and respect. His Name is Private XXXXXX, a soldier who recently lost his life. Private XXXXXX is under your feet in the cargo hold. Escorting him today is Army Sergeant XXXXXXX. Also, on board are his father, mother, wife, and daughter. Your entire flight crew is asking for all passengers to remain in their seats to allow the family to exit the aircraft first. Thank you.'</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">We continued the turn to the gate, came to a stop and started our shutdown procedures. A couple of minutes later I opened the cockpit door. I found the two forward flight attendants crying, something you just do not see. I was told that after we came to a stop, every passenger on the aircraft stayed in their seats, waiting for the family to exit the aircraft.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">When the family got up and gathered their things, a passenger slowly started to clap his hands. Moments later more passengers joined in and soon the entire aircraft was clapping. Words of 'God Bless You', I'm sorry, thank you, be proud, and other kind words were uttered to the family as they made their way down the aisle and out of the airplane.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">They were escorted down to the ramp to finally be with their loved one. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">Many of the passengers disembarking thanked me for the announcement I had made. They were just words, I told them, I could say them over and over again, but nothing I say will bring back that brave soldier.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">I respectfully ask that all of you reflect on this event and the sacrifices that millions of our men and women have made to ensure our freedom and safety in these USA, Canada, Australia New Zealand, England.</span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Foot note:</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: large;">I know everyone who has served their country who reads this will have tears in their eyes, including me.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">Prayer chain for our Military...</span><br /><span style="font-size: large;">Please send this on after a short prayer for our service men and women.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">They die for me and mine and you and yours and deserve our honor and respect.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;">GOD BLESS YOU!!!</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-size: large;">--------------------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Still there? Here's the second one, t<span style="font-size: large;">he sack lunch tale.<span style="font-size: large;"> Place <span style="font-size: large;">brain in neutral, right hand on mouse<span style="font-size: large;">, left hand on tissue dispenser.<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sack Lunches : <br /></span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I put my carry-on in the luggage compartment and sat down in my assigned </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">seat. It was going to be a long flight. 'I'm </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">glad I have a good book to read. Perhaps I will </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">get a short nap,' I thought. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Just before take-off, </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">a line of soldiers came down the aisle and </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">filled all the vacant seats, totally<span style="font-size: large;"> </span>surrounding </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">me. I decided to start a conversation. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">'Where are you</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>headed?' I asked the soldier seated nearest to </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">me. 'Petawawa. We'll be there for two </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">weeks for special training, and then we're being </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">deployed to Afghanistan </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">After flying for about an hour, an announcement was </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">made that sack lunches were available for five<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">dollars. It would be several hours before we </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">reached the east, and I quickly </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">decided a lunch </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">would help pass the time... </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I reached for my wallet, I overheard a soldier ask his buddy if</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>he planned to buy lunch. 'No, that seems </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">like a lot of money for just a sack lunch. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Probably wouldn't be worth five bucks. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I'll wait till we get to base.' </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">His friend agreed. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I looked around at the </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">other soldiers. None were buying lunch. I walked </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">to the back of the plane and handed the flight </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">attendant a fifty dollar bill. 'Take a </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">lunch to all those soldiers.' She grabbed my </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">arms and squeezed tightly. Her eyes wet with </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">tears, she thanked me. 'My son was a soldier in </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Iraq ; it's almost like you are doing it for him.' </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Picking up ten sacks, she headed up the aisle to where the </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">soldiers were seated. She stopped at my seat and </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">asked, 'Which do you like best - beef or </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">chicken?' 'Chicken,' I replied, </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">wondering why she asked. She turned and went to </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">the front of plane, returning a minute later </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">with a dinner plate from first class. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">'This is your thanks.' </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">After we finished eating, I went again to the back of the plane, </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">heading for the rest room. </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">A man stopped me. 'I saw what you did. I want to </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">be part of it. Here, take this.' He handed me </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">twenty-five dollars. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Soon after I returned </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">to my seat, I saw the Flight Captain coming down </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">the aisle, looking at the aisle numbers as he </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">walked, I hoped he was not looking for me, but </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">noticed he was looking at the numbers only on my </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">side of the plane. When he got to my row h<span style="font-size: large;">e</span></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>stopped, smiled, held out his hand and said, 'I </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">want to shake your hand.' Quickly unfastening my </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">seatbelt I stood and took the </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Captain's hand. </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">With a booming voice he said, 'I was a soldier </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">and I was a military pilot. Once, someone bought </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">me a lunch. It was an act of kindness I never </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">forgot.' I was embarrassed when applause was </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">heard from all of the passengers. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Later I walked to the</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>front of the plane so I could stretch my legs. A </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">man who was seated about six rows in front of me </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">reached out his hand, wanting to shake mine. He </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">left another twenty-five dollars in my palm. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">When we landed I </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">gathered my belongings and started to deplane. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Waiting just inside the airplane door was a man </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">who stopped me, put something in my shirt </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">pocket, turned, and walked away without saying a </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">word. Another twenty-five dollars! </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Upon entering the </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">terminal, I saw the soldiers gathering for their </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">trip to the base. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I walked over to </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">them and handed them seventy-five dollars. 'It </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">will take you some time to reach the base. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">It will be about time for a sandwich. </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">God Bless You.' </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span>Ten young men left that flight feeling the love and </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">respect of their fellow travelers. </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I walked briskly to </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">my car, I whispered a prayer for their safe </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">return. These soldiers were giving their all for </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">our country. I could only give them a couple of </span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">meals. It seemed so little... </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">A veteran is someone </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">who, at one point in his life, wrote a blank </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">check made payable to 'citizens of Canada ' </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">for an amount of 'up to and </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">including my life.' </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">That is Honour, and </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">there are way too many people in this country </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">who no longer understand it.' </span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span> </span> <span style="font-size: large;">------------------------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">OK. <span style="font-size: large;">Still there? <span style="font-size: large;">Box of tissues <span style="font-size: large;">running on emp<span style="font-size: large;">ty? By the way, this is the $129 <a href="http://binsuredhere.com/avoiding-outrageous-hospital-overcharges">Mucus Recovery S</a><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://binsuredhere.com/avoiding-outrageous-hospital-overcharges">ystem</a> that you mi<span style="font-size: large;">ght find </span>listed on a hospital bill in <span style="font-size: large;">the USA.</span></span> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">First, a few general thoughts on <b>critical thinking</b>, or in this case the lack thereof<span style="font-size: large;">, that allows people to pass on these messages as if they <span style="font-size: large;">are real documented events. Lack of critical thinking is an essential<span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="font-size: large;">ingredi<span style="font-size: large;">ent for gullibility to operate; otherwise people would immediately spot the obvious flaws in the stor<span style="font-size: large;">ies. <span style="font-size: large;">Remember my <b>definition of gullibility</b> is the thin<span style="font-size: large;">g that fills the void at the nexus o<span style="font-size: large;">f st<span style="font-size: large;">rong emotion and ignorance. The more emotion in the story, the more I tend to believe the emotion is there to overwhelm the critical thought process of the reader<span style="font-size: large;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>It has also become apparent to me that <span style="font-size: large;">many so-called educated people in North America <span style="font-size: large;">are <span style="font-size: large;"><b>functionally innumerate</b><span style="font-size: large;">; they are clue<span style="font-size: large;">less as to what are reasonable timeframes and distances given in internet fables.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Let's start with the <b>Caskets on a Plane fable</b> -- sounds like a good movie title. This tale comes from a <a href="http://acaptainslog.blogspot.ca/2008/07/fallen-soldier_04.html">blog</a> pu<span style="font-size: large;">rported<span style="font-size: large;">ly written by an American commercial a<span style="font-size: large;">irline <span style="font-size: large;">pilot.</span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span> It sounds like a<span style="font-size: large;">n expanded</span> version of the famou<span style="font-size: large;">s <a href="http://www.snopes.com/politics/war/johnson.asp">Howard Johnson</a> one (deceased soldier returning home on a commercial flight).</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="font-size: large;">First<span style="font-size: large;">, here's a bit about military protoc<span style="font-size: large;">ol <span style="font-size: large;">for</span> the transport of deceased servicemen<span style="font-size: large;">, facts <span style="font-size: large;">everyone should know just from <a href="http://ajr.org/Article.asp?id=4757">listening to the news</a>, but which most people m<span style="font-size: large;">iss because they are too busy emoting. <b>Returning deceased American military always go to Dover Air Force Base, in Delaware for autopsy.</b> Are you aware of any exceptions? (Similarly Canadian casualties go to Trenton AFB, then by ground to Toronto for autopsy.) The protocol for notification of next of kin allows for family to meet the incoming deceased at Dover if they so choose. So I don't buy the "can't see my deceased soldier<span style="font-size: large;">'s casket</span>" line. The family can view the incoming container <span style="font-size: large;">from overseas as well as the final coffin transport from Dover. <b>This part of the <span style="font-size: large;">fable stinks to high heaven.</span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I have trouble with the idea that the pilot would be told by a flight attendant that there was a body on board. Surely that would be listed in the cargo manifest and the pilot would know about it. <span style="font-size: large;">Flight attendants do not get <span style="font-size: large;">random bits of info on carg<span style="font-size: large;">o to pass on to the pi<span style="font-size: large;">lots.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I also ha<span style="font-size: large;">ve<span style="font-size: large;"> trouble with the part about the pilot being told first about a<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">n accom<span style="font-size: large;">panying soldier, and later about a newly found accompanying family. They didn't know about each other? <b>Doesn't pass the smell test.</b></span></span> </span></span></span></span> </span></span><br />
<br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Let's examine<span style="font-size: large;"> some timeline details given in the story<span style="font-size: large;">. Often the timeline will tell you what is possible, what is imposs<span style="font-size: large;">ib<span style="font-size: large;">le, and what is probable.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is only about 150 air miles from Dover<span style="font-size: large;"> AFB</span> to Richmond, Virginia. I have no idea whether they would use air transport for this distance, but I would use ground transport. The plane was in the air for 2-1/2 hours before beginning descent, so they likely would have covered at least 1000 air miles -- overflying Richmond (a possible destination) by at least 850 miles. Flight time from Miami to Richmond is only 2 hours as another comparison, but this plane is in the air around three hours, so it must have originated in the plains States somewhere, something like Dallas, TX, which is ludicrous.<br /><br />But this is not the end of the stupidity. Supposedly they are just on the first leg of their flight; they have a 4 hour lay-over at a major hub terminal before their final leg home to Virginia. A lay-over from Delaware to Virginia? Where is this mythical major hub? Please explain that one to me. <b>Unless you can explain some exception to release of remains from Dover, this entire tale stinks to high heaven.</b></span></span></span></span> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Th<span style="font-size: large;">e only thing missing from this tear jerker is the fallen soldier's dog, presumably named Rex or Skip or similar. The writer probably forgot to include that Rex was in a <span style="font-size: large;">pet shipping container, stationed at his whining insistance along<span style="font-size: large;">side his master's casket. Can't believe they left that par<span style="font-size: large;">t out.</span></span></span></span></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">On a personal note I do not agree with the theme. I think the <b>wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have nothing to do with protection of our rights, freedoms, liberties, or so that we can "live in peace"</b> as noted in the story lead-in line. That is utter rubbish! Those wars have made us less secure, not more, and indebted us in the process. And our grandchildre<span style="font-size: large;">n will have to live with the blowback from our wars <span style="font-size: large;">over the past decade.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">-----------------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">O<span style="font-size: large;">K. Still her<span style="font-size: large;">e? Probably had to get another box of tissues from storage, right?<span style="font-size: large;"> Ready for the sack lunch flight fiasco? Here we go <span style="font-size: large;">. . .</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I included this one because it is a <span style="font-size: large;">funny bastardized version of an <a href="http://www.snopes.com/politics/military/lunch.asp">American tale</a>, changed by someone with (extremely) limited intellect to supposedly fit the Candian conte<span style="font-size: large;">xt, and widely distributed in Canada.<span style="font-size: large;"> It is goofy because almost nothing fits the Canadian context<span style="font-size: large;">, and it is still goofy in the American context</span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">On a perso<span style="font-size: large;">na<span style="font-size: large;">l note, I used <span style="font-size: large;">to live on a Cana<span style="font-size: large;">dian </span>family farm</span></span></span> that ended 1/2 mile north of the American border (see my blog photo). O<span style="font-size: large;">ur nearest neighbours were <span style="font-size: large;">Americans and we sometimes visited simply by driving "across the line" without the niceties of <span style="font-size: large;">assistance from kindly customs officials. T<span style="font-size: large;">h<span style="font-size: large;">e last time I did that <span style="font-size: large;">was because </span>I got a pick-up hung up<span style="font-size: large;"> near the border</span> with both front wheels in badger holes, and walked a short distance to get<span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="font-size: large;">planks</span> from the Amer<span style="font-size: large;">ican nei<span style="font-size: large;">ghbours. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Because of the close proximity to Americans I am quite aware that people living only hundred<span style="font-size: large;">s of yards apart can have significant language differences, and I consider myself conversant in American<span style="font-size: large;">ese which for some bizarre reason they refer to as English</span></span>. </span> And you don't nee<span style="font-size: large;">d that contact to understand <b>the term "sack <span style="font-size: large;">lunch" is American; I have never heard it in Canada.<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Americans get their <span style="font-size: large;">groceries in sacks, Canadians in bags.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">And who has ever heard of even a bag lunch on a Canadian <span style="font-size: large;">airline coming <span style="font-size: large;">from Alberta or BC to (probably) Ottawa? Or an airline that announces food availability an hour into the flight? I used to have a drink and a snack between Saskatoon and Winnipeg, about a 50 minute flight. Do they really serve sack lunches on some American airlines?</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">In my lifetime I have known many people in the Canadian military, some close friends from high school. <span style="font-size: large;">And also some American counterparts who we used to hold ke<span style="font-size: large;">g parties for after they were drafted <span style="font-size: large;">to</span> protec<span style="font-size: large;">t the A<span style="font-size: large;">meric<span style="font-size: large;">an way of life</span></span> from communism in Viet Nam</span>. </span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Perhaps soldiers are different now th<span style="font-size: large;">an in</span></span> my <span style="font-size: large;">misspent youth, but <b>this $5 lunch thing<span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="font-size: large;">seeming expensive</span></span> reeks of implausibility</b>.<span style="font-size: large;"> A <span style="font-size: large;">Big Mac me<span style="font-size: large;">al deal costs more<span style="font-size: large;">; I can remember when the motto for that meal was "<span style="font-size: large;">c</span>hange back from a dollar".</span></span></span></span></span> <span style="font-size: large;">Most of the enlisted ranks that I have known were hard-drinking folk. On the night prior to shipping out to a major training exercise they were either with a girlf<span style="font-size: large;">riend or in a bar, or perhaps both. <b>I expect the 10 soldiers were hung over and in no mood for food.</b> Let's remember that $5 barely covers a beer and tip th<span style="font-size: large;">ese days, and <span style="font-size: large;">probably isn't even close in a titty bar. Jeez, I can remember paying $<span style="font-size: large;">5-$10 in the mid-1970<span style="font-size: large;">s just for the cover charge in<span style="font-size: large;"> topless bars in Montr<span style="font-size: large;">eal. <b>The<span style="font-size: large;"> soldiers</span> were probably both b</b><span style="font-size: large;"><b>roke and hung over, waiting for the next pay cheque so they could do it again; that's the military personnel I knew</b>.<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I may b<span style="font-size: large;">e corrected<span style="font-size: large;"> on this point, but I believe military personnel in both America and Canada have a per diem expense account to cover any necessary meals and lodging when moving from one location to another. So I'm leaning far more to the hung over theory than the broke one.</span></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">"Once, someone bought me a lunch. It was an act of kindness I never forgot." <span style="font-size: large;">This pilot must have had an uneven<span style="font-size: large;">tful life, or perhaps one time he was homeless and living under a bridge. Many times people have bought me lunch and many times I have bought o<span style="font-size: large;">ther people lunc<span style="font-size: large;">h. <span style="font-size: large;">But I don't remember them. I do remember <span style="font-size: large;">family buyi<span style="font-size: large;">ng my lunch on my birthday last month. Other than that I can recall Howie Larkie buying <span style="font-size: large;">me a few lunches in Winnipeg in the early 1970s; Howie was the local Labatt's representative, an unforgettable character. <b>This whole "act of kindness I never forgot" is excessively hokey.</b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Another reason I think the flight captain may have been a homeless man <span style="font-size: large;">recently is that as he came down the aisle he had to scan the seat numbers along the way. He's the captain and he doesn't know the location (at least approximate) of <span style="font-size: large;">every seat number on his aircraft? <span style="font-size: large;">I want to be <span style="font-size: large;">on this guy's Do Not Fly L<span style="font-size: large;">ist, <span style="font-size: large;">just for my<span style="font-size: large;"> own safety</span></span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">And the captain just strolls down the aisle? I thought these days they are instructed to stay in the cabin wi<span style="font-size: large;">th a handgun, waiting for the next wacko to set his sho<span style="font-size: large;">e or genitals on fire. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">As the Snopes people st<span style="font-size: large;">ate, this story could be true, b<span style="font-size: large;">ut they have been unable to verify it. <b>To me it is just plain goofy</b><span style="font-size: large;"><b>. </b> <span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Surely there are better stories with verifi<span style="font-size: large;">able acts that people could for<span style="font-size: large;">ward me. Still, I appreci<span style="font-size: large;">ate receiving them because they confirm in my mind how gullible <span style="font-size: large;">ou<span style="font-size: large;">r society is as a whole. <span style="font-size: large;">The kinds of tales people gush over in e-mails or the social media give me insight into peoples' thought processes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">----------------------------------------</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Very few people question the origin or intent</span> <span style="font-size: large;">of the<span style="font-size: large;"> numerous pro-military fables on the internet. To me they are just a small <span style="font-size: large;">part of the propaganda used to control the thought proces<span style="font-size: large;">ses and behav<span style="font-size: large;">iou<span style="font-size: large;">rs of the populace. Rare is the individual like me who <span style="font-size: large;">laugh a<span style="font-size: large;">t these silly tales, invoking the wrath of strangers, friends and families alike.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is politically incorrect to be critical of the<span style="font-size: large;"> American or Canadian military and of the foreign policies that are making them increasingly disrespected ar<span style="font-size: large;">ound the world. <span style="font-size: large;">Strong critics tend to get put on special lists of suspected subversives. </span>To get a better idea of why this is the case, I would recommend watching the CBC <span style="font-size: large;">series "<span style="font-size: large;">Love<span style="font-size: large;">, Hate and Propaganda" hosted by George </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Stroumboulopoulos<span style="font-size: large;">, which can be viewed online <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/lovehatepropaganda/">here</a>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span> <span style="font-size: large;"> Yes, it is several hou<span style="font-size: large;">rs long. But very little of value can be obtained without a time commitment.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">I hold no special reverence for military personnel. They are no more deserving of praise than farmers, miners, <span style="font-size: large;">forest workers, truck drivers<span style="font-size: large;">,</span> <span style="font-size: large;">rig workers, or </span>industrial plant employees. People in all those occupations do what they do to earn income and provide for their families. And I have known people who died in all those occupations, providing the materials that the rest of the population takes for granted every day. <b><span style="font-size: large;">No-one ever bought them sack lunches<span style="font-size: large;"> in appreciation for what they contribute</span>.</span> </b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><b> </b></span><br />
<br />Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-21315316161580338152012-12-02T12:42:00.000-06:002012-12-02T12:45:41.938-06:00Facebook Privacy Settings Hoax<div style="text-align: center;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: large;">"<i><b>Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead</b>.</i>" -- Benjamin Franklin</span></blockquote>
</div>
<span style="font-size: large;">"<i><b>Four score and seven years ago I found that not everything on the internet is true, regardless of how many times repeated</b>.</i>" -- Abraham Lincoln</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The first quote above is real, and the second is obviously made up. If you accepted the second at face value you have a severe gullibility problem that needs to be addressed.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">With respect to the first quote, all criminal collaborators understand the truth therein. I submit that anyone with two or more "Friends" on Facebook should take this saying to heart (unless, of course, those Friends are deceased). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>You should never expect privacy on the internet. <span style="font-size: large;">The expression <span style="font-size: large;">"</span>internet privacy" is an oxymor<span style="font-size: large;">on. </span></span>You should assume that all your postings<span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="font-size: large;">and every site you visit</span></span> are backed up on a server somewhere and could be available to almost anyone anywhere at any point in the future</b>. Ever hear about <a href="http://wikileaks.org/">Wikileaks</a> or the hacker group <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29">Anonymous</a>? Government security agencies <a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/03/government-power-being-used-to-stifle-dissent-not-to-keep-us-safe.html">regularly monitor the social media</a> for so-called subversives (a group I may be in, since I openly criticize many government policies and actions), and <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/social-media-tactical-intelligence-collection-spying-and-propaganda-using-facebook-twitter/29288">government agencies use the social media for propaganda</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">What I find most baffling is that the same people who post the most personal things on the social media suddenly become concerned about their privacy settings. You may have seen people post items like: "Finished moving into new house at 123 Gullible Lane", with photos showing furniture and electronics. A few weeks later there may be a post "Woohoo! Going to Costa Rica Dec. 20-Jan 5". I can remember when burglary used to be like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates -- thieves never knew what they were going to get. Now anyone with rudimentary hacking skills can peruse potential targets without leaving home.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The Facebook privacy settings issue I deal with in this post is the one raised in this message which I have seen many times:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> <span class="messageBody" data-ft="{"type":3}"><span class="userContent"> </span></span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="messageBody" data-ft="{"type":3}"><span class="userContent">To
all my FB friends: I request that you please do something for me ... I
want to stay PRIVATELY connected with you. However, with the recent
changes in FB, the "public" can now see activities in ANY wall. This
happens when our friend hits "like" or "comment" and then automatically,
their friends would see our posts to...o. Unfortunately, we cannot
change this setting by ourselves because Facebook has configured it this
way....So I'm asking for your help. PLEASE place your mouse over my
name above (DO NOT CLICK), a window will appear, now move the mouse on
“FRIENDS" (also without clicking), then down to "Settings", click here
and a list will appear. REMOVE the CHECK on "COMMENTS & LIKE" and
also "PHOTOS" by clicking on each one. By doing this, my activity
amongst my friends and family will no longer become public. Thank you
very much for doing this....</span></span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-size: large;">The first thing that tells me this could be a hoax (which it is) is the EXCESSIVE USE OF CAPS. But instead of the normal proliferation of exclamation marks this message uses bastardized ellipses for some sentence enders.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">What I did to determine this was a hoax was pop the sentence "<i><span class="messageBody" data-ft="{"type":3}"><span class="userContent">By doing this, my activity
amongst my friends and family will no longer become public</span></span></i>" into a search engine. You could use a smaller quote from the passage, and get similar results. I got 3.7 million returns, of which the first 4 appear below (click for sharper image):</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitVJJHQ5_-IZ25svk2OVT4kQC4WN4xPMx7e0r2h3j9rUHjoM3meGOHaXI6jhp8sDbjsiAQX31xnY6_xmCUcFKcO6AJBdpVnOPLmxilOaVI0z3y4s4p3BMPhmUjFGy1Kmjx0kcGxfQKzixw/s1600/FB+Privacy+Search.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitVJJHQ5_-IZ25svk2OVT4kQC4WN4xPMx7e0r2h3j9rUHjoM3meGOHaXI6jhp8sDbjsiAQX31xnY6_xmCUcFKcO6AJBdpVnOPLmxilOaVI0z3y4s4p3BMPhmUjFGy1Kmjx0kcGxfQKzixw/s320/FB+Privacy+Search.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Note that the Snopes link is first. This is one of the most popular sites for examining the truth in internet postings. So here is the <a href="http://www.snopes.com/computer/facebook/timeline.asp">Snopes link</a>. Snopes quotes from a <a href="http://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2011/09/26/facebook-ticker-privacy-scare/">S<span style="font-size: large;">o</span>phos article</a> which is worth readin<span style="font-size: large;">g; it seems to be the best analysis I have found.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The <a href="http://techie-buzz.com/scams/stay-privately-connected-facebook.html">second link</a> is some internet tech site where the writer has no prob<span style="font-size: large;">lem calling this a hoax</span>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The fourth link is to <a href="http://facecrooks.com/Internet-Safety-Privacy/hoax-alert-to-all-my-fb-friends-i-want-to-stay-privately-connected-mouse-over-my-name.html">Facecrooks</a> where the<span style="font-size: large;"> privacy settings notice is referred to as a hoax. Facecrooks also refers to the Sophos article linked two paragraphs above.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">If you read <span style="font-size: large;">some of the articles linked above you will und<span style="font-size: large;">erstand the issue better. Basically, the solution is to ensure t<span style="font-size: large;">hat you use the "Friends" or "C<span style="font-size: large;">ustom Settings" to restrict who can view your postings<span style="font-size: large;">, and <b>ask your Friends to do the same. The problem seems to arise when people use the <span style="font-size: large;">"Friends of Friends" <span style="font-size: large;">or "Public" settings, so don't use them and ask your Friends not to also.</span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">You can review and change your Facebook Privacy Setti<span style="font-size: large;">ngs by clicking on the little arrow <span style="font-size: large;">at the extreme upper right of you<span style="font-size: large;">r Facebook ho<span style="font-size: large;">me page. Here's a Facebook link on how to set yo<span style="font-size: large;">ur <a href="http://www.facebook.com/settings/?tab=privacy">privacy setting on a</a><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.facebook.com/settings/?tab=privacy">n individual post</a> and another Facebook link on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/help/privacy">all issues related to privacy</a>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">------------------------------------------------</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Unrelated to the above, I would encourage anyone who questions images on<span style="font-size: large;"> the internet to become aquainted with the <a href="http://www.tineye.com/">Tineye site</a>. I have a plugin f<span style="font-size: large;">or this site on Firefox so all I have t<span style="font-size: large;">o d<span style="font-size: large;">o to find where e<span style="font-size: large;">lse<span style="font-size: large;"> the image has appeared on the internet is <span style="font-size: large;">right click the image, and click the Tineye option and in less than a second I <span style="font-size: large;">will have all v<span style="font-size: large;">ersions of th<span style="font-size: large;">e image. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">This is es<span style="font-size: large;">pecially handy in debunking <span style="font-size: large;">hunting and fishing <span style="font-size: large;">fables that I get regu<span style="font-size: large;">larly <span style="font-size: large;">via e<span style="font-size: large;">-mai<span style="font-size: large;">l. But it is also good at determining whether a<span style="font-size: large;">n image has been altered, and for tracking down where it was first posted.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-83955103995070419942012-04-27T20:23:00.000-06:002012-04-27T20:23:06.674-06:00Trayvon Martin 6: Similar Mob Rule Events<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>Trayvon Martin 6: Similar Mob Rule Events</b></u></span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Human beings either function as individuals or as members of a pack. There's a switch inside us, deep in our spirit, that you can turn one way or the other. It's almost always the case that our worst behaviour comes out when we're switched to the mob setting.</i></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/j/jaronlanie417302.html">Jaron Lanier</a></blockquote><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span> </div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">No matter how o<a href="http://www.obesityepidemic.org/obesitypredictions.html">bese</a> we become physically, we are still capable of leaping to conclusions. And people who rarely walk more than a few blocks can be champions at rushing to judgement. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I am fond of saying, a collection of emotionally aroused, poorly informed individuals does not sum to the mythical “wisdom of crowds”. At best it results in groupthink and at worst a dangerous mob.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am encouraged by the number of people who recognized the reaction to Trayvon's shooting as mob rule bordering on hysteria from the outset. I am also encouraged that some of them understand it is part of a pattern of such events. Still, those who understand both are a small minority. </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Let's review some previous mob rule type events. </span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>1987, New York State, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tawana_Brawley">Tawana Brawley</a>.</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> This 15-year-old African-American girl falsely accused some cops and a prosecutor of rape.</span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Brawley's two lawyers and Al Sharpton, notorious race baiter, whipped the media into a frenzy (see video of Al Sharpton <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-kBY5x2YbM">here</a>). Even Bill Cosby got in on the commentary and supported Brawley, as did Spike Lee. </span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Brawley, her lawyers, and Sharpton were successfully sued for defamation by the accused prosecutor. Sharpton was found liable for seven instances of defamation. But the prosecutor's life was already destroyed by the allegations. And Al Sharpton's damages were paid by his supporters like Johnnie Cohrane.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>1996, Atlanta, Georgia, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Jewell">Richard Jewell</a>.</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Jewell"></a> Jewell was pilloried in the media, accused of having planted a bomb at the 1996 Summer Olympics. The bomb had been planted by Eric Rudolph. Jewel successfully sued various media outlets, but died at a relatively young age of 44.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>2006, Durham, North Carolina, Duke lacrosse.</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> One of the best examples of mob rule is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_lacrosse_case#Aftermath">Duke University lacrosse</a> team case. In that case Mike Nifong, the district attorney for Durham County, NC took an alleged rape case of an African American woman, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crystal_Mangum">Crystal Mangum</a>, and used it to race bait his way into re-election. </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>There was absolutely no substance to the allegation that members of the Duke lacrosse team had participated in a rape</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">, and that became clear as time went on, even before charges were laid. But that didn't stop many Americans from castigating the lacrosse players. </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I can understand the prosecutor and the police cutting corners in an attempt to convict the innocent. It happens all the time. I understand it, but certainly don't condone it. The prosecutor's job is to ensure the truth is put before the court, not to secure a conviction.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">But it was inexcusable for some of the Duke faculty (“the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_88#Duke_faculty_groups">group of 88</a>”) to publicly castigate the lacrosse players on zero evidence. And some of the students (the “<a href="http://durhamwonderland.blogspot.ca/2007/02/when-potbangers-were-riding-high.html">pot bangers</a>”) piled on with rallies, the most extreme advocating castration of lacrosse players.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Duke University President Richard Brodhead waffled on almost everything, offering little support for the legal presumption of innocence of the lacrosse players, and seemed intimidated by the “group of 88”. He would surely be a starter on the All-American Academic Wimps team.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">But the mass media were the worst actors, in my opinion. The New York Times was especially biased in its coverage, as was a local Durham paper, the Herald-Sun. This <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/us/25duke.html?pagewanted=all">piece of crap</a> by Duff Wilson of the NYT is the point where they went into CYA mode, and began backpedaling. You need a legal background and/or ongoing knowledge of the issues to understand how bad the article is. People like Nancy Grace and Wendy Murphy stirred up the public with their indignation and inaccurate statements. </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The blogger K. C. Johnson did a good job of explaining what was happening on a daily basis. A sample of what he wrote about Nancy Grace's coverage appears <a href="http://durhamwonderland.blogspot.ca/2007/02/graceless.html">here</a>. Here's his <a href="http://durhamwonderland.blogspot.ca/2006/12/wendy-murphy-file.html">dissection of Wendy Murphy</a>. Johnson's coverage was far superior to that of the mainstream media.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Al Sharpton went on <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,192277,00.html">Bill O'Reilly's show</a> and as usual reiterated his theme of racism, and was encouraged that black organizations were supporting the "victim". <a href="http://johninnorthcarolina.blogspot.ca/2006/04/rev-jesse-jackson-steps-into-duke.html">Jesse Jackso</a>n upped the ante by offering Rainbow Coalition money to pay for the "victim's" tuition. The NAACP went into the fray early, attempting to <strike>interfere with</strike> <a href="http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?s=4736295&clienttype=printable">monitor the investigation/prosecution</a>. Later, after Nifong had completed his media tour spouting lies about the lacrosse players, the NAACP said <a href="http://sweetness-light.com/archive/naacp-wants-gag-order-in-duke-rape-case">they would seek a gag order</a> on the lacrosse players when they began to tell their side to the media.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">There were numerous other persons involved in railroading the lacrosse players. The book </span></span><a href="http://www.amazon.ca/Until-Proven-Innocent-Correctness-Injustices/dp/0312369123"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Until Proven Innocent</i></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> by Stuart Taylor and K. C. Johnson gives a good account of the entire debacle. Various law suits are still in progress, with lacrosse players seeking redress for harm done by the mob rush to judgement.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Incidentally, the prosecutor who replaced the disgraced Mike Nifong was fired recently for tirades against a judge. Read about the rise and fall of Tracey Cline <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/03/03/1900817/the-rise-and-fall-of-tracey-cline.html">here</a>. And if you didn't read the link to Crystal Mangum above, you might not know she is currently incarcerated on a murder charge, perhaps the last arrest of her troubled life.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>2011, Durham, North Carolina, Alaina Giordano</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">. Yes, Durham again. Only this one is not a criminal issue, but the actions of a mother upset with a child custody order. This was the case of Alaina Giordano whose husband obtained primary physical custody of the two children of the marriage. </span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Giordano had level four breast cancer and she mis-characterized the custody award as having been based on this factor </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>alone</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">. Giordano's case caught my eye because she made effective use of social media in addition to the always inaccurate, sensationalist mainstream media. A gullible public lapped it up and people vilified her husband, and signed an online petition to have the judge removed. </span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>You may rightly assume that I have little respect for the analytical skills of the average citizen.</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> I was amazed at how many people wrote highly opinionated messages </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>without even reading the <a href="http://www.wral.com/asset/news/local/2011/06/01/9672149/custody_order.PDF">trial transcript</a></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">. Of course the vast majority of those people would have no legal training and some would not understand the award even if they read it.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I read the transcript (three times) before I formed an opinion. It was a difficult case, and the judge said as much. The husband is not a person deserving admiration. But neither is the wife. She was the one consistently blocking the father's access to the children, not the other way around (as noted by the judge). </span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">After reading the transcript I see no grounds for appeal. There are no controversial issues in a legal sense. The mental and physical capabilities of the respective parents to act in the best interests of the children, at present and into the future, are always considerations the court must take into account.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">After seeing the mother's “bleeding hearts” con job in the media, I can guess at some of the behaviours and actions the judge observed in the four day trial, as well as those described in the court-mandated psychologist report.</span></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One of the points made in the award is that the parents needed to stop using the kids as pawns in their disputes. So what did Giordano do after receiving the award? She went on national television with the kids, castigating the judge, and by implication her husband. Go figure! And of course none of the media interviewers asked her how putting the kids on national television was in their best interests. Disgusting!</span></span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">As part of her disinformation campaign, Giordano had her publicist friend issue periodic press releases. As you can guess, those releases got picked up and published verbatim by the mainstream media. Many people responded to them as though each release was news, a form of investigative reporting by the outlet they read them on. Nitwits!</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I had started an outline for a lengthy blog article on how Alaina Giordano deceived the public, and hopefully will get it up after I finish with Trayvon. As of today (April 27, 2012) Giordano is being discharged from hospital and entering hospice care (according to her <a href="http://www.facebook.com/friendsofalaina">Facebook site</a>). The mainstream media have long forgotten about her, but a core group of gullibles hang out on her Facebook site.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Mob rule is not only an American thing</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">. I have lived in </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>two</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> Saskatchewan communities where citizens were wrongfully charged with satanic ritual abuse in the late 1980s and early 1990s. One was in <a href="http://www.religioustolerance.org/ra_reddeer.htm">Saskatoon</a>, and the other in <a href="http://www.religioustolerance.org/ra_marte.htm">Martensville</a>, a bedroom community near Saskatoon. </span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Most of the public had assumed guilt of the accused, because they were constantly told in the media, "kids don't make this stuff up". But kids do repeat what overly zealous social workers, cops and prosecutors coach them to say. </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I knew one of the senior prosecutors who refused the cases for lack of evidence, but that didn't stop some of his subordinates from proceeding. The employment and reputations of those wrongly implicated were seriously damaged. Some of them were awarded monetary damages later, but their lives were forever changed. Whenever their names come up people immediately think “child abuse”, not “wrongful prosecution”.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In 1969 I was living in Saskatoon about a mile from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gail_Miller_%28murder_victim%29">Gail Miller</a> murder. After 23 years in prison David Milgaard was finally exonerated by DNA evidence that proved Larry Fisher was the murderer. To this day some involved with the prosecution have not come to terms with the fact the wrong man was charged and convicted. And some citizens are still convinced that Milgaard did it, and that there was some form of conspiracy to falsify DNA evidence.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Saskatchewan events influenced my thinking greatly, having seen how normally rational people that I know personally can turn on others without a shred of evidence, merely lurid allegations made in the media.</b> </span></span> <br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Please think of mob rule, rush to judgement, events like the above ones when encountering media reports on Trayvon Martin. How much is factual, and how much is merely allegation or opinion?</span></span></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-3795771488179093802012-04-12T17:00:00.000-06:002012-04-12T17:00:05.930-06:00Trayvon Martin 5: My Theories on The Shooting<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">After George Zimmerman spotted Trayvon Martin loitering near or at the gated community clubhouse, both participants eyed each other carefully, perhaps nervously. </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When Martin started running it was most likely because he was apprehensive of Zimmerman, not because he was doing anything wrong. Zimmerman seems to have interpreted this as guilty action, that Martin had something to hide. Remember there had been several recent break-ins.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is not a known fact (to the public at least) that Martin was returning from the 7-Eleven; this is just one of many bits of hearsay advanced by Ben Crump, one of the Martin family lawyers. Martin may have been to the 7-Eleven. He may also have scored some dope, and may have been having a toke on the way home. He also may have been surveying the houses for future yard thefts and/or break-ins. All accounts of what he was doing prior to Zimmerman's call to police are supposition only. The proof of one does not exclude the others.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">If I were Martin, and wanting to avoid Zimmerman, I would want to stay in the well-lighted areas, while taking the most direct route home. To maximize good lighting I would have gone straight east for about 400' to Retreat View Circle, then straight south about 400' on a (presumably) well-lit street to the front door of Brandy Green's townhouse. Conversely, if I were afraid of Zimmerman cutting me off on Retreat View Circle with his SUV, I would want the most direct route, and would have gone straight east about 300' to the sidewalk tee, then south for about 400' along the less brightly lit sidewalk to the back door of Brandy's townhouse. I would lean to the last possibility, because it would get Martin out of Zimmerman's line of sight sooner, and into a darker area where he is less likely to be seen. He had a distance lead and probably was not afraid of Zimmerman catching him after the initial sprint.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The timeline makes it a certainty that Martin remained in the north end of the rows of houses, or if he went south, he doubled back to engage Zimmerman near the north end.</b> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">What is not known is how the fight started. I lean toward Zimmerman's allegations that Martin hit him, knocking him down. Zimmerman had no motive to hit Martin. All he needed was to keep him in sight until the cops arrived, which he could do simply by talking to him. Martin, on the other hand, had not gone home, but had hid somewhere before confronting Zimmerman. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">While this is pure speculation, I see Martin as the more likely aggressor. Zimmerman's allegations of Martin hitting him and knocking him down are supported by the police report indicating that Zimmerman had a bleeding nose, injuries to the back of his head, and a wet back as though he had been lying in the grass.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I grew up in a rough coal mining town in the middle of an oil patch. It is hilarious to read the surmising of people who assume that George seriously outweighed Trayvon, and therefore Trayvon could not have been the aggressor. Weight might matter in organized wrestling, but is hardly determinative in street fights which operate under less stringent rules, as demonstrated by Paul Newman in this <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWTNBRs7Ccs">video clip</a> from <i>Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid</i>. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Zimmerman is not 240 pounds as Ben Crump would have you believe. I took a screen capture of him in the cop shop, along with a screen capture of one of the officers taken as close as possible at the same spot for comparison.</span></span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQ2WyfT_wHiBZe3fnQPxcioIftoweKm1jNNVjF2wF-pxeu5XU8hU1axrK4EEqAZbP2XbaOBLuP37JCYTYO93EpY2RNtpKBEuEQ91Xb81HlHFXody4rxWhWPN8iSFEySn8EnTOO5VArAXF/s1600/Arrest-GZ-Cop.jpg"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="174" name="graphics1" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQ2WyfT_wHiBZe3fnQPxcioIftoweKm1jNNVjF2wF-pxeu5XU8hU1axrK4EEqAZbP2XbaOBLuP37JCYTYO93EpY2RNtpKBEuEQ91Xb81HlHFXody4rxWhWPN8iSFEySn8EnTOO5VArAXF/s320/Arrest-GZ-Cop.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">While Ben Crump would have you believe that Martin was only 140 pounds, the partial police report listed his estimated weight at 160, which seems more likely from the more recent images of Trayvon I have seen. I'm guessing they had about a 40 pound weight differential, not 100 pounds.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">But the most hilarious part is that weight has little to do with it. Mark Twain is credited with saying something to the effect that it's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that counts. I had a classmate in grade 12 (about 5'11" and 140 pounds) whose favourite weekend pastime was beating up Junior A hockey players and big, dumb rig workers.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Serious fights are nothing like the sissy stuff shown on YouTube where people flail around endlessly, basically sparring with the air. Most serious fights I have seen, and a few I have been in, are over within 5 to 10 seconds, when one of the combatants is stunned and goes down, often due to a sucker punch. After that it's just the victor pounding or kicking the vanquished into submission.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I've seen several two-hit fights -- the first guy hits the second guy and the second guy hits the ground, or ice (hockey), or floor (bar), sometimes out cold.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Here's a YouTube <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M7qNuH59Uk">video</a> that starts as a drunken semi-serious sparring match. Watch the smaller guy get in a good punch at the 19 second mark, and put the big guy down. Sometimes that punch is the first one thrown. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>A gangly teenager like Martin could easily sucker punch Zimmerman and put him down. And I think that's what happened.</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Officer Timothy Smith wrote in his incident report that after handcuffing George and removing his handgun and holster:</span></span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>While I was in such close contact with Zimmerman, I could observe that his back appeared to be wet and covered in grass as if he had been laying on his back on the ground. Zimmerman was also bleeding from the nose and back of his head.</i></span></span></blockquote><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am somewhat suspicious of the "as if he had been laying on his back on the ground" part; it sounds contrived and offers an opinion which was not needed. Officer Smith says nothing about whether Martin's back was wet (he was found lying on his stomach), nor does Officer Ricardo Ayala, the first officer to make contact with Martin following the shooting.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">If Martin's back was wet it means nothing. They could have rolled over each other in their struggle. But if it was dry, it most assuredly would indicate that Martin was the agressor.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I would like to know if the bullet exited. Neither of the two short police reports mention an exit wound, but other officers, and certainly investigators with Major Crimes would have commented on the presence or absence. I'm an amateur metal detectorist, and if the bullet exited and was in the area of the fight it would be relatively easy to find. A bullet in the ground near the fight would not be good for Zimmerman. The location of an exited bullet would say much about the respective locations of the combatants when the shot was fired.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I'm inclined to go with eye witness accounts that the two were wrestling on the ground when the shot occurred, although it is not clear who was on top. From the evidence made public it would appear that Zimmerman was on the bottom.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Regardless, the coroner or medical examiner will undoubtedly have forensic evidence on bullet trajectory which could narrow down the possible locations of Zimmerman and Martin. Also, the powder tattoo (or lack thereof) on Martin's clothing should define distance. I got a good laugh out of the news report stating that a funeral director had determined that Martin was not in a fight. Since when did funeral directors become medical examiners?</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">There is considerable conjecture as to who was doing the screaming heard on one of the citizen 911 calls. Zimmerman and his family say it was him; the Martin family are sure it was Trayvon. In the end it doesn't matter (other than partially discrediting Zimmerman's account if it turns out to have been Martin). <b>Martin could have been on top of Zimmerman, and then seen his handgun, and perhaps Zimmerman reaching for it. Martin could well have been screaming for his life, knowing that if Zimmerman got the handgun out, his life might be over soon. I haven't seen anyone else advance this theory.</b> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">There has been considerable ink wasted on who saw what that night, and who heard what. It's mostly irrelevant because eye witness testimony is one of the least reliable forms of evidence. Many people have been wrongly convicted of major crimes by eye witness testimony alone, and sometimes executed, before conclusive evidence clears them. But what is recorded on the citizens' 911 calls will be evidence for the timeline of the fight just before the shooting.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I learned about the unreliability of eye witness testimony back in 1969 when I was taking a law enforcement class from an ex-RCMP officer. As he was droning on one day, the classroom door opened, a man entered, pointed a handgun at the instructor, said something, and fired some (blank) shots (loud!) Then he left. The instructor then gave us about 10 minutes to write down everthing we could remember about the incident. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Then he gathered those accounts and gave us a specific questionnaire. What was the shooter wearing? What was his height and weight? What hand was the gun in? How many shots were fired? How long between the first shot and each suceeding shot? Did the man say anything (if so, what?) What did he do with the gun after shooting? What (if anything) did he say after shooting? What did the instructor say (if anything) before or after the shooting? What (if anything) did any member of the class say? How long was the gunman in the room? You get the drift. If you've ever been in one of these exercises you'll understand why eye witness testimony is unreliable.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">From the evidence made public there is nothing to discredit Zimmerman's claim of self defence. I don't see how the "stand your ground" rule needs to be applied. If Zimmerman was on his back, stunned, getting pounded, and in fear that he was going to be seriously injured or killed, he would be justified in using potentially lethal force with or without a "stand your ground" law. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One of Zimmerman's spokesmen (probably brother or father) stated that the police had George walk the site and explain his locations and actions the morning after the shooting. This would seem logical. And there certainly could be some officers thinking George should be charged with manslaughter, e.g. And a prosecutor could very well look at all the evidence available <b>at that time</b> and decline to support the laying of a charge <b>at that time</b>.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The public seems to be under the mistaken impression that someone injured or killed is entitled to his/her day in criminal court. <b>There is no such legal principle.</b> The principle is that <b>an accused</b> is entitled to his/her day in court, to have a fair trial before being sentenced or set free. Ethically, a prosecutor should not proceed with a case where he/she does not have a reasonable chance of securing a conviction, regardless of personal feelings of culpability. Or politics.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Now that Zimmerman has been charged with second degree murder, the Martin family should fade from the scene, because all they have asked for publicly is for Zimmerman to be arrested and charged. If the Martin family, or more likely their lawyers, continue to make public statements then there is another agenda at work. I will deal with this in a later post on why this particular story is deemed newsworthy.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">There is nothing stopping the Martin family from seeking civil remedies against Zimmerman, and potentially the community association and the City of Sanford. That's why Ben Crump is there; he's a civil litigator. But the civil litigation can be planned more carefully if there is a criminal trial first.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I'd sooner be defence counsel than prosecutor on this one. But at this point I know very little, only the small amount of evidence that is in the public domain. That's only the tip of the iceberg; there is much more evidence that is not public. There always is.</span></span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-65080146319249171152012-04-12T14:53:00.000-06:002012-04-12T14:53:02.900-06:00Trayvon Martin 4: Trayvon Lies in Wait (timeline analysis)<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One of the first things I do in any investigation is establish a timeline of events, a concept most journalists seem unacquainted with. For instance, some journalists reported that Trayvon went out to get snacks during the NBA All-Star game. On March 13, Miami Herald reporter Fabiola Santiago (who supposedly taught journalism at two Florida universities)</span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/13/2692045/unarmed-teens-killing-in-sanford.html">wrote</a>:</span></span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>I<span style="font-size: large;">t was the halftime of the NBA All-Star Game on Sunday, Feb. 26, when Martin left the townhouse in a gated community and went to buy snacks at a nearby 7-Eleven. He was wearing jeans, a hooded gray sweatshirt and red-and-white Air Jordans.</span></i></span></span></blockquote><div align="LEFT"><br />
</div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">How stupid or lazy do you have to be to report something like that? Trayvon <b>was shot around 7:16 p.m</b>. and the NBA All-Star game, being played about 20 miles south in Orlando, <b>started at 7:30 p.m.</b> See why I have so little respect for journalists? If the reporter can't even get this right, what else is wrong in the article? Having questioned this reporter's competence, I now leave myself open to cries of "racist!" because the reporter was a Cuban refugee.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Below is a Google map of the gated community. "GZ Vehicle" indicates the area on Twin Trees where George Zimmerman parked while observing Trayvon Martin. </span></span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsiX-YLOjV_Ywxsvi_V49_N6F_Qd0kEwdJRLuZHRe9K4jTmy3Wwe-nuauxqHegWTArXyh5GCCVFlW7fKKqsEglw4OlDGnJ2eWHXWEyXIuBjMBnAozYvaVOiJNwesRxHb3uEP9mgT4HdbBL/s1600/TwinLakes1b.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="219" name="graphics1" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsiX-YLOjV_Ywxsvi_V49_N6F_Qd0kEwdJRLuZHRe9K4jTmy3Wwe-nuauxqHegWTArXyh5GCCVFlW7fKKqsEglw4OlDGnJ2eWHXWEyXIuBjMBnAozYvaVOiJNwesRxHb3uEP9mgT4HdbBL/s320/TwinLakes1b.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Next is the same map with different additions. <b>I have marked the tee intersection of the sidewalk as "0" (zero).</b> Then I scaled off distances in 100 foot intervals. Those to the left (west) where Zimmerman parked are in aqua, the one to the right (east) is in lime green, and those down from the tee (south, towards Brandy Green's townhouse) are in blue.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">You might want to click on this map below and print it off, or save it and load it in an image viewer, for easier flipping back and forth between discussion and map locations.</span></span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPms7NY1oH4bKj0ED3YGVjpJIu7THPFQSma0rXz6BhXN4k-TzPXrqc3K67nNH9KGryRiYncAQeKlOliYB4L7fp5gbrAGU5PO03c7kZmE94heCsagqNtClyO0n141UyGcm9d1iFUrKGjLaw/s1600/TwinLakes2b.jpg"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="208" name="graphics2" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPms7NY1oH4bKj0ED3YGVjpJIu7THPFQSma0rXz6BhXN4k-TzPXrqc3K67nNH9KGryRiYncAQeKlOliYB4L7fp5gbrAGU5PO03c7kZmE94heCsagqNtClyO0n141UyGcm9d1iFUrKGjLaw/s320/TwinLakes2b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One thing that becomes evident (when combining this map with Zimmerman's call to police) is that the absolute maximum distance Trayvon had to travel from when George stated "He's running" is 800 feet (0.15 miles). That would be from the 300' (aqua) mark on Twin Trees across from the clubhouse, to the 100' (lime green) mark on Retreat View Circle, then down to about the 400' (blue) mark to Brandy Green's townhouse. I would estimate the minimum distance to be 500'. The most probable scenarios put the distance between 600-700'.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I have also located the red <b><span style="color: red;">X</span></b> for the shooting location at the 100' mark south of the sidewalk tee, <b>as a maximum distance from the tee for time calculations</b>; it appears to have been less distance from videos. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Here is a daylight image of the sidewalk tee (<a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/humaninterest/trayvon-martins-killing-shatters-safety-within-retreat-at-twin-lakes-in/1221799">source</a>). Trayvon would have been shot on or near the sidewalk within 100' behind the woman. Trayvon was staying less than 400' down that sidewalk. The townhouse visible past the end of the sidewalk is on the far (south) side of Twin Trees Lane, about 500' from the tee. Also note the location of the trash receptacle and the barriers between residences that would make good hiding locations.</span></span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-oziznSF1JRisbBa3YPLP1SinSHGYzg5yPPNRVv8LQp3yoxDPXy7CC0K9Gx71x3JJv2nMgxTKPilhU-2MzpwCuniKdDWIPoiBhOjZpRuaUWxTRYxdz3w5wCHKX9I56Kn-HITOSWChgkTG/s1600/SidewalkTeeWomanDog.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="221" name="graphics3" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-oziznSF1JRisbBa3YPLP1SinSHGYzg5yPPNRVv8LQp3yoxDPXy7CC0K9Gx71x3JJv2nMgxTKPilhU-2MzpwCuniKdDWIPoiBhOjZpRuaUWxTRYxdz3w5wCHKX9I56Kn-HITOSWChgkTG/s320/SidewalkTeeWomanDog.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The following images are screen shots from <a href="http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/news/seminole_news/022712-man-shot-and-killed-in-neighborhood-altercation">Fox News video coverage</a> shot February 26 and 27, 2012. It is the earliest coverage of the event that I found and is worth viewing. Note that everything that Brandy Green and Tracy Martin say about what Trayvon was doing is self-serving hearsay. They have no personal knowledge of Trayvon's travels, having gone out for a meal before Trayvon left Brandy's townhouse, and not returning until about 10:30 p.m., 3 hours after the shooting. I was particularly interested in Brandy's hearsay statement "He was sitting on the porch" because this would have been a porch of a stranger -- not her porch or the porch of a near neighbour.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The first screen capture, from 49 seconds into the video, shows some of the police at the crime scene, standing on the sidewalk slightly to the east of the tee, with the shooting location less than 100' to the left (south). Note the green trash receptacle near the tee.</span></span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF4NzFPsKwmgAp0pscIaIVxatFdOYzvglX35Lti_hXpLaWLkG3K8-IRC-xhunT1pFUFvNGNVY-5Fu_5NHFP3awFpxx8zTml5eWmFs82aeOWR2DATrXjJPWhPL5EXKJhk7Ekv-YhziMCxUC/s1600/FoxTeeCops49.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="177" name="graphics4" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF4NzFPsKwmgAp0pscIaIVxatFdOYzvglX35Lti_hXpLaWLkG3K8-IRC-xhunT1pFUFvNGNVY-5Fu_5NHFP3awFpxx8zTml5eWmFs82aeOWR2DATrXjJPWhPL5EXKJhk7Ekv-YhziMCxUC/s320/FoxTeeCops49.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The next screen capture is taken from 56 seconds into the video and shows Brandy Green and Tracy Martin, the next day (February 27), at the location they say was the shooting scene. Note the sidewalk tee and trash receptacle in the background.</span></span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_u9sYcNS1IM_TsVozLya7mxcM9Ae6feYgPve-Cqx6DtYY6Tx42vQZPYUIjZM28UafpES518GhWJLz__FKf7jSekisL2fnnQ5OcxXjgO0MUbvJV3AL6up3V3iRaVYLBf7hJgJkv10Xepki/s1600/FoxTeeGreenMartin56.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="176" name="graphics5" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_u9sYcNS1IM_TsVozLya7mxcM9Ae6feYgPve-Cqx6DtYY6Tx42vQZPYUIjZM28UafpES518GhWJLz__FKf7jSekisL2fnnQ5OcxXjgO0MUbvJV3AL6up3V3iRaVYLBf7hJgJkv10Xepki/s320/FoxTeeGreenMartin56.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> At this point it might be useful for the reader to listen to GZ's call to police, which can be found unredacted <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-gp8mrdw">here</a> or redacted <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Trayvon_Martin_Shooting_Call1.ogg">here</a>. Also essential is the partial police report which can be found <a href="http://cnninsession.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/martinpolicreport.pdf">here</a>. This can be supplemented with the police dispatch logs of GZ's calls. The original dispatch log by Sanford police that I used in my timeline disappeared, but <a href="http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/327330/george-zimmerrman-911-call-history.pdf">this backup</a> (<b>note: large .pdf</b>) seems to display identical information. I used the entries by police dispatcher "snoffke" at Terminal 21, page 46 of the report, to match timeline points in the audio tape.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Following is most of the dialogue on GZ's call with times from the start of his call and the time "snoffke" recorded the same dialogue where applicable (Z for Zimmerman, D for dispatch, material in quotes is exact language to the best of my ability):</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:04 Z - break-ins in neighbourhood, suspicious guy</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:18 Z - looks like he's up to no good, on drugs or something</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:22 Z - it's raining, he's just walking around looking about</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:26 D - white, black, or Hispanic?</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:29 Z - "He looks black"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:31 D - see what he's wearing?</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:34 Z - "dark hoody, like a gray hoody, and either jeans or sweat pants, and white tennis shoes"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:42 Z - he's here now, just staring</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:47 Z - now he's staring at me</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:56 D - he's near the clubhouse now?</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0:58 Z - "Yah, now he's coming towards me"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:04 Z - got his hand in his waist band</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:08 Z - "he's a black male"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:10 D - how old?</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:13 Z - "late teens" </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:17 Z - "something's wrong with him"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:22 Z - "he's coming to check me out"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:24 Z - "he's got something in his hands -- I don't know what his deal is"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:30 D - "we got them on the way" [officers]</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:32 D - "just let me know if this guy does anything else"</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1:37 Z - "these assholes, they always get away"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:07 Z - "shit, he's running" <span style="color: red;">[19:11:59 on dispatch report]</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:09 D - "which way is he running?" </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:10 [sounds like GZ exiting vehicle] </span></span> <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:12 Z - "down towards the other entrance to the neighbourhood"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:15 D - "which entrance is that?"</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:18 Z - "the back entrance"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:20 <span style="color: red;">[start of wind noise on GZ phone]</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:22 Z - [almost inaudible, sounds like "fucking coons"]</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:24 D - "Are you following him?"</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:25 Z - "Yah"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:26 D - "Okay, we don't need you to do that."</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:28 Z - "Okay"</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:38 Z - "He ran."</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:41 <span style="color: red;">[end of wind noise on GZ phone]</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:47 Z - [gives phone number to D]</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:54 D - do you want to meet with the officer?</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2:57 Z - "Yah."</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:01 Z - straight past the clubhouse, make a left, go past mail boxes, look for my truck</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:19 D - "What address are you parked in front of?"</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:23 Z - "I don't know. It's a cut through, so I don't know the address."</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:27 D - "Do you live in the area?"</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:32 D - "What's your apartment number?"</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:34 Z - "It's a home, it's one-nine-five-zero -- aw, crap, I don't want to give it out, I don't know where this kid is."</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3:48 Z - "Could you have them call me and I'll tell them where I'm at?" <span style="color: red;">[19:13:41 on dispatch report]</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4:01 D - "Okay, no problem, I'll notify them to call you when they're in the area."</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4:03 Z - "Thanks."</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4:04 D - "You're welcome." <span style="color: red;">[End of call]</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Now let's match up two reference points on the phone call and the dispatch log. At 2:07 GZ states "He's running" which appears at 19:11:59 on the dispatch log. At 3:48 on the phone call GZ asks for the officers to call him on arrival; this appears at 19:13:41 on the dispatch log. The time difference is 1:41 on the audio transmission and 1:42 on the dispatch log. The two timelines are consistent. The end of the call would be 19:13:57. So George and Trayvon met up some time after 19:13:57.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Note that lawyer Ben Crump, acting for the Martin family, states that he has phone records showing that Trayvon was talking to his girlfriend from 7:12 p.m. to 7:16 p.m. at which point she states (via Crump) the call was dropped. </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Here are some pedestrian travel times used in my calculations:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.0 mph = 264'/min, covers 100 feet in 22.7 seconds [slow walk -- me carrying groceries 1.5 miles, including wait times to cross streets]</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.0 mph = 352'/min, covers 100' in 17.0 sec [brisk walk] </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">8.0 mph = 704'/min, covers 100' in 8.5 sec [slow running rate that I averaged running 2 miles for conditioning when in my 30s]</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Use the information above to develop your own timeline and distances Martin and Zimmerman may have travelled at various points. Some of what I assume will turn out to be false. But it's the best I can do with the info provided. </b></span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">It seems illogical that Martin would have run easterly on Twin Trees Lane, and then around the curve to run south on Twin Trees to the first small cutout where he would go east again (Zimmerman probably would have followed with his vehicle which means it would no longer be on the east-west stretch as stated to dispatch). Also, this would be south of the shooting area and would mean Martin went north from the cutout, away from Brandy Green's residence, not south, towards it.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The more logical assumption is that both Martin and Zimmerman went straight east on Twin Trees Lane to the east-west sidewalk that is the top of the tee. I am also assuming that both actually were running, and that they ran at an average leisurely rate of 8 mph (704'/min). I am assuming that Zimmerman ran for the 21 seconds that his phone had wind noise, and that Martin ran for 34 seconds from when George said "He's running" to when the wind noise stopped on George's phone. <b>Note that at 8 mph Martin could have been home (using max. distance of 800') in 1 minute 8 sec at the most.</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">At 8 mph Zimmerman would have covered 246 feet in 21 seconds, and Martin would have covered 399 feet in 34 seconds, assuming they stop running at the same time. Zimmerman was on the phone for 1 min 23 sec after the wind noise stopped and his voice is normal, so he is either standing or walking during that time.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Let's assume Zimmerman stopped running when he reached the sidewalk tee, and calculate from there. That would put his car at least 246' west on my aqua distance markers (plus any distance that he walked before running), in sight line of the clubhouse. Let's assume (without deciding) that Trayvon started running before he got to George's SUV, say from the 300' aqua mark, within 100' of the clubhouse. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">By the time Zimmerman got to the tee Trayvon would have to be south of the point where he was shot, or on Retreat View Circle east of the tee (100' lime green mark), provided he kept moving at 8 mph. The timeline suggests that he had more than 100' lead on George, probably 150' or more, and would have covered a minimum 400' of an <b>extreme maximum</b> <b>800' total distance</b> to Brandy Green's residence from where he started running. He may have had as little as 650' total distance (long way) or 550' (short way) if he started running after he reached Zimmerman's SUV.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Because Zimmerman was obviously trying to locate Martin for the remaining 1 min 23 sec of his call to police dispatch, it would seem logical that he checked both the north-south sidewalk between the rows of townhouses, and the sidewalk about 100' east on Retreat View Circle. Obviously he never spotted Martin nor heard him talking on his phone. Remember that at 3:34 into his call he regrets giving his address because "I don't know where this kid is", leading to the inference that Zimmerman thought Martin could be hiding nearby.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">What was Martin doing in the last 1 min 23 sec of Zimmerman's call to dispatch? If he was walking home (as double hearsay from his girlfriend via lawyer Ben Crump would indicate) at a slow 3 mph, he would have covered 365', which would put him at least next door to Brandy Green's townhouse, if he took the long route via Retreat View Circle. He would be home if he went down the sidewalk between the two rows of houses.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">And what was Martin doing in the one to two minutes after Zimmerman's call to dispatch ended, and the time he met Zimmerman? Obviously he either hid somewhere in the north end of the rows of townhouses, or he wandered around that area. <b>He could not have been walking home.</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Note: I am not stating that Martin did anything wrong by stopping or loitering in the area around the tee, because he was allowed to be there. Similarly, Zimmerman was allowed to be there. While dispatch told Zimmerman "We don't need you to do that", that is not a command to stay in his vehicle. Dispatchers always advise citizens not to engage people they are reporting. Everything Zimmerman did is consistent with him following Martin to keep him in sight until police arrived. And he had a valid concealed carry permit for his handgun. And he has no criminal record as is widely and falsely reported. </b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Visitors to Florida might be surprised by how many citizens have concealed weapon permits -- <b>919,831</b> according to <a href="http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-04-08/news/fl-gun-sales-permits-20120408_1_gun-sales-gun-rights-gun-owners">this article</a>! Women often carry hanguns in quick draw sleeves of their <a href="http://www.gungear.com/ez-catalog/X300536/2">customized purses</a>. I suspect both Mickey and Minnie are packing; Orlando is a high crime rate area. It's a gun(g)-ho culture.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">To sum up this section, Martin wasn't running like a scared jack rabbit with a rabid coyote on his tail. He started running, and then for whatever reason stopped and at some point decided to engage George.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I speculate on how that engagement may have unfolded in the next post: <b>Trayvon Martin 5: My Theories on The Shooting.</b></span></span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-84719656824199824332012-04-12T12:52:00.000-06:002012-04-12T12:52:25.955-06:00Trayvon Martin 3: Spin on Trayvon<blockquote class="tr_bq"><i><span style="font-size: large;">So fine, so fine the web you spin,</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> I come too close and I'm caught again!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> In the web of wild design,</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> I do not know what fate is mine!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> All the day sit and spin,</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> Spin your web and you draw me in.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"> Spin, spin, spin, spin!</span></i></blockquote><blockquote style="margin-bottom: 0in;"> <span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: large;"> --Gordon Lightfoot, “Spin, Spin”</span></blockquote><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">My first impression of this case was that the media was trying to spin the issue as a rogue vigilante white man pursuing and gunning down an innocent little black youth who was running desperately to save his life. (Run, black Forrest, run!) Why else would they run the following photo set, images of both taken several years ago? </span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv-5onGiXLBi-8ATQmtrCjUTsHdRm3f9cLBAoy7PXbiZpxLcE_aruJvIwhIzlqNgcBu3WP5ZGaQex8PN06oZwjDDL6J7x_22QQ-_OBJ5EL5n4rfyvkA1MoNz38Otx_AxDYbXdsc6n_Gx9P/s1600/TM-GZ1.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="268" name="graphics1" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv-5onGiXLBi-8ATQmtrCjUTsHdRm3f9cLBAoy7PXbiZpxLcE_aruJvIwhIzlqNgcBu3WP5ZGaQex8PN06oZwjDDL6J7x_22QQ-_OBJ5EL5n4rfyvkA1MoNz38Otx_AxDYbXdsc6n_Gx9P/s320/TM-GZ1.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">The shooting was February 26, but major news coverage began around March 8. The family had no current images of Trayvon? What first impressions did you get when looking at this display?</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Now let's experiment by using more recent photos of the two, using an image Trayvon used on his Twitter account.</span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqP6UnjzOyDIBPiNGA1ZINIZW_cS3LXlrGwjDztfOsvDK6HFoBhQUz-jYtvDbvuLnlKnTMb_oKukO5FLZ-8AmmaXgUS-BNoreiqE8WAoqg35l62OvChQoMyzmSlW2JQQ0duvB2f7LfelfI/s1600/TM-GZ2.jpg"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="213" name="graphics2" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqP6UnjzOyDIBPiNGA1ZINIZW_cS3LXlrGwjDztfOsvDK6HFoBhQUz-jYtvDbvuLnlKnTMb_oKukO5FLZ-8AmmaXgUS-BNoreiqE8WAoqg35l62OvChQoMyzmSlW2JQQ0duvB2f7LfelfI/s320/TM-GZ2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">If that had been the first image set that you had seen, what would your first impression have been about who might be the more menacing of the two?</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Now let's look at a photo set of two people not associated with this shooting.</span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwm3liw6G6wOY0YlzZ4WYnFOz9Lsu-XUyxVxjuW8DHW188g8w5p9EfMglt8KgMQXmjg-9ypBhJbyqaZODtFnQwAW-y5cYu4jZfjEpO8FQ_eKCAODNV9hEwNE6PWCVZUUPEp3MDw4RYU3_Y/s1600/KingBundy.jpg"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="213" name="graphics3" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwm3liw6G6wOY0YlzZ4WYnFOz9Lsu-XUyxVxjuW8DHW188g8w5p9EfMglt8KgMQXmjg-9ypBhJbyqaZODtFnQwAW-y5cYu4jZfjEpO8FQ_eKCAODNV9hEwNE6PWCVZUUPEp3MDw4RYU3_Y/s320/KingBundy.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">What was your first impression? Who looks more menacing? The image on the left is Stephen King, popular writer; the image on the right is Ted Bundy, serial killer. See how this game is played? </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">In later sections I will deal with who is behind the spin, predominantly left wing media and left wing movements. In the next post I debunk the premise that Trayvon was attempting to avoid George with a detailed timeline analysis: <b>Trayvon Martin 4: Trayvon Lies in Wait</b>.</span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-9021002265032105842012-04-12T12:27:00.000-06:002012-04-12T12:27:07.013-06:00Trayvon Martin 2: Community Crime Information<span style="font-size: large;">The city of Sanford, Florida has a crime rate significantly above average for the U.S. and for Florida as shown in the image below. (<a href="http://www.movoto.com/neighborhood/fl/sanford/32771.htm%20">source</a>)</span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDGcEo3Zx3OJLAWq7AdFkHrsx-uylXZVfS68EcpWtEzROaxsGIBY0Me3wfjXfvILTRZ4PP-gcmlQpy-HLpBp6rJsQ_a4LzJSiN5L671boibQ9HueaeZ64oBXRgbeXjYQGXzvkMiwJP26sY/s1600/SanfordCrimeIndex.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="320" name="graphics1" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDGcEo3Zx3OJLAWq7AdFkHrsx-uylXZVfS68EcpWtEzROaxsGIBY0Me3wfjXfvILTRZ4PP-gcmlQpy-HLpBp6rJsQ_a4LzJSiN5L671boibQ9HueaeZ64oBXRgbeXjYQGXzvkMiwJP26sY/s320/SanfordCrimeIndex.JPG" width="307" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">Here are more images from <a href="http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Sanford-Florida.html">another source</a> on Sanford robberies and burglaries compared to U.S. averages (</span><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;">click any image in this post for sharper version</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">):</span><br />
<div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVd79p0sMKl9Dm-JpjEQIw33rRM5SAdh9Jm4joz9EAa2k3JK_cPY9kIrd8BdBMNrxRCKfBbGf_HxsTtqlBXnV5epNEyt0f2P76zoGJdQPhyphenhyphengPh4MzeFK3G-B8CXNHbi_QDZeaxUgz0Tjml/s1600/SanfordRobberies.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="187" name="graphics2" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVd79p0sMKl9Dm-JpjEQIw33rRM5SAdh9Jm4joz9EAa2k3JK_cPY9kIrd8BdBMNrxRCKfBbGf_HxsTtqlBXnV5epNEyt0f2P76zoGJdQPhyphenhyphengPh4MzeFK3G-B8CXNHbi_QDZeaxUgz0Tjml/s320/SanfordRobberies.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div align="CENTER"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJVd-W8iRLdmEkiEXPAMmvonYg0hjEZ4D2LaWRVdrBDVvc6YajVd8I2nprPa-Gwb4t5uXptCqBX3kiucfuwJbxKZnBeKoZqDUSiLoyhVXUQrDmBtM4PvdOYJ4JlpbV5s6WBm-Pim_jpNsJ/s1600/SanfordBurglaries.JPG"><img align="BOTTOM" border="0" height="185" name="graphics3" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJVd-W8iRLdmEkiEXPAMmvonYg0hjEZ4D2LaWRVdrBDVvc6YajVd8I2nprPa-Gwb4t5uXptCqBX3kiucfuwJbxKZnBeKoZqDUSiLoyhVXUQrDmBtM4PvdOYJ4JlpbV5s6WBm-Pim_jpNsJ/s320/SanfordBurglaries.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">I was unable to find source data for crimes committed within The Retreat at Twin Lakes, which is comprised of about 260 townhouses. This community was built in 2004 and current market value of the units is roughly half of initial sales price; many units are rented, including Brandy Green's and George Zimmerman's. There is high turnover and vacancy rate. Assuming 2.5 inhabitants per townhouse, that would be equivalent to a small town of about 650 people. But some of the townhouses are not occupied, so if 40 are unoccupied as one news report states, that would bring the community population down to 550.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I went to the news reports to see what they reported for previous crimes in The Retreat. I'm unsure how reporters get their "facts". I presume they interview a random stranger walking the neighbourhood. The interviewee at some point states, "Well, I don't know much about it, but my cousin's wife's hairdresser said . . ." What is said next is what I assume is reported as fact. Understandably, different hairdressers may operate from different knowledge bases, so this leads to different "facts" in news reports from different reporters. </span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">What did the reporters write? <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/28/zimmerman-s-twin-lakes-community-was-on-edge-before-trayvon-shooting.html">This account</a> appeared in the Daily Beast on March 28, and details various crimes residents had reported, including a morning burglary by two men while a woman with an infant hid in a bedroom awaiting police response. Journalist Amy Green wrote: </span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"><i>The burglary of Olivia Bertalan’s home was just one of at least eight reported over the previous 14 months—several of which, neighbors said, involved young black men.</i></span> </blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">Eight burglaries in 260 residences in 14 months in a community of about 550 seems high to me.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">On March 17, Frances Robles, writing for the normally factually challenged Miami Herald, <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/17/v-fullstory/2700249/shooter-of-trayvon-martin-a-habitual.html">stated</a>:</span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"><i>The answer may lie in police records, which show that 50 suspicious-person reports were called in to police in the past year at Twin Lakes. There were eight burglaries, nine thefts and one other shooting in the year prior to Trayvon’s death. </i></span> </blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"><i>In all, police had been called to the 260-unit complex 402 times from Jan. 1, 2011 to Feb. 26, 2012.</i></span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">A <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/humaninterest/trayvon-martins-killing-shatters-safety-within-retreat-at-twin-lakes-in/1221799">third article</a>, written by Lane DeGregory for the Tampa Bay Times on March 25 stated:</span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"><i>By the time Zimmerman shot Trayvon Martin, 40 properties inside the gate were empty and more than half of the residents were renters. </i></span></blockquote><blockquote> <span style="font-size: large;"><i>. . . </i></span> </blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"><i>For the first two months of this year, at the Retreat at Twin Lakes, the Sanford police logged 51 calls for service. Half were just people requesting information. The others included eight burglaries, two bike thefts and three simple assaults. </i></span> </blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">The last article has an <b>excellent photo</b> showing a woman standing at the north tee in the sidewalk that I reference in my time line analysis. It appears in a later post on my timeline analysis, with other images of the shooting location.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The next post will be: <b>Trayvon Martin 3: Spin on Trayvon </b></span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-86723820290980592532012-04-12T11:57:00.001-06:002012-04-13T09:22:41.971-06:00Trayvon Martin 1: Zimmerman Charged With Second Degree Murder<blockquote class="tr_bq"><i><span style="font-size: large;">The right to search for truth implies also a duty: one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.</span></i></blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-size: large;"> --Albert Einstein</span></blockquote><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Now I'm really confused. Or maybe not.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Yesterday State Prosecutor Angela Corey charged George Zimmerman with second degree murder, which is initially puzzling. What evidence could she possibly have to support that charge?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">If you've been living under a rock and aren't familiar with the Trayvon Martin shooting, scroll down for the facts and my comments in the section entitled <u><b>Introduction</b></u>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I had started writing a post on the shooting about three weeks ago, but the draft snowballed out of control, into several subsections. I will break down my analysis into several posts. <b>The most important post is my timeline analysis (to be the fourth post) which shows that Trayvon Martin must have laid in wait for George Zimmerman, leading to a physical encounter, and finally the shooting.</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Getting back to the second degree charge, it was a "WTF" moment for me. I had anticipated that political pressure would have forced State Prosecutor Corey to charge Zimmerman with manslaughter, even if conviction was unlikely. While I have not studied Florida criminal law, the requirements for conviction for murder in general require a "malice aforethought" element which must be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. Manslaughter does not require any premeditation.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">What evidence could Corey have to support a charge of second degree murder? Possibly forensic evidence like bullet trajectory and gunpowder "tattoo" (or more importantly, lack thereof) that might possibly show that the shooting was not at close range, and more like an execution. Possibly the bullet exited Trayvon's body and was recovered from the ground at the shooting scene (showing Zimmerman must have been on top during the fight). But these possibilities are pure supposition.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Without conclusive forensic evidence she must convince the jury beyond a reasonable doubt that Zimmerman exited his vehicle and followed Martin with the express purpose of doing him harm. Or that after they met up in the dark area between the townhouses Zimmerman was the aggressor in the physical encounter between the two. </span><span style="font-size: large;">Eye witness testimony is unreliable and probably is not a major part of Corey's case. </span><span style="font-size: large;">There is evidence in the public domain (<a href="http://cnninsession.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/martinpolicreport.pdf">initial partial police report</a>) that is supportive of Zimmerman's claim of self defence.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Remember that Florida has what I call a "shoot the burglar with impunity" <a href="http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0700-0799/0776/Sections/0776.013.html">law</a>, which is most often referred to as the "stand your ground" law for another provision, not dealing with burglars:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>(3) A person who is not engaged in an unlawful activity and who is attacked in any other place where he or she has a right to be has no duty to retreat and has the right to stand his or her ground and meet force with force, including deadly force if he or she reasonably believes it is necessary to do so to prevent death or great bodily harm to himself or herself or another or to prevent the commission of a forcible felony.</i></span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">I'm uncertain whether the "stand your ground" defence can be raised prior to the murder trial, forcing the prosecutor to overcome it before proceeding to trial, or whether it can be invoked only during the murder trial. Defence counsel in news reports seem to indicate the former is a possibility. Which means the second degree murder charge could get blown out of the water before trial, and Zimmerman walks.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">It is possible that Corey over-charged Zimmerman with the intent of scaring him witless, and forcing a plea bargain of a manslaughter charge. Over-charging by police and prosecutors seems to be relatively common. Considering that about 95% of criminal offences are settled through plea bargains, this allows the defence counsel to bargain down to a sentence that the prosecutor thought was appropriate for the crime. The down side to over-charging is that the accused may not negotiate and may demand either a trial or exoneration; overly greedy prosecutors can get caught with their hands in the cookie jar.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">A final consideration is that this is a presidential election year in America and Angela Corey is up for re-election. She was fired by her boss, the State Attorney, in 2006 when she announced that she would run for his job. She was elected in 2008 to that job, and did a purge of supporters of her former boss. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Corey has a reputation as a "tough on crime" prosecutor; her critics, which seem to be largely from minority races, contend she abuses the authority of her office. Currently she has a troublesome case where she "bumped up" a 12-year-old minor, Cristian Fernandez, to adult court on a first degree murder charge, but later made <a href="http://downtownjax.firstcoastnews.com/news/crime/61955-sao-cristian-fernandez-wont-stand-trial-spend-life-prison">public comments</a> that she didn't intend to try the case, but was looking for a plea deal. See my comments on over-charging and prosecutors getting caught with their hands in the cookie jar, two paragraphs above.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Everything is political in the Unforgiving States of America, including who gets the licence for the hot dog stand at small town Independence Day celebrations. By charging Zimmerman with second degree murder Corey caters to the black voters who have been whipped into a frenzy by the shooting. Most whites will still support her anyway because of her overall "tough on crime" stance.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I'm no longer puzzled. It is likely the murder trial will commence, if at all, after the elections on Nov. 6. This gives Corey time to remain "tough on crime" and make numerous public appearances before the election, and then sneak her hand out of the cookie jar after.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Isn't American "justice" fascinating? Of course this is only my opinion.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">--------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>UPDATE, April 13</b>: I posted the above material the morning of April 12 without checking to see what legal analysts had to say on the second degree murder charge. This morning I came across <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/tv/harvard-prof-alan-dershowitz-zimmerman-arrest-affidavit-irresponsible-and-unethical/">this interview</a> with Alan Dershowitz, famous defence counsel. Note the similarities between what I wrote and his comments later that day on <b>over-charging</b> and <b>politics</b>. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I would like to believe he reads my blog, but in reality those with legal training and a good analytical mind will tend to come to similar conclusions -- unless money, power, or politics intrude (and they usually do).</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The material above and below this update remain unchanged.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">------------------------------------------------ </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>Introduction </b></u> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">A fatal shooting occurred on February 26, 2012 at approximately 7:16 p.m. EDT in a gated community named The Retreat at Twin Lakes in Sanford, Florida. The deceased, Trayvon Martin (TM), was a 17-year-old black male. The shooter was a 28-year-old part Hispanic, George Zimmerman (GZ), (white father, Peruvian mother). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon had been walking in the rain, returning from a 7-Eleven (hearsay only) outside the community to his father's girlfriend's residence in the community. George Zimmerman had been driving the opposite direction, leaving the community, when he spotted Trayvon acting in a manner that George thought was suspicious.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">George was the head of the community neighborhood watch, formed in 2011 due to several break-ins in the community, and phoned the police to see if they could dispatch an officer to check out the youth. That call lasted four minutes six seconds; at two minutes seven seconds George stated "He's running", and exited his vehicle to follow Trayvon; the police dispatcher advised him "You don't need to do that."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">George followed Trayvon, sounding as if he was running for about 20-30 seconds, then talking calmly as though walking for the remainder of the call (about 1 minute 15 seconds to 1 minute 25 seconds). He apparently lost sight of Trayvon early in the pursuit. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">George and Trayvon met, probably about one minute after his call to police dispatch ended. Then there was a struggle with screaming for less than a minute, prompting several residents to call 9-11, and finally the fatal shot. Police arrived a few minutes later.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Newspaper and television coverage has been shoddy sensationalism filled with inaccuracies, so I wouldn't advise accepting anything from the media as truth. Lately some of the worst Zimmerman bashers have been backing off their aggressive, biased accounts.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">One of the best descriptions, as of today, is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Trayvon_Martin">Wikipedia entry</a>. It has links to most of the events, including calls to police, and police reports. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Below is an image of the area from the 7-Eleven (A) to Trayvon's destination (B), a distance of about 0.9 miles according to Google maps. (<span style="color: blue;">click for larger image</span>)</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQGSBGAUVgZAmwoZYBSjFJ3GPsiTj6q7ysETDSJGHcaymre9pSX2Jcx8qwE8Q038Ruaf7TLtRWhE9xEsYOP0IOqsQSOdGyj4U1_6yyoeegtNpcgZ_5YJEnfnCZtyPrvgOS9dFNBJuxzeFq/s1600/7-111TwinLakesb.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQGSBGAUVgZAmwoZYBSjFJ3GPsiTj6q7ysETDSJGHcaymre9pSX2Jcx8qwE8Q038Ruaf7TLtRWhE9xEsYOP0IOqsQSOdGyj4U1_6yyoeegtNpcgZ_5YJEnfnCZtyPrvgOS9dFNBJuxzeFq/s320/7-111TwinLakesb.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">I expect future posts to be:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 2: Community Crime Information</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 3: Spin on Trayvon</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 4: Trayvon Lies in Wait (timeline analysis)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 5: My Theory on the Shooting</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 6: Similar Mob Rule Events</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 7: Why is This Newsworthy?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 8: Politics</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Trayvon Martin 9: Conclusions </span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-2435172192627784442012-03-03T23:28:00.000-06:002012-03-03T23:28:36.733-06:00Energy Hype #1: Gasoline Price Is Too High!<span style="font-size: large;">Spring is approaching and along with it comes the inevitable outcry against gasoline prices. "It's too high!" "Big Oil is gouging us again!" "It's the Wall Street speculators!" "The Arabs have us over a barrel!" "Obama won't let us drill!"</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">This is the first post in a series where I will examine common misconceptions and misunderstandings about energy supply, consumption, and pricing. In subsequent posts I will deal with the myth of American oil independence, why shale oil like the Bakken play is over-hyped, and why natural gas shale like the Marcellus is <b>really</b> over-hyped.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">First, let's examine the concept of high price. High compared to what? I'm fond of telling people that gasoline is remarkably cheap -- one of the few bargains available to us. I remind them that I can buy a litre of gas for $1.22 Cdn (Mar. 3, 2012) which will take me at least 10 km (28.3 Imperial mpg, 23.5 U.S. mpg). If I gave them $1.22, could they find some cheaper way of getting me 10 km down the road at 100 km/hr, carrying assorted personal effects, and perhaps 3 or 4 passengers, radio playing, interior climate controlled with heat or air conditioning? No-one has been able to give me a substitute, other than buying an electric car which<b> might</b> offer a lower operating cost, although with a much higher vehicle cost.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Second, let's examine the real (inflation adjusted) price of gasoline. Data from gasbuddy.com today shows average US price for regular gas to be $3.72. The chart from inflationdata.com below shows the historical cost of US gas, priced in January, 2012 US dollars. (Click chart and any other in this blog for sharper image.)</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifi8rQbRSh_Ac3zr3cMntN9uWmkFD9gV9jOagSleuIdqZ-9qdZD1aY3_gf_F0qx314x_bopXq4Uqp6SnxxIn5q6isM0qeWNBXeOMzjcuVxocDqpzcovvWmuFXfX15BswDHyEorxPxYgEC_/s1600/GasolineReal1918-2012.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifi8rQbRSh_Ac3zr3cMntN9uWmkFD9gV9jOagSleuIdqZ-9qdZD1aY3_gf_F0qx314x_bopXq4Uqp6SnxxIn5q6isM0qeWNBXeOMzjcuVxocDqpzcovvWmuFXfX15BswDHyEorxPxYgEC_/s400/GasolineReal1918-2012.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Gasoline is now almost exactly the same price as it was in 1918, adjusted for inflation. People tend to use changes in nominal prices (the black line in the above chart), but it is the real (inflation adjusted) price that counts. Note that current prices aren't much above the 1981 average price of $3.37.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Back in the 1960s we could slide across to the American side and buy 3 US gallons of gasoline for a dollar, either paper or silver. The silver dollars contained 0.7734 ounce of silver, roughly 3/4 of an ounce. In other words, an ounce of silver in the 1960s would buy about 4 gallons of gas. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">With silver currently priced at $35/oz, those silver dollars would be worth 0.7734 x $35 = $27.07 melt value. With gasoline presently at $3.72/gal, those silver dollars should buy 7.28 gallons and an ounce of silver would buy 9.40 gal. Gas is <b>much cheaper</b> today than in the 1960s, when <b>priced in silver! </b>What has happened is that the value of the US paper dollar has been seriously depreciated, increasing the cost of things priced in US dollars.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">If a silver dollar today is worth 7.28 gallons of gasoline, then one gallon of gasoline should cost 1/7.28, or .1374 of a silver dollar (13.74 cents). That's why this guy is making big profits selling gas at 20 cents per gallon, priced in silver coins!</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLq3rWFL-tgyqjJnSryapTk0RDbCmaP8S-tbizGAU7Sk-AEB5ZzROnJoRBBwVvxZ3PaEomDtTjBUG1dWUeti-SdwTPvuyMVFbV4nnLixcQZ5T4xpRCuYu_UkjHHa3GbrIFfDWoTpvD75Mg/s1600/Gasoline20cents.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLq3rWFL-tgyqjJnSryapTk0RDbCmaP8S-tbizGAU7Sk-AEB5ZzROnJoRBBwVvxZ3PaEomDtTjBUG1dWUeti-SdwTPvuyMVFbV4nnLixcQZ5T4xpRCuYu_UkjHHa3GbrIFfDWoTpvD75Mg/s400/Gasoline20cents.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">As a third consideration, let's examine what components contribute to the price of gasoline at the pump. There are several good images in this linked <a href="http://www.cppi.ca/index_e.php?p=57">short article</a>, including the one below comparing Canadian and US prices. Obviously tax is the biggest component contributing to price differences. The chart in the article showing prices around the world is useful to show how low Canadian and US prices are relative to other countries.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwa4RFzu2GtFL8KWf3rQkw1J6gAb3HJZA2ax1xJZInHpUd-i5owgCuNe37SvPKpc6dDkXiVCpnQeA36jkWib5yn2xKwiU9RYZvbp7f1Rq0G_MG3SrD5DBjFUZsd29KNFiPWqXIa5ytcg9E/s1600/GasolinePriceComponentsCDAUSA2009.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwa4RFzu2GtFL8KWf3rQkw1J6gAb3HJZA2ax1xJZInHpUd-i5owgCuNe37SvPKpc6dDkXiVCpnQeA36jkWib5yn2xKwiU9RYZvbp7f1Rq0G_MG3SrD5DBjFUZsd29KNFiPWqXIa5ytcg9E/s400/GasolinePriceComponentsCDAUSA2009.JPG" width="400" /></a></div> <br />
<span style="font-size: large;">In the US the federal government levies a gasoline tax of 18.4 cents per gallon (4.9 cents/litre), which has been unchanged since 1993. That tax would have to be raised to 28.9 cents/gal today to provide the same inflation adjusted revenue that it raised in 1993. But such an increase is impossible in a nation where the citizenry suffer from a mass delusion of over-taxation. </span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Most people are aware that gasoline prices tend to rise in the spring, stay high over summer, and then decline until the next spring, as shown in <a href="http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/Seasonal/SeasonalRB.php">various seasonal price charts</a>. Many people think it's a plot to deprive them of their money during the time they tend to drive most (May long weekend through Labour Day). However part of the price increase should be apparent. If they are driving more, so is everyone else; increased demand for any commodity normally results in increased cost. The chart below shows how gasoline demand varies through the year.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP4Rus4Y3kCR6TvBM7olpA-RAKeeNY53iInH9poFHcAn-VuWlyGSm-p9LIjYmcgqrmKmGceTdXjTJdmwH07Ll5LVkL7Dc2bovgqn7mq4mEM9P8JwB60YGV9ZtfQT2kB_PrpWZT06VqLT3r/s1600/GasolineSales1995-2011.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP4Rus4Y3kCR6TvBM7olpA-RAKeeNY53iInH9poFHcAn-VuWlyGSm-p9LIjYmcgqrmKmGceTdXjTJdmwH07Ll5LVkL7Dc2bovgqn7mq4mEM9P8JwB60YGV9ZtfQT2kB_PrpWZT06VqLT3r/s400/GasolineSales1995-2011.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Note how gasoline consumption has declined since 2006-2007. Starting in 2007, as Wall Street firms began imploding, I received stupified looks from people when I told them that Americans would never again burn as much gasoline as they did at the height of the housing bubble. A credit collapse is long lasting, and Americans (as well as members of all OECD nations including Canada) will use less gasoline as their economic condition deteriorates. As the earning capacity of developing nations grow, they will consume more and we will consume less of a resource that probably is at or near peak production. I will deal with the concept of peak oil in a subsequent blog.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">It should be noted that gasoline <b>consumption per capita</b> in the US peaked around 2000, and has dropped significantly since. The below chart from Doug Short of dshort.com illustrates the trend.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbnvBsTLy3W9k7-zR6clLRLiMtJlpnA7Re5b-76mI92AjBb2KMhicx__RGIPICR_48WnDoy2tit0o-yzE_K3srnvWSEIoxVN0a-D62Q_aw_dgs60omKvCwUA3orEYDoWJfiPUG5LthldtT/s1600/GasolineSalesPerCapita1995-2011.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbnvBsTLy3W9k7-zR6clLRLiMtJlpnA7Re5b-76mI92AjBb2KMhicx__RGIPICR_48WnDoy2tit0o-yzE_K3srnvWSEIoxVN0a-D62Q_aw_dgs60omKvCwUA3orEYDoWJfiPUG5LthldtT/s400/GasolineSalesPerCapita1995-2011.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Recent data shows gasoline sales dropping off fast, so when Mr. Short updates this chart the per capita consumption should continue down at an increased rate. It remains to be seen what happens in the future, but I maintain US gasoline consumption is unlikely to ever again reach the levels of 2006-2007. You can't buy what you can't afford unless someone extends credit, and Americans used up their credit during the housing bubble, as did people in most other developed nations.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">One consequence of decreasing gasoline consumption in developed nations is pressure on refinery profit margins. As a result some refineries are closing, such as <a href="http://www.gtforum.com/gtf/news/2136817/petroplus-shutdowns-global-capacity-closures-2012-sizeable-12mbpd">Petroplus</a> in Europe and some refineries <a href="http://www.icis.com/Articles/2012/02/28/9536689/report-says-refinery-closures-may-drive-up-us-gasoline-prices.html">supplying the US New England states</a>. There are also complications getting the right amount of the right kind of crude to the right refineries. Each refinery is designed to handle a specific oil blend; one designed for light sweet crude cannot process heavy sour crude, for instance. At the same time as New England refineries close, the mid-west refineries in the US are making out like bandits as they process a surplus of cheaper land-locked Bakken shale oil and Alberta diluted bitumen.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Of course the developing nations are increasing the number of refineries as their citizens and industries start ramping up fuel consmption. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Getting back to the causes for the rise in gasoline prices in the spring, in addition to increased demand, there is also the seasonal change in blend. In the winter the gasoline blends allow for a higher <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_Vapor_Pressure">Reid vapor pressure</a>. This allows the blend to hold more of the less expensive ingredients such as butane. In the summer the fuel has less butane, so more of the higher <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alkane">alkanes</a> are used at higher cost of production.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">So, you being a rather astute person who is observant of details (if not you wouldn't have read this far), point out that the gas price has gone up early this year, before spring. What gives? Surely that proves oil company price fixing or Wall Street speculation or Obama not allowing drilling, or some combination, right? </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Wrong! One factor which many people have trouble accepting is that world crude oil production may have peaked and may be incapable of future increases except on a very short term basis. This is a very controversial issue (peak oil) which I will deal with in a subsequent post. It is clear that most countries are producing at or near maximum capacity, and any disruption (or potential disruption) of supply causes prices to rise.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Which brings me to the second factor. As long as the US military and its puppet tag-alongs in NATO (including Canada) continue to lurch around the world like Cujo, the rabid dog in one of Stephen King's novels, you can expect oil prices to be higher than they would be under calmer circumstances. Probably $10-$20 higher (my guess), and possibly much higher than that if Iran is next after Syria after Libya on the hit list.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">A third factor are the central bankers of the world, primarily American and European. As they continue a policy of virtually non-existant interest rates and repetitive emergency bailouts of the banks under their care, they push cash into risk assets and away from savings. Some of that cash moves into commodities of all types, including oil. This is what the average person thinks of as speculation. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">In the investment sector there is a long standing fear of the "bond vigilantes". If a nation abuses its credit, then investors will decline to purchase its bonds. Ask Greece. But I have a theory that the commodity vigilantes are more important. As a nation abuses its credit, usually accompanied by devaluation of its currency, the prices of commodities in that currency rise, slowing or reversing the artificial economic growth the central bank and government are trying to achieve. The commodity vigilantes would be more than happy to invest in commodities rather than bonds in that environment and still profit as the general economy stagnates.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">If anyone thinks gasoline prices do not follow crude oil prices, they should check out the chart below. Brent crude is used because it is a better reflection of world oil price than the American West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) traded on the NYMEX. It is just another example where American influence is waning.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZw9P_l4XC0c2pzQRbYTMwyWWJdtkRwv4TDE74kFGM-zORFEvbu9ha9-1ZhqG2O-wc3M2UhwsgYPwDuShMZ19OUjbLoq7cUy-UmIXEw6wCkt9qcMN6tCAmmDn6BhFbMB5mYzD63DvkIGMH/s1600/GasolineBrentCrude2005-2012.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZw9P_l4XC0c2pzQRbYTMwyWWJdtkRwv4TDE74kFGM-zORFEvbu9ha9-1ZhqG2O-wc3M2UhwsgYPwDuShMZ19OUjbLoq7cUy-UmIXEw6wCkt9qcMN6tCAmmDn6BhFbMB5mYzD63DvkIGMH/s400/GasolineBrentCrude2005-2012.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">There is a fourth factor influencing oil prices, and thereby gasoline prices. That is political uncertainty. No-one knows what the <b>dysfunctional American government</b> will do about anything, including the energy sector. So short term planning in the energy sector is difficult and long term planning is next to impossible. Look at the political gyrations surrounding the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline">Keystone XL pipeline</a>. All the delays and uncertainties around energy policy results in increased costs to the consumer. Of course the politicians creating the most disruption like to blame "speculators" or "oil producing countries who don't like us very much" or each other based on party lines.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Now let's look at one factor that is not causing a rise in North American gas prices, a failure to drill. Sarah Palin was credited with the "Drill, baby, drill!" mantra when she joined John McCain as the Republican ticket for the Whitehouse in 2008. Of course Obama took over on January 20, 2009. So then the chant turned to "Obama won't let us drill!" </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Well, of course. That has to be the answer. I hear it on American right wing media every day. Obama won't let anyone drill; it's a dirty Kenyan communist plot. If only there was some way to check out the numbers of drill rigs over time to confirm the death of drilling. Oh, wait, here's a chart that does that (green additions on the chart are mine).</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmSjIIYH4UP-DmIf1_3QtZtPcUx8Rm3wRMzmLyla2Yi5UAUs4TpBWQXGqaS2eL8cSgzh2_HziJeEEFyES95K8-uWh_h4_vxtM7ily7cWnWXOyhcfBaezO58p93uCR_YYpeTWQrFm4OSisQ/s1600/GasolinePrice&OilRigCount2007-2012-1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="387" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmSjIIYH4UP-DmIf1_3QtZtPcUx8Rm3wRMzmLyla2Yi5UAUs4TpBWQXGqaS2eL8cSgzh2_HziJeEEFyES95K8-uWh_h4_vxtM7ily7cWnWXOyhcfBaezO58p93uCR_YYpeTWQrFm4OSisQ/s400/GasolinePrice&OilRigCount2007-2012-1.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">From the above chart you can see a rise in gasoline prices to an all time high, derived from a similar rise in oil price from 2007 into mid-2008. (I presume it was caused by Bush 43 disallowing drilling.) The number of oil rigs ramped up from the 300 range to about 400. Then gasoline prices crashed as the recession hit, and after a few months lag the oil rig count dropped to less than 300. Near the end of 2008 gasoline prices started back up but rigs continued down into spring of 2009, bottoming under 200. Then they turned and followed oil and gasoline prices back up to the present, where they are still climbing. The latest US oil rig count from Baker Hughes, released yesterday, was 1293, up 28 from the previous week and up well over 1,000 from the end of Bush's term. Obama seems rather poor at suppressing drilling activity, contrary to utterances from the right wing bloviators.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Now let's look at a bigger picture for drilling rigs. Yesterday (March 2, 2012) Baker Hughes showed the following in its weekly release. Rigs are the total of active oil and gas rotary rigs.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">U.S. had 1989 rigs, up 282 (16.5%) from last year.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Canada had 681, up 56 (9.0%) from last year.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">International had 1171, up 10 (0.9%) from last year.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">So let's put this into perspective. The U.S. had a 16.5% increase in active rigs last year, despite Obama supposedly suppressing drilling. Canada had only a 9% increase, probably due to Prime Minister Harper being more effective in suppressing drilling; wait -- isn't Harper a big advocate of drilling? I'm so confused. And the international rig count (everything outside North America except Russia and mainland China) increased less than 1%. Why? Well, the rest of the world must be waiting to get their oil from the U.S. because the Republicans promise they will take over the Whitehouse, and America will once again be an oil exporter, and gasoline prices will return to $2. And yes, I'm being sarcastic.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">So, what should consumers to do about rising gasoline prices? My suggestion is to drive less and walk or bicycle more.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">But that won't be enough for some people. They will want to take action against the "price gougers". Very soon we should all get the "gas out" chain e-mail messages exhorting us to boycott some brand of gas station or another for one day with the goal of driving down prices. It is sad that so many people have so little knowledge of gasoline refining and distribution networks that they think this could work, but such is the case. But I'll let Snopes <a href="http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/gasout.asp">explain this foolishness</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">What else can you do? Well, some people of faith believe that they can "pray away the gay". So it should not come as a surprise when that subsect of society attempts to<a href="http://www.theprovince.com/news/prices+soar+some+pray+help/6203941/story.html"> pray away</a> gasoline prices. For video <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SxB1aMf_vA">see here</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">And for a society that is accused of worshiping the automobile, it should surprise no-one that SUVs are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/us/08pray.html">put on a church altar</a> and prayed over. For video <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FAYuOOsgNw">see here</a>. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Now an hour in prayer is not likely to hurt anyone, even if it is about something like gasoline prices. But an hour in prayer combined with an hour learning about energy supply issues will bring a person at least an hour closer to understanding why gasoline prices are rising. And no prayer with two hours studying energy supply issues will bring a person two hours closer to that understanding.</span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-57364810037693133942011-10-10T11:48:00.002-06:002011-11-06T19:03:20.984-06:00Eeyore Goes to Washington<span style="font-size: large;">I've been following the motley crew of misfits vying for the Republican leadership. While almost all of them have significant achievements in their lives, I can't believe this is the best America has to offer for leadership of the right wing party. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The followers of the Teapublithugs (as I refer to them) change their preferences for leadership more often than I change my underwear. If you missed the news for two days you probably missed the rise and fall of another contender.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">It is entertaining, but extremely unhelpful to Americans and the rest of the world, to see the American public splinter into various segments and castigate each other over differences that have no significance in the real world. The animosity peaks during election campaigns which is . . . <b>always</b>. America's problems are so numerous and complex that no political party or leader can have any significant effect on them.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">If Shakespeare were a political commentator I think he would have reserved his following quote for American politican posturing (by either party):</span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-size: small;">It is a tale told by an idiot,</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">full of sound and fury,</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">signifying nothing.</span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">I understand the symbol of the Teapublithugs is the elephant, and that of the Dummycrats is the donkey, but perhaps the symbols were chosen incorrectly. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Watch the video below and see if you can detect a significant difference in content between the last 10 seconds, and that which precedes.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dzGlZXi706TDKcV1O5j8n4QphpG4ag6fZ__fj1BMoBtCNJyHO4prdoJNYpglXpxHKqXeTY2Q5YJjqfr7TnF4w' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I don't hear it either. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">"Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"</span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-89200984098079381032011-08-08T21:15:00.001-06:002011-08-08T21:55:34.972-06:00S&P Justified in Downgrading US DebtThis is the third day since Standard & Poors Ratings Services downgraded US Federal Government debt, following stock market close on Friday, August 5, 2011. Since then there has been a cacophony of screams of anguish and vilification of S & P, mostly unjustified.<br />
I have no particular fondness for the S & P Ratings Services. I think this organization should have been closed down due to their fraud (in my view) in rating mortgage backed securities during the housing bubble. I also think executive officers should have been put on trial for fraud. The same goes for the ratings agencies of Moody's and Fitch. These three form a legal cartel of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating_agency">Credit Ratings Agencies</a> (CRAs), sanctioned by Wall Street and Congress.<br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>But they were not punished for their deception during the housing bubble, so that is irrelevent to the current debt downgrade issue.</b><br />
<br />
The current Whitehouse administration and their various minions, hirelings and town criers were particularly vocal today. Lawrence O'Donnell (MSNBC) is airing a highly inaccurate and deceptive segment on the debt downgrade as I type.<br />
<br />
The Chinese rating agency <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-08/03/content_13038588.htm">Dagong had downgraded</a> US debt in November, 2010, and again last Wednesday, two days before the S & P downgrade. The first downgrade was due to their view that US Federal Government debt was spiralling out of control. The second downgrade was due to their view that the recent agreement on debt control was inadequate, and debt would not be contained. Dagong's actions are widely viewed as politically motivated, but that doesn't mean their downgrades are totally unjustified.<br />
<br />
More importantly, on July 18 the independent US rating agency <a href="http://bankloansandrates.com/2011/07/19/egan-jones-downgrades-u-s-debt-rating-from-aaa-to-aa/">Egan-Jones downgraded</a> US debt. This is important because Egan-Jones provides ratings information for investors who pay for this service; there is an incentive to provide realistic analyses. Egan-Jones are considered unbiased, because their revenue source is their investor clients who want accurate and timely information. The big three CRA cartel mentioned above are widely considered to be lackeys of Wall Street banks. <br />
<br />
So now everyone is bashing S & P because the stock market is crashing. Talk about shooting the messenger. The interesting fact is that US debt is in wide demand today, despite the minor downgrade, as people rush out of stocks and into bonds. Stocks are crashing worldwide as the credit bubble attempts to contract, while central banks pump in more money to prevent that event (possible deflationary collapse, aka "The Greater Depression"). The stock crash has very little to do with the S & P debt rating; stocks were headed down two weeks ago as Congress and the Whitehouse neared the end of their fake solution to the debt issue (see chart immediately below, click image for larger view). Way more money has been lent out than will ever be repaid, and banks and governments worldwide are playing musical chairs trying to shift the bad debt to someone else. Check your pension fund; that's where it's headed.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdtGAqXiXWetpqpja2vue4poMTDFwXkLGyKWSegXdFWMb_CNu35hm0SPGBXHiMUlxcNQPhXd3zlnV8V6uX9YoxLEXC7a_OMcPISkhx_gIdrGy7rO1g5cuJ4OTQuVKkNJ7r2snituHes8F7/s1600/110808S%2526P.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdtGAqXiXWetpqpja2vue4poMTDFwXkLGyKWSegXdFWMb_CNu35hm0SPGBXHiMUlxcNQPhXd3zlnV8V6uX9YoxLEXC7a_OMcPISkhx_gIdrGy7rO1g5cuJ4OTQuVKkNJ7r2snituHes8F7/s320/110808S%2526P.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br />
Also not mentioned in most media reports are the numerous previous warnings S & P had issued. They have had US debt on <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-watch.asp">negative watch</a> for some time. During the lengthy negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling S & P made it clear that there would have to be a credible plan to cut least 4 trillion dollars over the next ten years to avoid a debt downgrade. The deal passed by Congress and accepted by President O'Bomber appears to me to be all smoke and mirrors, and putting decisions off into the future. It comes nowhere close to a 4 trillion dollar cut, and promises of future cuts probably wouldn't be honoured anyway.<br />
<br />
S & P sees it the same way. US debt is spiralling out of control <b>compared to other AAA rated countries</b>, and there is no indication this trend will not continue. (France's debt should also be downgraded soon according to my readings.) Therefore the downgrade is justified. I would expect another downgrade around the second quarter of 2012 because there is a low probability of a dysfunctional Congress doing anything responsible between now and the 2012 election.<br />
<br />
To put this into Tea Party vocabulary, think of it this way. Suppose you're at the local sports bar with some buds sucking back on some Buds and watching Monday Night Football. There's this annoying clown at the next table wearing an USA tee shirt and loudly whistling a Barry Manilow tune. You (wearing your S & P ball cap) lean over and mention politely that that kind of behaviour is not appreciated.<br />
<br />
But the whistling continues. So you lean over to whistler guy and tell him if he doesn't stop the runaway non-sanctioned whistling you will have to do something.<br />
<br />
But whistler guy continues on, oblivious to the type of bar, the game and the fair warnings. So you get more explicit, and issue a threat of physical violence if the whistling doesn't stop within the next minute.<br />
<br />
Manilow guy continues so you get up and clock him. Not a big hit, just a little open-hand slap upside the ear, just to show that you're serious. And you stand with clenched fist letting him know what's next if he doesn't remedy his ways. Next thing you know USA-tee-Manilow-whistler guy is running all around the bar claiming horrendous unjustified assault. And all his sissy friends start blaming you, and want you thrown in jail. Go figure. After all the warnings he thinks the little slap was unjustified.<br />
<br />
Wow! The sell-off continues in the Asian markets. S & P 500 futures down about 30 points after hours to 1180; gold up to $1760. Bernanke and the FOMC ("Bennie and the InkJets") have a regular statement tomorrow; should be interesting.<br />
<br />
In conclusion, the point of this post is that it is unfair to vilify the S & P for past indiscretions, <b>when no-one attempted to punish them in the past. </b>Read <a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3DUS_Downgraded_AA%2B.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243942957443&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8">the debt downgrade report</a> S & P issued, and <b>form your own conclusions</b> as to whether the downgrade is justified. I think it is. <b>And please, please do not form your conclusions based solely on media reports, almost all of which tend to be incomplete and biased.</b> I find it best to read the source information rather than rely on media spin.<br />
<br />
And for those numerous S & P bashing hypocrites in the media today (including Prez O'Bomber), who did nothing about S & P before, during, and after the housing crash, I have a suggestion for an evening beverage:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvoswCzBnQk7oiXmkXDofa6One8in2gKvbIcgLEj-mzCF2jQgteUwmMzy3s8bf98lpO8bQHI9b9EWYPwxwsqmmZ9tfuLHE9BsAzXkDxgOYslux4qcRdf7aYpvvmlk6h9X0ikD-Db3qHQ59/s1600/stfu-military.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvoswCzBnQk7oiXmkXDofa6One8in2gKvbIcgLEj-mzCF2jQgteUwmMzy3s8bf98lpO8bQHI9b9EWYPwxwsqmmZ9tfuLHE9BsAzXkDxgOYslux4qcRdf7aYpvvmlk6h9X0ikD-Db3qHQ59/s400/stfu-military.jpg" width="285" /></a></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-29373558607302321202011-04-27T00:47:00.000-06:002011-04-27T00:47:37.208-06:00"She's Come Undun"<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Shakespeare had one of his characters in a play utter the phrase, "Past is prologue." As I understand it, he meant that what happened in the past sets the stage for current events. And of course current events set the stage for the future.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">We humans tend to learn little from others' experiences, even if the events occurred in our lifetimes. Sometimes we don't even learn from our own experiences. This failing allows historical themes to play out in a similar fashion over and over again, with each new generation thinking the previous has made a mess of things, and only the clear thinking and discipline of the new generation can make things better.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The last few days I have been thinking of the comedic displays that pass for politics, news, and current events in the United Suckers of America. At the same time I have been reflecting on various recurring themes and how they have been dealt with in popular music in the past.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In this post I will connect some music primarily from the 1960s and early 1970s with current situations. There is a saying that if you remember the 60s, you weren't there. I was there and like to think I remember lots -- and my thinking of those events now is often quite different from my thinking as the events transpired.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">This post will contain links to various videos. Here's one that gives a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vka4TOJtLk">refresher of some events</a> during the 1960s.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Many artists in the 1960s incorporated the themes of cycles or circles into their music. The band Blood, Sweat, and Tears had such a reference in their song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLsY_4KhWoU"><i>Spinning Wheel</i></a>": </span></div><blockquote><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">What goes up must come down<br />
spinning wheel got to go round<br />
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin<br />
Ride a painted pony<br />
Let the spinning wheel spin<br />
<br />
You got no money, and you, you got no home<br />
Spinning wheel all alone<br />
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn<br />
Ride a painted pony<br />
let the spinning wheel turn<span style="font-size: large;"></span></div></blockquote><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">"What goes up must come down." Think of the NASDAQ bubble which collapsed in 2000. "You got no money, and you, you got no home." Think about the housing bubble that peaked in 2005-2007. "Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn." I see considerable whining from all quarters, accompanied with virorous finger pointing, but little understanding of, or even recognition of the underlying factors causing the pain. "Let the spinning wheel turn." Donald Trump, anyone?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Joni Mitchell hit the cycles theme in her song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2vGJSX0xo"><i>The Circle Game</i></a>":</span></div><blockquote><span style="font-size: small;">And the seasons they go round and round<br />
And the painted ponies go up and down<br />
We're captive on the carousel of time<br />
We can't return we can only look behind<br />
From where we came<br />
And go round and round and round<br />
In the circle game</span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">"We can't return we can only look behind, from where we came." Nothing encapsulates our current society better. Many people believe they can just go back to a simpler lifestyle, with their little patch of land, little garden, little windmill, little solar cell array, little arsenal, and 10,000 rounds of ammo. Only a very small percentage can do that. The vast majority are tied to an energy-consumptive lifestyle that is about to get very interesting as low-priced energy disappears.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When Americans eventually find out they are never returning to business as usual, and every generation will have a lifestyle reduced from that of their parents, it is possible that violent protests and riots will again appear as they did in the 1960s. Gordon Lightfoot used the <a href="http://www.walkervilletimes.com/26/black-day-july.html">Detroit Riot of 1967</a> as the theme for his song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPXL3iEVnCM"><i>Black Day in July</i></a>". The song was banned in 30 states.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In 2003, and again in 2006, The Dixie Chicks had their music <a href="http://www.freemuse.org/sw14092.asp">banned on some venues</a> as the American right wingnuts went beserk over the Chicks' comments opposing the war in Iraq. If you missed it, think of a National Geographic special where chimps in the trees spot a leopard. Try not to envisage the flinging of feces. The ultra-conservative crowd prefer jingoistic nationalism as portrayed by people like <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruNrdmjcNTc">Toby Keith</a>: </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<blockquote>You’ll be sorry that you messed with<br />
The U.S. of A.<br />
'Cause we'll put a BOOT in your ass<br />
It's the American way<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></blockquote></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">People like Toby Keith demonstrate why the expression "<a href="http://batr.org/wrack/040404.html">The Ugly American</a>" will never go out of style. His song lyrics include the combination of arrogance, ignorance, and aggression that people around the world associate with Americans. Donald Trump has been demonstrating those three characteristics amply in the past few weeks in his fake run for the Presidency.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Way back in the Viet Nam era there was a song by Country Joe and the Fish that captured the anti-war mood of much of the American population (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBdeCxJmcAo">Woodstock live</a> version, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Soy3PHV3RiM">image slide show</a> version). This is truly a timeless piece. Substitute a few words here and there and it fits any of the current wars America is in. I particularly like these lines:</span><br />
<blockquote>Come on Wall Street, don't be slow,<br />
Why man, this is war au-go-go<br />
There's plenty good money to be made<br />
By supplying the Army with the tools of its trade,<span style="font-size: large;"></span></blockquote><i><span style="font-size: large;">Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.</span></i><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Student protests against expansion of the War in Viet Nam to Cambodia resulted in the shooting incident at Kent State, as expressed by Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young in "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI7-m919ynU"><i>Four Dead in Ohio</i></a>". </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Today there is much more complacency among young people than in the 1960s. Perhaps part of the reason is a sense of futility in attempting to challenge a strong corporatist state where the large corporations and governments are closely aligned, and powerful people move from one to the other on a regular basis.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I know younger people use technology devices regularly, but my observation is that the technology is employed more for recreation and diversion than as an educational tool. The Guess Who in their song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOpiwsi5RKE"><i>Share the Land</i></a>" asked the following questions:</span><br />
<blockquote>Did you pay your dues?<br />
Did you read the news<br />
This morning when the paper landed in your yard?<br />
Do you know their names?<br />
Can you play their games<br />
Without losin' track, and comin' down a bit too, hard?</blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">My impression is that people of all ages aren't "paying their dues" by spending time researching the important themes playing out in our society. Most people just accept at face value the misleading trivia the mainstream media publish.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Leonard Cohen showed insight into the American system with his 1988 song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h27HRNm_r4U"><i>Everybody Knows</i></a>":</span><br />
<blockquote>Everybody knows that the dice are loaded<br />
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed<br />
Everybody knows that the war is over<br />
Everybody knows the good guys lost<br />
Everybody knows the fight was fixed<br />
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich<br />
That's how it goes<br />
Everybody knows<br />
<br />
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking<br />
Everybody knows that the captain lied<br />
Everybody got this broken feeling<br />
Like their father or their dog just died<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">Yes, the American boat is leaking and Captain Obama is lying, as did his predecessors. So are all his officers. Lying is necessary, because the citizens can't handle the truth. Or perhaps they still have access to tar, feathers, rails, and pitchforks.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">In my opinion we are still in the early stages of what could be a two decade deleveraging process. Almost everyone is in denial, thinking we will go back to business as usual. We won't. Much of our growth over the last 20-30 years was due to easy credit, which pulled forward demand for all things. Now it's time to "pay the piper". Substitute "credit" for "needle" in Neil Young's song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0t0EW6z8a0"><i>Needle and the Damage Done</i></a>":</span><br />
<blockquote>I caught you knockin' at my cellar door <br />
I love you, baby, can I have some more <br />
Ooh, ooh, the damage done. <br />
<br />
I hit the city and I lost my band <br />
I watched the needle take another man <br />
Gone, gone, the damage done. <br />
<br />
I sing the song because I love the man <br />
I know that some of you don't understand <br />
Milk-blood to keep from running out. <br />
<br />
I've seen the needle and the damage done <br />
A little part of it in everyone <br />
But every junkie's like a settin' sun.<span style="font-size: large;"></span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">Everyone wants the other guy to be forced to be clean and sober (pay his debts). In the meanwhile, it might be appropriate to allow me to have just one more little fix (credit expansion). Every credit junkie's like a settin' sun.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">In the meanwhile President O'bomber has proved to be a huge disappointment to many. He is captured by the corporatists and his policies tend to be to the benefit of the corporations and wealthy individuals, and to the detriment of the citizens. He is clueless on economics and energy issues, and as such is a collosal waste of skin in his present position. Look at who he takes his counsel from -- some of the biggest plunderers of the American system. It's hard not to notice that he has escalated war efforts and military spending beyond Bush's efforts. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The sense of disappointment many have with O'Bomber might be reflected in some of the lines from the Guess Who song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT4Qp0tYfBg"><i>These Eyes</i></a>":</span><br />
<blockquote>These eyes watched you bring my world to an end.<br />
This heart could not accept and pretend.<br />
The hurtin’s on me yeah,<br />
But I will never be free no no no.<br />
You took the vow with me yeah.<br />
You spoke it, you spoke it, babe.</blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">The fact is that credit deleveraging coupled with increasing demand worldwide for dwindling resources is a force that no administration can overcome. Influence, yes. Overcome, no. Poor O'Bomber will leave office as President "No Hope and Change for the Worse".</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Yes, America is coming undone, or "<i><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLMF5GM0Kt8">Undun</a></i>" as the Guess Who spell it. There is an idiom that "every dog has his day", which is similar to the saying about everyone getting his "15 minutes of fame". But for nations the time period is longer. Some historians have noted that the average lifespan of a democracy is about 200 years, after which it is replaced with some form of autocracy. American Independence was in 1776; add 200 years (doing the Jethro Bodin carrying of the naughts in my head) and . . . jeez, what's that awful stench -- something is past its "best before" date. Or, from "<i>Undun</i>":</span><br />
<blockquote>It's too late<br />
She's gone too far<br />
She's lost the sun<br />
<br />
She's come undun<br />
She wanted truth but all she got was lies<br />
Came the time to realize<br />
And it was too late<span style="font-size: large;"></span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">I find it both humorous and perplexing that American Democrats and Conservatives are having a major problem coming up with anything near a one percent cut in their deficit spending. They can't cut because that will result in a slowdown in government spending which translates into a drop in GDP. But they can't continue increasing debt indefinitely because they system will collapse suddenly if they don't contain spending. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Americans think they have a <b>problem</b>. They don't. They have a <b>dilemma</b>. Problems have solutions; dilemmas have only a choice of bad options. In most dilemmas, the options become more painful as time goes on, and that is the case in America. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Infrastructure is aging and maintenance has been neglected. Every year the civil engineers give a lower grade to the state of repair of bridges, roads and dams. Expect increased failures of all in the future. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Americans and Canadians have a transportation system that is heavily dependent on automobiles rather than public transportation systems that most of the rest of the world have invested in. As energy costs rise cars become a very expensive transportation medium relative to public systems so this is a competitive disadvantage.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Everyone who has studied ecology understands that any given parcel of land and/or water has a carrying capacity of a certain variety and number of plants and animals. Animal numbers grow from low numbers where they have more than enough food, to high numbers where there is insufficient food (overshoot). Then the population crashes back to low numbers again due to starvation, competition, or disease. Humans are subject to the same rules. The lack of any national energy policy in America or Canada means that we are in for some big negative outcomes, as cheap and plentiful energy supplies give way to more expensive and less plentiful sources. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Competition for resources has been a feature in North America for decades, but it has been masked somewhat by access to cheap credit. Over the last 3-4 decades the already wealthy have been able to collect proportionally more of the wealth than the lower classes. The middle class grew for about two decades following WWII, then began its slow decline, accelerating downward in the last decade. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Against this backdrop there has been a constant propaganda barrage about the advantages of democracy and free market economics. In reality the powerful elite have ensured there is only the semblance of democracy. And there is no free market (and never has been); the powerful use governments to slant laws to their benefit while challenging the lower classes to adapt to austerity measures.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Leonard Cohen had a catchy song "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS1vgdYsQgI"><i>Democracy</i></a>" (link is slow loading, high resolution video of recent Wisconsin demonstrations -- <b>worth the wait while loading</b>). The democracy theme is topical due to the unrest in the mid-East. I wonder how many of the citizens fighting for regime change understand that they aren't going to improve their lot in any significant way just because they get to vote for their government officials. And do they understand that in most cases America would prefer dealing with their current dictator than an elected government? Wealth will always be concentrated at the top, regardless of the form of government.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">I would like to believe that in our problematic near future we will work towards a system where logical decisions are made to mitigate the deterioration of our society. As Cohen put it in his rhymes:</span><br />
<blockquote>I'm sentimental, if you know what I mean<br />
I love the country but I can't stand the scene.<br />
And I'm neither left or right<br />
I'm just staying home tonight,<br />
getting lost in that hopeless little screen.<br />
But I'm stubborn as those garbage bags<br />
that Time cannot decay,<br />
I'm junk but I'm still holding up this little wild bouquet:<br />
Democracy is coming to the U.S.A.<span style="font-size: large;"></span></blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">However, my background is such that I tend to look at the probabilities logically, disregarding personal preferences. As I mentioned above, the average democracy lasts about 200 years and American empire is clearly in decline, just as the British empire declined previously. And numerous powerful emprires rose and fell prior to the British.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">At present the citizens of America are at each others throats like the Cripps and Bloods. The power elite have been effective with divide and conquer propaganda, so that the populace believe they are in a political ideology struggle. They aren't -- they are in a class struggle, and as Warren Buffet states, his class is winning. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">America is experiencing the classic <a href="http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/the-book">shock doctrine</a> as espoused in Naomi Klein's book of that name. The power elite are forcing reductions in education and social programmes, while looting everything not nailed to the ground, accompanied by transfer of debt from private hands to the public. If Stephen Harper were to get a majority government in Canada next week, we would see an acceleration of the shock doctrine here; to this point he has been able to only make moderate changes, but remarkable ones considering he has never had a majority government.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Regardless of which party is in power, I apply the Guess Who lyrics to our economic situation -- "<b>She's come undun</b>".</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-47169469864408000402010-12-30T23:41:00.001-06:002011-02-25T17:24:34.718-06:002010 Energy Update<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is an update to my post in June of this year, entitled "<a href="http://gullibilityplanet.blogspot.com/2010/06/its-all-about-energy-this-post-is.html">It's all about Energy</a>".</span><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In that post I outlined my reasons for believing that an average price of oil of $85 per barrel over a 10 week period (50 trading days) would be enough to send the American economy into recession. Well, we're there, boys and girls. In the chart from stockcharts.com below you will see the 50 day moving average (blue line) closed at $86.06 today. Click on graphic for sharper image.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipHtZnG48yNNcnUKcFFZof9Q2OAhl1mogqCVcS0Pl8RioSlzeS5XfLTe0f_B2smAcVE7GLW4DojQ-ISpVo17ROM9W3QMB2sRqXj3h4xnpQIInzUvMa_apRKGcuw7t3P7krQMXuAx8PXiGz/s1600/OilPriceChart101230.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipHtZnG48yNNcnUKcFFZof9Q2OAhl1mogqCVcS0Pl8RioSlzeS5XfLTe0f_B2smAcVE7GLW4DojQ-ISpVo17ROM9W3QMB2sRqXj3h4xnpQIInzUvMa_apRKGcuw7t3P7krQMXuAx8PXiGz/s400/OilPriceChart101230.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> But could I be wrong? All the news out of Fraud Central (aka USA) states that things are much better, and the markets are going up. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Of course I could be wrong, but hopefully never so much as a central banker like Alan Greenspan or Ben Bernanke who repeatedly failed to identify economic problems they had created, as in <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw">this clip</a>. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In May of this year we had a stock market pullback accompanied by a pullback in commodities prices. My 50 dma oil price peaked at about $83. In August Bernanke stated at the Jackson Hole summit that he <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-27/bernanke-says-fed-will-do-all-it-can-to-ensure-u-s-economic-recovery.html">would do whatever it took</a> to support the economy, which was not performing as well as he had previously predicted. This was widely interpreted as a promise to inject more liquidity into the financial sector, and the Banksters were off to the races once more. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In November he announced his plan to inject $600 billion of "quantitative easing", between November and June, 2011. And he would top that up with about $300 billion more from mortgage-backed securities held by the Federal Reserve as they matured. The end result is a plan to inject about $7.5 billion per day into the economy, which he interpets as the Wall Street Banksters. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">And about a week before Christmas President O'Bomber announced a deal he had made with the Republithugs to extend "temporary" low tax rates for another two years, accompanied by an extension of unemployment benefits, and a few other tax reductions for a total of about $858 cost to the taxpayers over two years.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Now, out in the real world where central bankers and Washington politicians spend little time, people around the world didn't like these plans. It looks like the United Subsidies of America is happily continuing down a debt spiral to oblivion. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The people I call the commodity vigilantes bid up most things that had real value. Oil, corn (and other grains), copper, cotton, gasoline and others have been going up. Copper recently set a new all time high. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">My take is this. Anything that is widely needed will be bid up in price, things like food and energy which are the first to increase in price in an inflationary cycle. But things that are not needed will go down in price, like electronics and housing. Earnings are not going up in real terms for the lower economic classes, while they are for the top few percent. In fact, the largest private employer in America, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-07/wal-mart-to-end-extra-pay-for-sunday-shifts-in-2011-as-duke-targets-costs.html">Wal-Mart is removing its $1.00 per hour Sunday premium</a> for new employees. Why? Because it can. I use Wal-Mart as an example of overall wage suppression.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">But surely housing is a need? Nope. Shelter is a need. Housing is a lifestyle choice. Most of the housing space in North America is not a need -- it is a luxury, so it will continue down in price in the US, and begin the descent in Canada in 2011. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Two things have backfired on Bernanke so far. Commodity prices have risen. This results in one or both of two consequences:</div><ol><li> Higher prices of consumer goods if the price is passed on; or,</li>
<li>Lower profits for businesses if the cost is not passed on.</li>
</ol><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> The second thing that backfired recently is that long bond rates have risen, the opposite of Bernanke's intention. American 30-year mortgage rates tend to follow the long bond rates. In the chart below divide the rate by 10 (44.30 is 4.43%). I guess the bond vigilantes are still around. We'll see in the new year whether Bernanke can manipulate the rates down again. If not, watch the American housing market lose another 10% in 2011.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPT-0OVC7t8sdsRS9hAmxNIOYLx6yhH5v0B-K65C8_hClVGMmQqtNJ9MZmuEWiuhvkaNlOwFQ53fvFHWccO__vUOplvReBkll0582FlKN7UlUzh9ia_DZI3ltELVT_b9iKwPKXCuvwH7x5/s1600/BondYieldUS30yr101230.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPT-0OVC7t8sdsRS9hAmxNIOYLx6yhH5v0B-K65C8_hClVGMmQqtNJ9MZmuEWiuhvkaNlOwFQ53fvFHWccO__vUOplvReBkll0582FlKN7UlUzh9ia_DZI3ltELVT_b9iKwPKXCuvwH7x5/s400/BondYieldUS30yr101230.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> While we're at it, let's take a peek at a 6-year chart of American national average gasoline prices (regular unleaded), from gasbuddy.com. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMec5OTP9u4MtNcp8GsXKDS79f1sfCOn1p_Mc1UtJzqq2lQSxqTqQJoRaljsi0r3jjLjycVVR1jom37jPXo7fFNbHql2_SnWb-3Siixoqftxndj4oUhvaMdV8kF-GRk6J6QsSAtg6_kH_4/s1600/GasolinePriceChart101230.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMec5OTP9u4MtNcp8GsXKDS79f1sfCOn1p_Mc1UtJzqq2lQSxqTqQJoRaljsi0r3jjLjycVVR1jom37jPXo7fFNbHql2_SnWb-3Siixoqftxndj4oUhvaMdV8kF-GRk6J6QsSAtg6_kH_4/s400/GasolinePriceChart101230.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Gasoline prices are back in the same range they were at near the highs during 2005, 2006, and 2007 when Bernanke was unaware that house prices could fall on a national basis. Forget 2008 because that was the speculative blow-off in commodities, and (in my opinion) is unlikely to happen again for several years.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> <b>After all the above bafflegab, here's my thesis. We're at the point where commodity prices cripple the economy.</b> I use oil as my indicator, and more precisely the 50 dma of oil prices. Oil price feeds into the cost of almost every undertaking. The money Bernanke is injecting is going mostly into stocks, commodities and emerging markets. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There is an undeclared economic war going on between America and China. Inflation is high in China due to "hot" American money flowing in, and the Chinese are some PO'd. This is an attempt to get China to increase the value of the Yuan, so Bernanke can continue taking the US dollar down. But as the US dollar decreases in value, things priced in USD go up (like oil) which is a tax on the lower economic classes in America. But the Banksters make out like the bandits they are. It's all part of the plan to accelerate the transfer of wealth from the working class, and what's left of the middle class, to the wealthiest members of society. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Don't listen to stated intentions. Look at what actually transpires (and has transpired) as governments and Banksters manipulate currencies, markets, and laws.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b> Be aware that most economists and Wall Street analysts think that it takes about $110-120/bbl oil price to drop the US GDP to zero.</b> Really? Maybe that's why many of them are predicting $150 to $200 oil price in 2011, and gasoline up to $5.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">That is extremely unlikely, and if it does happen it will be for a very short period. If the O'Bomber stimulus and the Bernanke "quantitative easing" were stopped tomorrow, next week we would see a crash in stock markets and commodities. At least 10% of US Federal government spending is borrowed money, adding to the debt. Take that away, and the economy is instantaneously in deep recession. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Europe is in worse shape economically than the US, and China is hard to read. I expect China to exhibit major social and economic problems in 2011 as their bank debt and huge housing bubble finally cannot be expanded more. If China doesn't crash first, they will continue driving up the price of commodities until Europe or the US (probably Europe) take a dirt dive. In the end it doesn't matter who is first. Those three major economies are linked like Siamese triplets, so damage to one tends to inflict pain on the other two.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> The minimum wage in Bejing is <a href="http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=20171">rising 21% next week</a>. Bejing is also severely <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-auto-restrictions-are-going-to-destroy-the-auto-industry-in-2011-2010-12">cutting back on the number of permits for new cars</a> in 2011, due to traffic jams and lack of parking space. Duh! Who woulda thunk? Maybe they could have looked at some North American cities traffic problems before re-creating the same thing. It just shows people don't learn from others' mistakes; another example is financially over-extended Canadians who learned nothing from their American friends and relatives. It's always "different here".</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">China is producing about 17 million vehicles this year and most of them are for new users. Every new user adds to fuel consumption, as well as the materials used in automobile manufacturing. In North America, most new vehicle sales are at about the same rate that older vehicles are being scrapped, so there are not many new users, and there is some salvage from scrapped vehicles. And the newer vehicles are usually more fuel efficient than the older ones, so it is possible for there to be a reduction in fuel consumption.<br />
<br />
That is not possible in China. Vehicle sales and fuel consumption continue to rise. The same applies to all developing countries. At some point their demand drives energy and other commodity prices to a point where growth in developed nations ceases (because our economies are much more dependent on low energy costs, due to our huge per capita energy consumption). I'm thinking we're already there.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>The bright spot on the energy scene is natural gas prices.</b> At $4 this is a bonus for consumers. It is also a bonus for the Canadian bitumen producers, since their operations are basically an arbitrage on natural gas and oil prices. <a href="http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/11/09/GasBillForOilSands/print.html">This article</a> states the Fort McMoney boys use 20% of Canadian natural gas consumption.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>This price is too low for gas producers to make money.</b> It is a result of companies staking out positions in shale gas plays, and then having to do a certain amount of drilling and production to hold their land positions. They know they are over-producing but it's basically a war to see who survives and who goes under. In 2009 there was a big enough contango in natural gas futures prices (higher prices for longer dated futures) that many companies could hedge some of their 2010 delivery prices. For instance, Encana hedged something like half of its 2010 production at prices around $6. That's still not good, but better than the $4 they're getting for the other half. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The chart below shows the futures strip price for natural gas for the next two years. A producer could lock in delivery price for next December for $5.02 and for December 2012 for $5.42. That's a real gamble because it's not much above current prices, and if spot market prices are higher then, they will have hedged below market prices. If there is no price spike this winter there will be no opportunity for producers to hedge some future production at significantly higher costs. 2011 will likely be the year that many under-capitalized producers go out of business. Chart is from metalprices.com.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuYs4XZXn08dOq0KqKlEYG7GOJlSh5pM0oAAoiJevItq51FJ6VeWAZiOc67jmkvcf1TwPqQIpkmP0gil47fhTOB6mWvU2ojc23LfGE16ZeJeKnEx7ztSZQC2y-88PV7ItEs8NCbO01gLH-/s1600/NGStrip101230.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuYs4XZXn08dOq0KqKlEYG7GOJlSh5pM0oAAoiJevItq51FJ6VeWAZiOc67jmkvcf1TwPqQIpkmP0gil47fhTOB6mWvU2ojc23LfGE16ZeJeKnEx7ztSZQC2y-88PV7ItEs8NCbO01gLH-/s640/NGStrip101230.JPG" width="323" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Conclusion</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> I think we are near the end of this current rise in energy prices, and many other commodities as well. In my previous post I indicated that I thought prices would stay between $60-90 with only brief spikes outside that range. For the next six months I'm raising that range to $65-95. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">If there is an oil supply scare (due to real or imagined issues) there could be another price spike like in 2008, but I would expect the spike to be lower, and of shorter duration. The entire consumer psychology has changed and people will change their habits by cutting consumption quickly. They have no choice; they no longer have credit available. The mutterings are already beginning about $3 gasoline, and the usual conspiracy theories about price rises are being dusted off and plopped into reader comments on the blogs.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Bernanke & O'Bomber may provide enough liquidity to get oil prices past $100, but I think this will be self defeating and self correcting. It is not their purpose to do so, but the commodity vigilantes will not let them depreciate the dollar and/or increase the money supply without driving up commodity prices of all kinds, especially oil. I expect the American economy to re-enter recession in the second quarter of 2011 (<b>although many knowledgeable people whose opinions I respect disagree</b>), and Canada will follow by the end of 2011. You can't cure a debt crisis with more debt.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Our North American lifestyle is dependent on cheap and plentiful energy. Watch the price of oil, as it is the most important energy source. The higher oil price goes, the sooner we approach the next economic downturn. </b></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-71600646151327752622010-12-30T18:21:00.000-06:002010-12-30T18:21:46.906-06:00American News Quiz<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">It's time to warm up the old keyboard before getting into some end-of-year posts.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">If you haven't seen my second YouTube fun video, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCQIiSAE4SE">go here</a>. In this one I used old radio and TV ads and public service announcements and applied them to mostly newer images. Just my bizarre sense of humour. </span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Today I filled out a quiz on current affairs conducted by the Pew organization. It was designed for Americans, but I follow American news regularly, so I decided to give it a whirl. It had 12 questions, and I got all 12 right. Some of them were ridiculously easy. See screen shot of my results below. Click on image for sharper pic.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrh49_K5hM9F8okt_Z_uqOBdb_VL-2SqVKF2lUeFxkaDc-u08Q7Vzb4YkkoQ_vsAeAdP-gbz9Yc66BXP1HM-yT1LlFgLztB4__6vuwv1b7qP0H0SSlDXyKMw_MQASvNVAnBK_-qtGAvgx4/s1600/Quiz.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrh49_K5hM9F8okt_Z_uqOBdb_VL-2SqVKF2lUeFxkaDc-u08Q7Vzb4YkkoQ_vsAeAdP-gbz9Yc66BXP1HM-yT1LlFgLztB4__6vuwv1b7qP0H0SSlDXyKMw_MQASvNVAnBK_-qtGAvgx4/s320/Quiz.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Apparently less than 1% of 1001 Americans got 12 right, and about 1% got 11 right. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">But I am puzzled by the distribution in the above chart. <b>How can 4% get all 12 questions wrong?</b> As I recall the quiz (I'm too lazy to go back and check) there were 4 options for each question. Even if you guessed at random, should you not get 3 out of 12 right (on average)? What are the odds that someone could guess all 12 questions wrong? Again, I'm too lazy to go back to basic probability theory and work it out. Maybe one of the Ph.D. candidates in the family can help? (I know you do this type of thing on a daily basis.)</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">At first I thought the 4% must be Fox News viewers. But then I glanced through the analysis and noted that Republithugs, the Fox demographic, got an average of 5.5 questions right while the Dummycrats only got 5.0 right. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There were three easy questions dealing with the results of the mid-term elections last month. Apparently this poll was done November 11-14, and the Nov. 2 election results were widely publicized around the world, not just in America. How can any American not know what happened in their recent election? <b>Un-be-friggin-believable! </b>And how can anyone not know the current unemployment rate, which is in the news every day, especially when there is only one answer that makes sense?<b> And still people can get 0 out of 12?</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Apparently Americans are poorly educated not only in math and sciences, where they rank in the bottom third of developed nations, but in their own current events as well. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">To take the quiz, go <a href="http://pewresearch.org/politicalquiz/">here </a>and click on "Take the Quiz". </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In the quiz only 15% of Americans picked the Prime Minister of Great Britain out of a list of 4 names, the same percentage who picked the CEO of British Petroleum (thinking he was PM). Of course this isn't news to Canadians who are bemused every four years by the number of American presidential candidates who don't even know who the current Prime Minister of Canada is, despite the fact that most of the presidential candidates are incumbent congressmen, senators, or state governors.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Rick Mercer used to have fun with this theme in his series "Talking to Americans", as in <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeNrgXZpeAw">this one</a> (poor quality video, audio is funny). </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">For a more serious informative clip with much better quality, I like<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV_041oYDjg&feature=related"> this one</a> from Tom Brokaw, which I think was a prelude to the 2010 winter games. Good video quality here. I think he was subtly making the case to Americans that if they attended the games they wouldn't have to reserve an igloo.</div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-43519752504630416142010-12-08T20:27:00.000-06:002010-12-08T20:27:17.611-06:00Consumers<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">When did we stop being citizens, and start being consumers? I must have missed the memo.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It may have started with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays">Edward Bernays</a> who made a huge fortune teaching merchandisers how to sell things to people who don't need them. Adam Curtis' production of <i>The Century of the Self</i> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dA89CBBOC0">is on YouTube</a>, profiling Bernays' methods.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I find the term <i>consumers</i> somewhat offensive. When I think of consumers I think of cattle in a feed lot. Perhaps the comparison is apt. (See my YouTube video production link at the end of the post.)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There is no doubt Americans are "the biggest winners" when it comes to packing on the pounds. It is regularly reported that one third of the population is overweight and another third is clinically obese. Charles Hugh Smith had a neat graph depicting this situation in his <a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec10/productivity12-10.html">blog today</a> (reproduced below, <b style="color: #990000;">click for clearer image</b>).</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj39tyv0gI7NGUTgUorVULN0Vneavn05ch3m52nIfUUEB4jAmlVvRWAJh3RaYRZtFmHM8JozfX3jIx_6lBGn44KGOPT-r6wzMiDxx9zbqL6RBqigZzTH0uivCepxB0lTLv_q1ki97oGWVz/s1600/FatBMI+Global.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj39tyv0gI7NGUTgUorVULN0Vneavn05ch3m52nIfUUEB4jAmlVvRWAJh3RaYRZtFmHM8JozfX3jIx_6lBGn44KGOPT-r6wzMiDxx9zbqL6RBqigZzTH0uivCepxB0lTLv_q1ki97oGWVz/s400/FatBMI+Global.JPG" width="381" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> But this post is more about our general spending habits, not poor dietary choices. It would appear that Bernays and his followers have been remarkably successful in getting us to confuse wants with needs, to the point where we have gone deep into debt to purchase nonessentials. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Just before the last recession rental storage units were popping up everywhere like mushrooms after a summer rain. People just had too much stuff, as George Carlin used to talk about in his stand up comic sessions. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So now that we've "pigged out" on credit and simply can't eat any more, it's time for our owners to send us to the slaughter house for debtors. But not before force feeding us more debt. The private sector is in the process of transferring its debt to taxpayers via increasing government indebtedness with help from the Federal Reserve Bank. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">When the system collapses the top few percent of society will be relatively unaffected while the large majority, the working class who like to think of themselves as "middle class", will be wiped out financially. This game has been played out all over the world, particularly for the last 40 years. The latest victim is Ireland; I expect America's economic collapse will be within 10 years.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I posted a YouTube video slide show entitled "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwDvenzww0">Stampede</a>" which shows my morbid sense of humour with respect to consumerism. </span><br />
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</span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-30164841125848764742010-12-08T18:22:00.000-06:002010-12-08T18:22:28.911-06:00Corny Math<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I have always had admiration for those both audacious enough and skilled enough to hide a scam in plain site, undetected. That's what I view the US ethanol blenders tax credit as.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The credit is $.45 per gallon of ethanol blended into gasoline, and should not be confused with any of the numerous subsidies for agriculture. This credit amounted to $7.7 billion in 2009.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">While the blender credit is controversial, almost no-one ever calculates the true cost of the credit for each gallon of <b>new energy</b> produced and blended. I don't think I have ever seen such an analysis.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">To calculate the true cost of the blending subsidy <b>for new energy</b> produced you need to apply the realities of energy return on energy invested (ERoEI) to the stated tax credit. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It takes considerable energy to produce a gallon of ethanol. There is energy embedded in the fertilizer and pesticides applied to the corn crop, energy to run the machinery to fertilize, plant, spray, harvest, and transport the corn to the ethanol plant. Then there is the energy to process the corn through the fermentation stage, and more energy to evaporate most of the water. Finally there the energy used in shipping the ethanol to the blending site. There is a byproduct called distillers' grains which can be sold as animal feed to help offset input costs.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Estimates of ERoEI for corn ethanol vary widely. Naturally people in the industry tend to have higher estimates than those who aren't. There are credible university research papers that calculate there is a net energy loss in the production of corn ethanol.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">For our purposes, let's examine two possibilities. The first would be an ERoEI of 1.5, which would mean 3 units of energy out for 2 units of energy in. This is on the high end of credible efficiency reports. The second possibility is an ERoEI of 1.1, or 11 units of energy out for 10 units in.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">If you haven't unravelled the scam yet, I'm getting to it. In the first situation you pay $.45 for each of 3 gallons of ethanol. But only one of those gallons is <b>new energy</b>. The other two gallons were<b> inputs of existing energy</b> such as electricity (coal, natural gas, nuclear, etc. as energy sources), diesel fuel, gasoline, natural gas used directly or embedded in inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides. <b>The process produces one unit of new energy and converts two units of existing energy.</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So the taxpayer is paying $.45 for the blending of one unit of <b>new energy</b> and an additional $.90 for the blending of two units of energy that existed before, probably mostly as coal, natural gas, and diesel fuel. In essence, <b>the taxpayer pays $1.35 per gallon of new ethanol energy</b> just for the blending credit. This doesn't count any other subsidies to the farmers or ethanol plants, or the cost of the ethanol itself, just the blending credit.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Now you can see where I'm going with this. For the 1.1 ERoEI scenario, taxpayers would pay 11 x $.45 = <b>$4.95 per gallon of new ethanol energy just to mix it into the gasoline.</b> This does not include the cost of the ethanol itself, just the blending credit.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is why it is critical to do some real science when introducing new energy options to get a true analysis of costs and benefits. It may make sense to convert coal and natural gas to ethanol via corn farmers. Then, again it may not. As more corn is used for ethanol production, the price of corn goes up for all other users of corn. (No ethanol producer <b>ever</b> puts that cost into their calculations.)</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">My personal feeling is that the ERoEI is closer to the 1.1 number than the 1.5 one (based on credible analyses I have read), which would make corn ethanol a huge boondoggle. (If the ERoEI were 1.5, why would there be a need for any subsidy anywhere in the system? Corn ethanol would be highly profitable without subsidies.) The fact is that the US government has no credible energy agency that compares various energy sources and the<b> true costs</b> of delivery of each to the end user. Without such analysis there is no way of developing a rational energy policy.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is just one small example of what I believe is unproductive economic activity adding to the decline of the American Empire. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijrEmeYZvyF2k4sUUSVhbX2W4NDBZ00BVbHE9v4h-v-DuopnlxGq5SfKrfNzoQr1HLAa79ODK1hJ39Bx1gOKcC0KzXPfub8hISPsB4CUARcJWdxkjY_018Lj4HNmOtEVyMaVHqI_GxpPK9/s1600/CtoonEthanol.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijrEmeYZvyF2k4sUUSVhbX2W4NDBZ00BVbHE9v4h-v-DuopnlxGq5SfKrfNzoQr1HLAa79ODK1hJ39Bx1gOKcC0KzXPfub8hISPsB4CUARcJWdxkjY_018Lj4HNmOtEVyMaVHqI_GxpPK9/s400/CtoonEthanol.JPG" width="340" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-4975824698421122342010-11-25T20:48:00.000-06:002010-11-25T20:48:04.554-06:00Shcool Daze<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It's been a while since I posted anything. I've been busy trying to make sense of world events. So, to get back in the groove, let's start with some humorous images on the education theme, then move on to more serious and (hopefully) useful material. <span style="color: #990000;"> Click on any image to see it enlarged in higher definition.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">In addition to "shcool" in the below image, you will note the capital "I's" are dotted. Why? Literate people often do this. Why? It's a mystery.</span></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9UcJHjERJhcR0Dpzupg18G_S9pPZqweiZxtiWs9zAhviyn6F9m6jvXusPAGjAU1n7iMLXQaAMDK8u_dSHFJrQnA3ODJ5s5oR_8wHPuklcT3y9uE67t5AXL6tzFMKMBvsZ8MUWJwNeiBvu/s1600/SignShcool3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9UcJHjERJhcR0Dpzupg18G_S9pPZqweiZxtiWs9zAhviyn6F9m6jvXusPAGjAU1n7iMLXQaAMDK8u_dSHFJrQnA3ODJ5s5oR_8wHPuklcT3y9uE67t5AXL6tzFMKMBvsZ8MUWJwNeiBvu/s320/SignShcool3.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I'm not sure what topics are taught at the schools advertised below, but I'm certain the sign attracted many teenage scholars. "But Mom, I've gone to Holy Immaculate all my life. Don't you think I should diversify my education?"</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvUEU2ez8bRsUtyMKALqpPPw71qxxdnDdxSB-WK44LwKwlLgEj2h7F2azafagK4YMQDoPfSN8UK-gOLdO5AWdRF7oXrZfGNy5fPOS9D4v7gY7Cfdq62xxNk_2Ca_mwjgiPHsEda0VC1ik2/s1600/SignSchoolPubic1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvUEU2ez8bRsUtyMKALqpPPw71qxxdnDdxSB-WK44LwKwlLgEj2h7F2azafagK4YMQDoPfSN8UK-gOLdO5AWdRF7oXrZfGNy5fPOS9D4v7gY7Cfdq62xxNk_2Ca_mwjgiPHsEda0VC1ik2/s320/SignSchoolPubic1.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">According to <a href="http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978538494">this article</a>, the above billboard was proofread by four members of the advertising agency staff. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Moving on, below is an image with demonstrable proof of the efficacy of home schooling. I presume this was at a campaign rally for current Texas Governor, Rick Perry. Incidentally, 8 of the last 12 national spelling bee champions were Indian American (ancestors immigrated from India), not bad for an ethnic group comprising about 1% of the American population. Those who put an effort into their education from an early age tend to excel (just like sports); those who don't tend to complain about "foreigners stealing our jobs".</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUVDhkjMl8w2oT4LQALAPC56OEsoe0s6F6nRf03Q1sfr9Oh_gIRjClXju3xl8fREgGf3It71WQmyO_4eACsS0IB0Njl-H7xQC1H1WfuI27PkipoY2y8HRSXIjcNIv5uySsr-Yf4eN-ZvnY/s1600/SignHomeScholers2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUVDhkjMl8w2oT4LQALAPC56OEsoe0s6F6nRf03Q1sfr9Oh_gIRjClXju3xl8fREgGf3It71WQmyO_4eACsS0IB0Njl-H7xQC1H1WfuI27PkipoY2y8HRSXIjcNIv5uySsr-Yf4eN-ZvnY/s320/SignHomeScholers2.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">And, for the final pic, I'm guessing that Mom or Dad took the below image, and she or he was also home schooled. This must be the "No Child Left Literate" programme that President Bush promoted.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMBgfjtdY5UaTr-YeblFy283Wup1yyRSZyxpq7jRss1SdzyKplWEgEdo5DoDJeteTdIyBrKX00Ji6oLzw8oRHzLJLqJIn6jtPm7coDWv4rySc2CNcdzuImgYSYE8O0WnyNB88jr4j64eJw/s1600/SignSatanILove.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMBgfjtdY5UaTr-YeblFy283Wup1yyRSZyxpq7jRss1SdzyKplWEgEdo5DoDJeteTdIyBrKX00Ji6oLzw8oRHzLJLqJIn6jtPm7coDWv4rySc2CNcdzuImgYSYE8O0WnyNB88jr4j64eJw/s320/SignSatanILove.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here are 3 simple tools/tips to help you archive articles or images you come across on the internet.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><u><b>1. Microsoft Snipping Tool</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Most people are aware that you can capture everything presently on your screen by <a href="http://windows.microsoft.com/en-US/windows-vista/Take-a-screen-capture-print-screen">using the <b>Print Scrn</b> button</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">But some people are unaware that there is a useful utility in the last few versions of Microsoft Windows called the Snipping Tool. With it you can capture all or part of your screen and save it as a .jpg image. It's quite handy for grabbing still images, news article headlines, or an image from a stopped video.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">To find this tool simply go to the <b>Start icon</b> in the lower left of your screen (presuming you are running Windows), select<b> All Programs</b>, select <b>Accessories</b>, and finally select <b>Snipping Tool</b>. Here's <a href="http://windows.microsoft.com/en-US/windows-vista/Use-Snipping-Tool-to-capture-screen-shots">how it works</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><u><b>2. TinEye</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is an excellent tool!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">From the TinEye site, "</span>TinEye is a reverse image search engine. You can submit an image to TinEye to find out where it came from, how it is being used, if modified versions of the image exist, or to find higher resolution versions."<br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Have you ever found an image on the internet that you wanted, but it was only a thumbnail, or fuzzy, or perhaps someone had put text over the image and you wanted it without the text? If only there was a way a person could find if there was a better version of the image somewhere on the web . . . Then TinEye is for you. This powerful image search engine was developed by the Canadian company Idée Inc. It searches almost 2 billion images and lists all versions of the image you submitted, and <b>does it in a few seconds</b>!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Simply go to <a href="http://tineye.com/">tineye.com</a> and read the FAQ (found in the "about" menu) for more info. You can do 50 image searches per day, or 150 per week for free.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><u><b>3. Microsoft Word Pad</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is really basic, but I find this small word processor to be quite useful in organizing my thoughts or listing links to articles that I might want to review later. The advantage over "full meal deal" word processors like Microsoft Word is that it is much smaller, uses less memory, and saves a smaller file. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I keep links to interesting articles on one Word Pad file for a month, then start a new file. Word Pad is found in the same <b>Accessories</b> folder as the Snipping Tool above.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This final section on today's education theme is dedicated to a few blogs. The first is an excellent Canadian blog, <a href="http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/"><i>Financial Insights</i></a>, by Ben Rabidoux. Ben has a very readable style, and is skilled at presenting concepts with clarity. I recommend all Canadians at least skim his material, and read it in depth if you care at all about money, jobs, housing, and the Canadian economy.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">One of the reasons I like Ben's blog is that he deals with relevant Canadian themes. He is intelligent, educated, and insightful, three features not necessarily found together in the same person. In addition, he is very analytic, and somewhat of a skeptic of general statements made about the economy in our media (which endears him to me). In a <a href="http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/11/25/chinese-investors-in-vancouver-is-the-ham-story-more-than-just-hogwash/">recent post</a> he dissected the assertion often made by Vancouver residents that "rich Chinese" immigrants will keep house prices high.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I would suggest readers start with Ben's <a href="http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/category/primers/">Primer series</a>. Scroll to the bottom and start with #1.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Ben's brother, Ethan, has made a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/ScrewedByBabyBoomers#p/a/u/2/ViBhdpTS4SY">YouTube video</a> of some of the Primer material. I find it well done, but you have to pay attention to catch all the images, which are both educational and entertaining. <span style="font-size: small;">T</span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">rès beau! </span><br />
<h1 class="header"> </h1><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The second blog I recommend in this basic education theme is <b>Chris Matenson's site</b> (mentioned in Ethan's video above). Chris has created a series of videos to provide basic education on economics, called the <a href="http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse">Crash Course</a>. It is very well done, and presents the concepts with graphics and comparisons that are easily understood. Chris deals with the themes of economy, energy, and environment and how they are interrelated. The total time for the series is about 3-1/2 hours, but there is also a 45 minute overview. I haven't watched the overview, and it's been about a year since I last viewed the Crash Course, so I need to review it soon. I get more out of it every time viewed, especially in light of world events since the last viewing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I will be referring to one of Chris' recent articles in a future post.</span><br />
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</span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-34862000332335345202010-08-23T14:00:00.002-06:002010-08-23T14:52:57.330-06:00Born-again Home Buyers<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is hilarious, and a testament to the lack of financial education in the Untied States of America. (It's no better in my country, Cana-dumb.) Today I came across <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/business/economy/23decline.html">the following</a>:</span><br />
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<i> In an annual survey conducted by the economists <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/robert_j_shiller/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Robert J. Shiller.">Robert J. Shiller</a> and Karl E. Case, hundreds of new owners in four communities — Alameda County near San Francisco, Boston, Orange County south of Los Angeles, and Milwaukee — once again said they believed prices would rise about 10 percent a year for the next decade. </i><br />
<i> With minor swings in sentiment, the latest results reflect what new buyers always seem to feel. At the boom’s peak in 2005, they said prices would go up. When the market was sliding in 2008, they still said prices would go up. </i><br />
<blockquote><i> “People think it’s a law of nature,” said Mr. Shiller, who teaches at Yale. </i></blockquote></blockquote><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> At least that's an improvement from the survey done in SoCal in 2005 which I referenced in a previous article, wherein the average estimate for increase in house prices for the next 10 years was <b>20% per year</b>. And we all know what happened next.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">These are definitely born-again house buyers because their estimate has to be based on nothing but faith. There is no logic in such an estimate based on fundamentals.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There are places for faith in a person's life, but a home purchase is not one. </span><br />
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<blockquote><i><span class="sqq">“<a class="sqq" href="http://thinkexist.com/quotation/faith-must_be_enforced_by_reason-when_faith/14111.html">Faith... Must be enforced by reason...When faith becomes blind it dies.</a>”</span></i><span class="sqq">-- Mahatma Gandhi</span></blockquote><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV4vfV6kslSGkbx-OHtBBXALaCMzTZXahuBI05e2YhLG0ZiLk-oxN5OY4YSiHLb1HcCZZyJas1mx-HFY8IAlBXsNhxU2M74wJI42Ds9irlD_89VTntqwTZ8UW28zcx7eI3xwJer5SO4lVG/s1600/BearsRealToy.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL8J7eQHyXjb42daJcO3EybGF5Aaf911pYpmXsXN0JYY2hbLraY42XcO6gKPBqw3ynedd1wOeKRj4VUANAtJJPEy_OLKkqUkbZy9KSLbmOXPeIh4Y3X4lJkfBqwlJ3bmtmaqbmPnNvOnz8/s1600/prairie-dog-rapture1_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL8J7eQHyXjb42daJcO3EybGF5Aaf911pYpmXsXN0JYY2hbLraY42XcO6gKPBqw3ynedd1wOeKRj4VUANAtJJPEy_OLKkqUkbZy9KSLbmOXPeIh4Y3X4lJkfBqwlJ3bmtmaqbmPnNvOnz8/s320/prairie-dog-rapture1_0.jpg" /></a></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-61902915259177621322010-08-16T22:43:00.001-06:002010-08-16T23:56:38.226-06:00Inflation-adjusted Asset Prices<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In this post I intend to focus on real asset prices versus nominal prices, as well as the cyclical movements of those prices.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Real prices</b> deal with price changes over a period of time after factoring in inflation. <b>Nominal prices</b> deal with the numbers only without adjustment for inflation. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There are <b>cycles</b> in the prices of all assets. The professionals tend to buy undervalued assets and sell when they are overvalued. The amateurs do the opposite. There are far fewer pros than amateurs in every asset market, and the <b>pros engage in asset rotation</b>, never sticking with just one thing, constantly moving their money from high-priced assets to low-priced ones. The pros also short assets (bet on over-priced assets falling in price) so they make money in both rising and falling markets.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There are many images in this post. <b style="color: red;">Click on any image to get a sharper view. </b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Typical Investment Cycle </b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Below is a chart of a typical investment cycle. What is important is that there is usually a <b>long, flat bottom</b> when assets are undervalued and the "smart money" accumulates. Then there is a <b>gradual run-up in price</b> as buying pressure increases. Following the gradual rise there is often a <b>parabolic "blow-off"</b> where prices ramp up rapidly and the asset becomes quite over-valued (although the public buying at this point will dispute the over-valuation). Finally there is the <b>price collapse</b> where the public is encouraged to buy more because the asset "is so much cheaper". You're not at the bottom until you hear all your friends and neighbours state, "I'll never buy asset X again!" (But that doesn't stop them from buying overpriced asset Y the next week.) At this point asset X probably has <b>dropped below the long term price trend line</b>, and is under-valued. This chart is from <a href="http://people.hofstra.edu/jean-paul_rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html">Jean-Paul Rodrigue</a>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPvJ_0YhDtMVSGDRZEw8IXTYToOcms8kkbqsqDEkq4zZ-o880ailAvmQKP7vNPuytNu0W8uAjRN1m9F1uY3cbJsGkOk-thu2ZFIwW4fyBOVh0_AVmYdgkxHUYfA5z0CWgXsXsgR50NRGI/s1600/BubbleStages-Rodriguez.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPvJ_0YhDtMVSGDRZEw8IXTYToOcms8kkbqsqDEkq4zZ-o880ailAvmQKP7vNPuytNu0W8uAjRN1m9F1uY3cbJsGkOk-thu2ZFIwW4fyBOVh0_AVmYdgkxHUYfA5z0CWgXsXsgR50NRGI/s320/BubbleStages-Rodriguez.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here's another showing the same general cycle, but more from a trader's point of view.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK4_vPCOMpiapzQgNUR4a4nbdLfm1rwVZFHaoGlrapIi11M3xI_ScIek4HmqdAmeh9thSO8dEs3i2JwhKEt1ih0hcxasofVOiwheqmTvlCVoxicbPbm1xMxT2_dLo_eu6blcfm-Yia0vCW/s1600/TradingCyclePsychology.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK4_vPCOMpiapzQgNUR4a4nbdLfm1rwVZFHaoGlrapIi11M3xI_ScIek4HmqdAmeh9thSO8dEs3i2JwhKEt1ih0hcxasofVOiwheqmTvlCVoxicbPbm1xMxT2_dLo_eu6blcfm-Yia0vCW/s320/TradingCyclePsychology.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Stock Market Cycles</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Below is a long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing both nominal and real prices, ignoring dividends. "Investment advisors" flogging stocks usually talk about the nominal numbers (blue price line), to exaggerate returns. Knowledgeable investors always look at real returns after inflation (pale green price line).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhemXwdUQNFk17YSvDqTLnJph2vPa29IWLck4hkxsOSw2CeUrlLv42XL56B6NKG_-tcvOU1x1wg3GnCTQOtZuqRn0oZrUI1FPTNGOGbi5UmLCTbyr8sf596ziB-vh8wEYb5FbsVl4FO9IlP/s1600/DJIAReal1900-2010e.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhemXwdUQNFk17YSvDqTLnJph2vPa29IWLck4hkxsOSw2CeUrlLv42XL56B6NKG_-tcvOU1x1wg3GnCTQOtZuqRn0oZrUI1FPTNGOGbi5UmLCTbyr8sf596ziB-vh8wEYb5FbsVl4FO9IlP/s320/DJIAReal1900-2010e.jpg" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In the above chart I have added three horizontal lines. The <span style="color: black;"><b>green</b> one</span> shows that if you had bought the DJIA at the height of the "roaring 20s" it would have taken you to about 1960 to break even in real prices. The <span style="color: black;"><b>mauve</b> one</span> shows that if you had bought the high of 1966 it would have taken to about 1996 to break even (my manual calculations in the past showed the break even in 1998). And the <span style="color: black;"><b>aqua</b> line</span> shows how the 2007 high is at about the same level as the 2000 high in real prices.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Note how the DJIA tried to break above 1000 several times (nominal prices) from 1966, until it finally made it in 1982. Of course the DJIA at 1000 in 1982 only had 28% (my calculations) of the purchasing power that it had in 1966, so that's why you have to go way up the curve in nominal prices to 1998 to get break even in real terms.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">During all of these periods the pros made huge fortunes trading the cycles up and down, while the "buy and holders" on average had meagre returns, since they tended to buy most near the tops of these cycles, and got fooled thinking they were creating wealth simply because the nominal price may have gone up.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Commodities</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It is important to understand commodity price trends because the price of commodities feeds into most of the goods that we purchase. While commodity prices have been in a general decline for a century (see image immediately below), I think this "gravy train" has come to an end due to large world demand increases. In specific, I think energy costs will drive the real cost of most commodities up (see my post "<a href="http://gullibilityplanet.blogspot.com/2010/06/its-all-about-energy-this-post-is.html">It's all about Energy</a>"), in turn causing a lowering of lifestyle in the developed nations.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixJMc4MIT9-EjF2O_-n2tUjTjNbACJtWezgDKKVXJlTxx8CRxaefuDTVvsyGCjEX4AzBzUfFkooeqIMa9FBg4mkB2nJOWmNl6RAViNQGDomkcQxkJaww2IGbiECvbOHdKBthf-Y1t5sEEI/s1600/CommodityReal1934-2010.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixJMc4MIT9-EjF2O_-n2tUjTjNbACJtWezgDKKVXJlTxx8CRxaefuDTVvsyGCjEX4AzBzUfFkooeqIMa9FBg4mkB2nJOWmNl6RAViNQGDomkcQxkJaww2IGbiECvbOHdKBthf-Y1t5sEEI/s320/CommodityReal1934-2010.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Crude O</b><b>il</b>. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Note the long period of stable, low prices prior to 1973 when much of the North American growth took place; also note how the top of the 1979 price spike wasn't that much smaller than the 2008 one in real terms. In 1980-1982 we suffered a double dip recession with high unemployment (sound familiar?) The 1990s was also a period of economic growth with low, relatively stable oil prices. Oil was at $30/bbl in 2003 before the looting of Iraq began. Don't hold your breath waiting for it to return to $30.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI_N4JCcrDpO7UdzQVSmmPk-44XWXN0w8ZGjHUmIsPd8efQC4tTkSK6q28Cf3uBI8jot6tdTWt2bwBQTegWY1hlaoF4yMThZzUgNSYvGaoxZ4pRe4TrjF0k8Zo19a3MpEc_inoWnk4dM4e/s1600/OilReal1946-2010.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI_N4JCcrDpO7UdzQVSmmPk-44XWXN0w8ZGjHUmIsPd8efQC4tTkSK6q28Cf3uBI8jot6tdTWt2bwBQTegWY1hlaoF4yMThZzUgNSYvGaoxZ4pRe4TrjF0k8Zo19a3MpEc_inoWnk4dM4e/s320/OilReal1946-2010.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b> Gasoline</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Canadians live to complain about two things -- the weather and gasoline prices. After all, we all know that gasoline prices are unrealistically high and the oil companies are gouging us. (I don't know that, but most Canadians seem to; I am of the belief that gasoline is one of the greatest bargains ever.) In the chart below note how the real price (2010 US prices) during the Great Depression, during the 1980-82 double dip recession, and the 2008 run-up all had annual average prices over $3 per gallon. <b>Also note the all time cheapest real prices during the 1990s.</b> The long term chart indicates that prices should work their way down below $1.50 (2010 dollars) in 3 to 4 years. Any bets? It can get there, but we'd be in the "Greater Depression", which is always a possibility.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Dz_1zUKqOxsT1fsqM3cJxLeEGdz_ACuZy-ZrYkjwtDrVtjS_jKFiOdhBb4egQB2KcgTBrSYT_4Tb5iWSgpctWPzYEhygmimBGYoNUQqke0S3rhcVoAip2gKK_ClOrK16GQcG4UQi0MZV/s1600/GasolineRealLT+.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Dz_1zUKqOxsT1fsqM3cJxLeEGdz_ACuZy-ZrYkjwtDrVtjS_jKFiOdhBb4egQB2KcgTBrSYT_4Tb5iWSgpctWPzYEhygmimBGYoNUQqke0S3rhcVoAip2gKK_ClOrK16GQcG4UQi0MZV/s320/GasolineRealLT+.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Gold</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The real price trend in red in the below chart indicates turning points in long term asset trends. We had a hard asset cycle for several years before 1981 when commodities tend to do well and financial assets like stocks and bonds are less profitable. From 1981 to 2001 financial assets did very well, in a disinflationary declining interest rate environment, and commodities were generally not great investments. For the last decade, and perhaps for most of the next one we will be in a hard asset cycle again, and stocks will perform poorly.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It is possible, maybe even probable that there will be a parabolic price lift in the price of gold towards the end of this hard asset cycle, like the run-up in 1980. Many Canadian estates being settled now have gold coins, sometimes bullion as part of the estate. Many of those deceased persons bought near the top in 1980 and the real price of gold today in the $1200 range is likely still below their purchase price.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In 1982 when I was working at a financial institution my manager came in one day with a hockey bag of gold bullion that he was selling. Apparently he had accumulated the gold during the 1970s and thought (correctly) that the inflationary cycle was over and there was little potential for further price run-up. The bag was very heavy, so it probably held about $1 million in gold in today's prices.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBZMdd527WmarkAKrWIFa7jw19P1Un9LjtzNMNONwqjsm12be4Ws775gjmZFzgJcTLuODHA3tZVwmurwJVDI4bqvQZnx7voYv9J1Da8wDQLVNk3R2OJ44IeG9xBlWvvLNsUTV1qCuetsqw/s1600/GoldReal1914-2010.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBZMdd527WmarkAKrWIFa7jw19P1Un9LjtzNMNONwqjsm12be4Ws775gjmZFzgJcTLuODHA3tZVwmurwJVDI4bqvQZnx7voYv9J1Da8wDQLVNk3R2OJ44IeG9xBlWvvLNsUTV1qCuetsqw/s320/GoldReal1914-2010.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Bonds</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">As interest rates drop bond prices go up. Note the highest rate of the 30 Year Treasurys was in 1981, at the end of the previous hard asset cycle, and we are currently at very low rates (closed at 3.72% today). This abnormally low rate is an indicator of economic desperation, not strength. However, the fall from 1981, in general, resulted in economic growth.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I recall selling a $500,000 5-year income averaging annuity to a client in 1982, yielding 18% interest. He had just sold some land in Alberta (not bad timing, but 1977-78 would have been better) and was looking for more profitable allocation of his funds.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX11uK6Nxr1qXDJdDcMl2tL4F2q7RKxnz1eruP-4OCcEyp1dYZ0dDtkPC2kqiijcfEpibkGZKX-u0c8WXqGouQ4HZf5j_Q2PgZI1JlTFgk4T7HudYynxC4aMmQWodPFQVd-c7paAPcJsPU/s1600/30YrBondYield1977-2010-1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX11uK6Nxr1qXDJdDcMl2tL4F2q7RKxnz1eruP-4OCcEyp1dYZ0dDtkPC2kqiijcfEpibkGZKX-u0c8WXqGouQ4HZf5j_Q2PgZI1JlTFgk4T7HudYynxC4aMmQWodPFQVd-c7paAPcJsPU/s320/30YrBondYield1977-2010-1.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Copper</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This commodity is often referred to as "Dr. Copper" because it appears to have a Ph.D. in economics, as its price movement tends to indicate the direction of the economy. I don't rate most economists as highly as copper in matters of intelligence, and copper also has the added advantage of being useful to mankind. Note how the real price of copper reached all time lows in real terms during the 2001-2003 period. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCfay455z7RYxUUu2l-5OGJSW7pG8qiGSVkn-cNqwctt3dWGYZ_i1_inW-8ZtTo64QTH1Loq-JqfT-ug_fRZUNt8HVBRDb001WnS50r4fUQx-fMG-hJjaoH6hlGkNKIym_CKU4mcU4yhNk/s1600/CopperReal1969-2007.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCfay455z7RYxUUu2l-5OGJSW7pG8qiGSVkn-cNqwctt3dWGYZ_i1_inW-8ZtTo64QTH1Loq-JqfT-ug_fRZUNt8HVBRDb001WnS50r4fUQx-fMG-hJjaoH6hlGkNKIym_CKU4mcU4yhNk/s320/CopperReal1969-2007.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Corn</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Corn is one of the most important agricultural crops, with other grains and soybeans generally moving in the same direction as corn. Note in the below chart how the real price of corn dropped due to cheap energy and improvements in yield until recent years. I attribute the recent real price rise to the corn ethanol industry. So now corn trades partially as an agricultural product, and partially as an energy source (and a damn poor one at that). Just another irrational farm subsidy, sold to a gullible public as the means to energy independence. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibkisX0CyEqYUmLstc2YDx49nnkxvOETCtG33919kLVVVlR3GUqnFVjXu80eNBNzM0mHl7afWeL5S2rnCL4IFYY3bb3_YwFIh9Ix2bGVuqcShth5FSHy-zUntHyP0huHQ-BCFRR7UdYfW_/s1600/CornReal1973-2008.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibkisX0CyEqYUmLstc2YDx49nnkxvOETCtG33919kLVVVlR3GUqnFVjXu80eNBNzM0mHl7afWeL5S2rnCL4IFYY3bb3_YwFIh9Ix2bGVuqcShth5FSHy-zUntHyP0huHQ-BCFRR7UdYfW_/s320/CornReal1973-2008.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Housing</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This section will have the most charts and discussion because it is the most important asset for most people. This is where North Americans have ("used to have" in the United Spendthrifts of America) most of their wealth. <b>Some people are very emotional about housing. Telling them that a primary residence is not, never has been, and never will be a great investment is like telling a Christian fundamentalist that the world is over 6,000 years old. </b>(That doesn't mean it can't be a good investment under the right circumstances, when done by knowledgeable people seeking rental income, or as a personal dwelling when bought near cycle bottoms.)</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There was a time when buying a house was a very important decision. People saved for several years for a substantial down payment of 20-25%, and then worked hard to pay off the mortgage in 20 years or less. A house was a place to live, not an investment. A married couple who bought a house often raised their children there, and retired there, never seeing a need to change (not many realtor fees in that lifestyle choice).</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Following the stock market drop in the early 2000s I heard many people say they'll never invest in the stock market again (asset X), but will put their money into something safe that never goes down like real estate (asset Y). While I laughed at the time, I had no clue how over-valued housing would get, fuelled by low interest rates and minimal or zero down payments. And of course the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqR15H0gNBU">governments</a>, <a href="http://www.allbusiness.com/finance-insurance/912962-1.html">banks</a>, home builders, and (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw">my all time favourite housing clip</a>) realtors attempted to push anyone who could fog a mirror into purchasing.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The combined effect was to push the home "ownership" rate up from 64-65% to 69%, as in the chart below. The same thing happened in Canada. Many of those new "owners" were not financially in a position to take on a mortgage, and will return to renting, taking down others as well. The "ownership" rate might even drop below 64% as the public finally learns that a house and a retirement plan are two different things.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbsxt7QuJKNf_BmPpODK8E0_t_sYOWBUELFOcy0I9aPu8VLIbG_2QCfuKWNVwsVIIvPIGBTIcxNbr-EdczqSfcOBsVpUGmDmZ-oOdrqCQ37mNDAU-Tud6dBQPRCOPYH-oNUR3r7hevp39Z/s1600/HomeOwnershipRate.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbsxt7QuJKNf_BmPpODK8E0_t_sYOWBUELFOcy0I9aPu8VLIbG_2QCfuKWNVwsVIIvPIGBTIcxNbr-EdczqSfcOBsVpUGmDmZ-oOdrqCQ37mNDAU-Tud6dBQPRCOPYH-oNUR3r7hevp39Z/s320/HomeOwnershipRate.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There was a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/05/magazine/305tulips_shorto.1.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all">study done on Amsterdam house prices </a>covering 1628 to 1973 that showed houses there appreciated about 0.2% per year above the rate of inflation. (That should be good enough for those who say as long as you buy for the long term you will make significant gains in housing.) 0.2% above the rate of inflation is not a desirable investment return.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Robert Shiller referred to the Amsterdam study when he did his historical analysis of American house prices as shown in the chart below. Shiller found a long term price appreciation of 0.4% above the rate of inflation in the USA. Note the relatively stable real price of housing from about 1950 to 2000, with prices contained between the 105 and 125 levels.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi9ubmtEJtLpc_GTAASJyggC5XomvvGkGWg-26eWFhFoyaljH8oDSEsEHLK7Tle0xOBqByD3LeAbV0yvimAbYKTqx7oX4T_s2h4gKDh38YLzvVXQIvhcLClJqvhG868NslV_gEUJcEtJCY/s1600/HousePriceShillerLongTerm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi9ubmtEJtLpc_GTAASJyggC5XomvvGkGWg-26eWFhFoyaljH8oDSEsEHLK7Tle0xOBqByD3LeAbV0yvimAbYKTqx7oX4T_s2h4gKDh38YLzvVXQIvhcLClJqvhG868NslV_gEUJcEtJCY/s320/HousePriceShillerLongTerm.png" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here's another chart showing essentially the same information, except it also has nominal prices (blue line).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizSkEtEHq_bp6QyzTKDSe3LMmTiJxAUKlAYvCy5Qu5al2nSAJVFiL7n9JU_7Qrb3iXqb-5VXJybL8Bh6eDT5aD3qMkCJ8h642lZfjGFzIOQIlRosNdflxUgSsY9KKDGckgBZvpe6AJ2-Bl/s1600/HouseRealUS1890-2007.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizSkEtEHq_bp6QyzTKDSe3LMmTiJxAUKlAYvCy5Qu5al2nSAJVFiL7n9JU_7Qrb3iXqb-5VXJybL8Bh6eDT5aD3qMkCJ8h642lZfjGFzIOQIlRosNdflxUgSsY9KKDGckgBZvpe6AJ2-Bl/s320/HouseRealUS1890-2007.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Below is a chart showing housing prices in the USA, Australia and Japan, with all prices normalized in 1980. Remember the 1980s when everyone thought Japan was an unstoppable industrialized nation who would soon own much of the property in America; people were learning Japanese, as you recall, to prepare for the future. After 1990 the Japanese economy went into deflation. Since then housing prices have moved down due to extreme over-pricing in the 1980s and a banking system that refused to acknowledge its loses. (Sound familiar? Show that chart to your realtor buddy who insists prices always go up in the long run. In the long run we're all dead.) </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Australia is way beyond stupid-high prices, due to three government interventions to blow the housing bubble higher. Prices are just levelling off, and there will be much pain for the middle class in future years. The prices in America are getting closer to the long term trend line. However, America being an empire in decline, I expect prices to overshoot considerably to the downside.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL8MdFS6Cji_etkn8M0-4p8T-J-nTjOzhyphenhyphenoe7HvzX5dQ2ew70RF6jDy5U2oom7mBuvzqIX_Ezlvl0eloBQI7Yt1cFz9Vo3fCpj-FGpeEyVsjs54TsNzBJoCe0DYE_iIaJLYbRnA78WLW1c/s1600/HouseRealAusJapUS.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL8MdFS6Cji_etkn8M0-4p8T-J-nTjOzhyphenhyphenoe7HvzX5dQ2ew70RF6jDy5U2oom7mBuvzqIX_Ezlvl0eloBQI7Yt1cFz9Vo3fCpj-FGpeEyVsjs54TsNzBJoCe0DYE_iIaJLYbRnA78WLW1c/s320/HouseRealAusJapUS.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Below is a comparative chart of US and Canadian house prices, with a normalized starting point of 2000. Note that US home prices and Canadian prices both doubled 2000 prices, but it took Canadian prices four years longer to get there. After the prices started to drop in 2008 Harper and Flaherty issued a gazillion hand mirrors to employees at the banks and CMHC. The directive was something like, "<i>Anyone who can fog this gets a mortgage, capice</i>?" Then they went on a disinformation campaign telling the entire world how prudent Canadian borrowers and lenders are. Any guesses what happens next to Canadian prices?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVdzLlIKHUcZmNvKr-0xRT9GYo1rDxHwguH9ujvgBDgfTDBV_YsI6nHzumohr1szsfg7XHbJ6qdv47erHUTWRtjvt9y5kDLPS8LGuul4SI_48ZpftGQd3mSHU9LkEzCcLrgSCJ2_YD05gD/s1600/HouseCanUS01.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVdzLlIKHUcZmNvKr-0xRT9GYo1rDxHwguH9ujvgBDgfTDBV_YsI6nHzumohr1szsfg7XHbJ6qdv47erHUTWRtjvt9y5kDLPS8LGuul4SI_48ZpftGQd3mSHU9LkEzCcLrgSCJ2_YD05gD/s320/HouseCanUS01.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Let's examine house prices in boom-and-bust Alberta, the only province in Canada to have been officially bankrupt. The next chart is from the <a href="http://edmontonhousingbust.com/">Edmonton Housing Bust</a> blog where there are several good charts and some decent housing price analyses. The <a href="http://edmontonhousingbust.com/2009/03/historical-prices-and-inflation/">article that this chart comes from</a> is very good, and worth a study. Note that if you bought in 1977-82 it took you 24-29 years to break even in about 2006 (see mauve line I added). Chart values are in 2009 dollars. Note also the author arbitrarily applied a 1.8% growth rate above the real house prices to establish the green trend line; house prices are about $100,000 above this trend line. But of course "it's different here -- we have oil". So does Texas where house prices are much cheaper. Heh!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-jZWcjG242oFGaU7-5kSs46xhhaGJhDT4qs83zlzXK9eNyd_5ZPz2nkM0HQ4eS_Yj49kC_RJIMKZa0q9d1pAkOwpnCsMaxCsPiRjVx7vZGAG-pukKcK4PFWfc1roAEm-DQ4ACZcabfRTW/s1600/HouseRealEdmonton1.8e.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-jZWcjG242oFGaU7-5kSs46xhhaGJhDT4qs83zlzXK9eNyd_5ZPz2nkM0HQ4eS_Yj49kC_RJIMKZa0q9d1pAkOwpnCsMaxCsPiRjVx7vZGAG-pukKcK4PFWfc1roAEm-DQ4ACZcabfRTW/s320/HouseRealEdmonton1.8e.jpg" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Next is a chart of Calgary prices where "<a href="http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/13/long-term-trends-in-calgary-real-estate/">radley77</a>" did a similar exercise, and fitted a 1.2% trend line to the real house prices. I added the mauve line to show it took until 2004 to return to 1977-82 real prices. Note that extrapolation of the 1.2% growth line shows recent prices to be at least $100,000 above the long term trend. It seems just like yesterday that Calgarians were defaulting on their mortgages in droves, but it probably was during the 1980s. You could buy houses in Alberta for $1 then; the catch was that you had to assume the existing mortgage, which many people ultimately found to be a very bad deal. But "it's different this time!" Heh!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjawNog7DPwJmKeWvVA6EdZqBpeoL_JAKkDVYURdescWgKaNBmZw8iDCW-XRn_jIMcsMTTDAaHGjmLPDCiXrruC6f2mSjrF5JQHuoFuLj-3Onsva-91nTmSQLA-_XO5kvxVi4Z1f2OfDP2w/s1600/HouseRealCalgary-e.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjawNog7DPwJmKeWvVA6EdZqBpeoL_JAKkDVYURdescWgKaNBmZw8iDCW-XRn_jIMcsMTTDAaHGjmLPDCiXrruC6f2mSjrF5JQHuoFuLj-3Onsva-91nTmSQLA-_XO5kvxVi4Z1f2OfDP2w/s320/HouseRealCalgary-e.jpg" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">For a different comparison, here's a chart showing Calgary house prices plotted against per capita GDP. Note how house prices jumped away from per capita GDP in 2006, leading to a gap of about $100,000 in 2007. Any guesses on how the gap between the two will be closed?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkNvxZcrWxuqHAu3qy9B8sjA8Af7KfeE_qDzqP0BJjcfLi-jxLkB8r3Muu1P-FWCdGYYZkTX_R_oNwGLBRdMy4ygpz8ndmmvbST6bB_3-wRjZFkEVMb1CzXKX2f5N5Cc9Lto9fqVssoVdy/s1600/HousePriceCalgary-GDP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkNvxZcrWxuqHAu3qy9B8sjA8Af7KfeE_qDzqP0BJjcfLi-jxLkB8r3Muu1P-FWCdGYYZkTX_R_oNwGLBRdMy4ygpz8ndmmvbST6bB_3-wRjZFkEVMb1CzXKX2f5N5Cc9Lto9fqVssoVdy/s320/HousePriceCalgary-GDP.png" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Alberta has had a bit of a price pullback, so Edmonton and Calgary are not as over-valued as Toronto. And then there's Vancouver. What can I say, except it is rated as having the most unaffordable housing in the world.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU_cW5BAENKU-kxQCdAPpW_1304JAt4fQxFHG0i_2BlllTLvNYwCOrrkgi3Ck8b_0tBR9vSa_qlqIudRGH4uX9f4YB0b3y0ouurdSWsCANOKYtThHjYss4myBbIQDkHpok9_Ryz7jydKsJ/s1600/HouseVancouver1977-2009.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU_cW5BAENKU-kxQCdAPpW_1304JAt4fQxFHG0i_2BlllTLvNYwCOrrkgi3Ck8b_0tBR9vSa_qlqIudRGH4uX9f4YB0b3y0ouurdSWsCANOKYtThHjYss4myBbIQDkHpok9_Ryz7jydKsJ/s320/HouseVancouver1977-2009.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Jobs, Debt</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Does anyone other than me see a trend in the labour participation rate of males in the USA? Gee, what could this mean for the economy and purchasing power of the population?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAs-c1nxtxAVUy3ASESEXk4_y0xZxGSIL6E-JeId9QKP2-kYzM8NzZF0uZ3jysUTY24xfVbOZkQ1VI58vm2nFBu8U8Tu2D0U_OUPVFElqYKdfwWB6Tp-ZT2Hz_DxwBqPdw5URvQRiEY_wh/s1600/LabourForceMen1950-2010.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAs-c1nxtxAVUy3ASESEXk4_y0xZxGSIL6E-JeId9QKP2-kYzM8NzZF0uZ3jysUTY24xfVbOZkQ1VI58vm2nFBu8U8Tu2D0U_OUPVFElqYKdfwWB6Tp-ZT2Hz_DxwBqPdw5URvQRiEY_wh/s320/LabourForceMen1950-2010.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">As interest rates drop, so do savings rates. When they can't get a decent interest rate on money on deposit, people tend not to save, but invest in risk assets and borrow more. The below chart shows the drop in savings rate in the USA, which matches up nicely with the 30 year Treasury rate posted above.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipB6aU_13ZIlPVlBcDYBsvt7ih5Cr_q3URLnMm_W6Z35u944_uu1zi0i7AS76T8s56Bu4AgraFJftqoM-bu0BYpnNAgSCRSg3D7CnK4qi-ISvXHcCjRA_dQrhIqCxpHPKL0LQl1_qOVbxk/s1600/SavingsLT+US.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipB6aU_13ZIlPVlBcDYBsvt7ih5Cr_q3URLnMm_W6Z35u944_uu1zi0i7AS76T8s56Bu4AgraFJftqoM-bu0BYpnNAgSCRSg3D7CnK4qi-ISvXHcCjRA_dQrhIqCxpHPKL0LQl1_qOVbxk/s320/SavingsLT+US.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Next is the savings rate for Canada plotted against interest rates. Do you think banksters might know exactly what they're doing here? The looting of the middle class continues. It won't be pretty when interest rates turn up. Expect massive debt defaults.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2CSPMj8-sxczwAprHAOlECs0n4ZMZXOEI7B_zdNqerpHq3A-OIRXIgbVnmm7FOWK8m6YQKY41qhxVQVoEpHmUnLy1vliVB8y1EjT42RbDQQM6t-GfbzacOiEJMVN1XE86sYwHoBKSV9sJ/s1600/SavingsCdaIntRate.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2CSPMj8-sxczwAprHAOlECs0n4ZMZXOEI7B_zdNqerpHq3A-OIRXIgbVnmm7FOWK8m6YQKY41qhxVQVoEpHmUnLy1vliVB8y1EjT42RbDQQM6t-GfbzacOiEJMVN1XE86sYwHoBKSV9sJ/s320/SavingsCdaIntRate.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Canadians have the highest ratio of debt to income (144%) of the 20 OECD countries, as described in this <a href="http://money.canoe.ca/money/business/canada/archives/2010/05/20100511-090048.html">recent article</a> (May, 2010) and illustrated in the below chart from that article. After we default on our debts, as many Americans have done, we should once again look more prudent than our American friends and relatives.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy6zsZfhg0VZmFGzcY5GTo91ZB8juM7ApPr1plDmBlC-ssbHJ1Y-2dF-oloYdbSQyP_H4fovdXYBuHRJ9EHWqV0PeFJwoVuYcI25Mn-t-1kxEMm63wckEL8z1tkjgOnUJSpzwqoEMRPsb8/s1600/DebtCanHousehold2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy6zsZfhg0VZmFGzcY5GTo91ZB8juM7ApPr1plDmBlC-ssbHJ1Y-2dF-oloYdbSQyP_H4fovdXYBuHRJ9EHWqV0PeFJwoVuYcI25Mn-t-1kxEMm63wckEL8z1tkjgOnUJSpzwqoEMRPsb8/s320/DebtCanHousehold2.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The Economist Magazine recently <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/16542826">published an article</a> that pegs Canada's housing market at 23% over-valued on a price/rent ratio. Australia wins the prize at 61%.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> I have previously posted on some real estate transactions that I thought were ill-advised, showing how little Canadians know about housing valuations. Just when I thought we must surely be out of greater fools, I find there are more. <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2010/08/11/housing-boom.html#socialcomments">This article</a> mentions how the Ottawa market is booming, due in part to university students buying condos. You can't make this stuff up. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">A 22 year-old student has bought a condo under construction, available next spring. Which just proves her tuition was a total waste of money because she clearly has no critical thought process. She probably dropped "Inadvisability of Buying Pig in a Poke 101" for "Twitter 303". And her friends are looking for condos also. I fear for the future of our country. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Our American friends must be shaking their heads knowingly. Sort of like watching a teen horror movie. "No. Don't go into the attic. Nothing good will come of it! Haven't you ever seen this scenario before?" </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Apparently not.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-78188390291127478082010-08-04T14:41:00.000-06:002010-08-04T14:41:09.518-06:004 Rat Holes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwmknEzQ_Z-Yi97nFOAyzImxRo3aPIQgNP7z451-PmKIrimSmPgD23svdT_hp94yWl1I5swP5NtptYXQdUYEyFcYxH1zSsqwwx8goBwKh3se6wWYusPooK8yg6-p1fsfK3H4WrUagguPVX/s1600/uncle-sam-suicide.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwmknEzQ_Z-Yi97nFOAyzImxRo3aPIQgNP7z451-PmKIrimSmPgD23svdT_hp94yWl1I5swP5NtptYXQdUYEyFcYxH1zSsqwwx8goBwKh3se6wWYusPooK8yg6-p1fsfK3H4WrUagguPVX/s320/uncle-sam-suicide.jpg" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>America is committing financial suicide by pouring money down numerous rat holes</b>. Before examining four of these destructive money pits, let's look at a chart from Tom Osenton's book, <a href="http://books.google.ca/books?id=XAtHgw5i8kYC&printsec=frontcover&dq=osenton+the+death+of+demand&source=bl&ots=vGvyX31K-9&sig=N9Kt43w7swaePL1ebHrkbhMDePA&hl=en&ei=gnZYTIC2MMHXcZbLgNYI&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBQQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false"><i>The Death of Demand</i></a>. Osenton, as a marketer, recognized that there is a limit to consumer demand, a saturation point. I believe this saturation point is determined by the excess cheap energy available to an individual or society, which determines ability to buy.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the below chart, look at the US GDP by decade.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b style="color: purple;">NOTE: click any image that follows for a sharper image. </b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7blaBAavaL_MDuRwX2rT4IDVgv3USYK2g3u5fH0wkAtgTNlg6ZNoHhnJdeTwpSSbXVdbZKI48cbx-tbmkCw3Wl-hswYXp7_8xg0W-2n5jH9b9ijPCxFJhxvyT0evCaEFT0Gf4IAad4Dr6/s1600/OsentonGDPbyDecade.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7blaBAavaL_MDuRwX2rT4IDVgv3USYK2g3u5fH0wkAtgTNlg6ZNoHhnJdeTwpSSbXVdbZKI48cbx-tbmkCw3Wl-hswYXp7_8xg0W-2n5jH9b9ijPCxFJhxvyT0evCaEFT0Gf4IAad4Dr6/s320/OsentonGDPbyDecade.JPG" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> Notice how <b>GDP annual growth rate has dropped from about 4.5% in the 1960s to roughly 2% by 2000</b>. Osenton wrote his book in 2004, so he didn't have the benefit of seeing the subsequent collapse in demand. But he predicted it. I believe GDP has been increasingly exaggerated in the last 20 years due to several instances of changing the methodology of measurement. I think gross GDP is overstated by about 1%, and inflation is understated by about 1%, which means a stated net GDP of 2% is more likely 0%. John Williams of shadowstats.com calculates the difference as being much bigger, as shown in the graph on <a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts">this page</a>.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> It is axiomatic that long term corporate revenues should grow at about the same rate as the general economy as measured by GDP. If corporate profits are soaring (as they currently are) while GDP is not, you must investigate why this is the case. Otherwise you will entirely miss the mechanics of the looting of America.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <b style="color: red;">The 4 Rat Holes</b></span></div><ol><li><span style="font-size: small;">Large Financial Institutions;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Housing;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Automobile Manufacturers; and,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">The US Military. </span></li>
</ol><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <b>1. Large Financial Institutions</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> We are all familiar with the fact that the international Banksters have gambled huge amounts of money, lost much of it, and then were bailed out by taxpayers all over the world.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">But people are still gullible enough to believe that those entities are needed. They aren't. They subtract economic value and should be eliminated; they are sucking the life out of the economy. The smaller regional and community banks can do most of what the big ones do, and what they can't do isn't a necessary part of the financial system. Recent legislation on financial regulation was superficial and did little to diminish the power of the Banksters.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Think of a bank as an auction mart. Some people have things to sell, some want to buy. The auctioneer is an intermediary and takes a profit from bringing buyer and seller together at an agreeable price. Banks should be a small part of the economy because basically all they do is offer services for a fee like a barber. <b>It is important to understand that the financial sector creates no wealth. The financial sector merely redistributes existing wealth.</b> The same can be said of lawyers, accountants, casinos, and many other professions and enterprises.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In recent years the financial sector has been redistributing huge amounts of wealth not from one wealth producer to another, but to themselves. No economy can survive long term with a parasite this large.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Here's a chart that shows the trend in wealth being stolen by the Banksters (left click for sharper image). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5lMUQTbn_6WULHAqLrIhGfa0X0_lj9XAbkYRi0nxgoCJdXjYMMvWAfZXeLiP6O0S69c88FtlLUMl4Em0hgnHd6SoF_vvkkkVWB-NtL_6APq3VY9cJqiekvS31yGr1wPP0BGu6vfyI1ZpX/s1600/FinancialSectorJohnson.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5lMUQTbn_6WULHAqLrIhGfa0X0_lj9XAbkYRi0nxgoCJdXjYMMvWAfZXeLiP6O0S69c88FtlLUMl4Em0hgnHd6SoF_vvkkkVWB-NtL_6APq3VY9cJqiekvS31yGr1wPP0BGu6vfyI1ZpX/s400/FinancialSectorJohnson.gif" width="280" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The above graph appeared in Simon Johnson's <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/the-quiet-coup/7364/">excellent article</a> showing the power of the financial institutions in our society.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">What is tragic is that trillions of dollars have been poured into the financial sector rat hole, and as long as they continue to drain the profits from the economy there cannot be any economic recovery.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">_______________________<br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">2. Housing</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Americans are finally learning that a house is not an investment -- it is a depreciating asset like a car. Leave it unattended and over time the price will drop to zero and lower (may have to pay to have it demolished). Canadians haven't learned that lesson yet, but they are about to. This isn't to deny that a house won't hold its value relative to inflation over time, provided it is maintained (at a cost of 1-2% of value per year). In any location with a sound economy that will be the case, but where there is a deteriorating economy house prices will drop. </span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Long term, the economies will continue to deteriorate in America and Canada. Draw your own conclusions about house prices.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let's examine some housing trends. First, here is a graphic showing the average size of new homes in America over time.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvMg22PI5zLX6K9ArfrVCbWo91uCykVLpU5_gWVRJXuSlK6hHp_sOS9WocivtCRyQtVsGkPcKHpt8y_f5cry-UjLTh9hKDDTszHusNEBhiItTNTSotJ9JUpquUSEvYHmRXidUYTa_Q23_S/s1600/HouseSizefrom1950s.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvMg22PI5zLX6K9ArfrVCbWo91uCykVLpU5_gWVRJXuSlK6hHp_sOS9WocivtCRyQtVsGkPcKHpt8y_f5cry-UjLTh9hKDDTszHusNEBhiItTNTSotJ9JUpquUSEvYHmRXidUYTa_Q23_S/s400/HouseSizefrom1950s.jpg" width="265" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> How does American house size compare to that in other countries?</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYZG1bKTRf-RsM1oAgU1oqyFnjFcLKMXgOBuI8ZvdJ9aESi3QpFTcqAYY9VUbXsGq4457syR3FpLUqytKwLQIRuU3e-0y7jzaqn1BEYdx8Rne1YnlEImeUKFZXqgvTP-Rf-ia2T5-kq8zW/s1600/HousingSquareFootage1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYZG1bKTRf-RsM1oAgU1oqyFnjFcLKMXgOBuI8ZvdJ9aESi3QpFTcqAYY9VUbXsGq4457syR3FpLUqytKwLQIRuU3e-0y7jzaqn1BEYdx8Rne1YnlEImeUKFZXqgvTP-Rf-ia2T5-kq8zW/s320/HousingSquareFootage1.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> Note the above chart is in square footage per capita which is a function of both house size and number of occupants. Note also in this mix <b>only two countries have per capita square footage over 500, Denmark and USA.</b> Canada doesn't appear in this chart, like many other American analyses, because the word hasn't gotten out yet that we are America's largest trading partner and the nation that supplies more oil to America than any other. The advantage of living next to America is like living on one side of a one-way mirror; we can see them but all they see is their own reflection and often are blissfully unaware of our existance.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Speaking of number of occupants, is there any trend there? Yes, indeed. Here's <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14942047/">one article</a> that outlines the trend to fewer occupants per house. And <a href="http://www.marketingcharts.com/topics/demographics/census-data-average-us-household-size-declines-to-26-10679/census-bureau-households-by-size-1970-2007jpg/">here's another</a>. Note that the last article states there were 3.1 persons per household in 1970 and 2.6 in 2007.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let's have some fun with numbers. If the average house size in 1970 was 1500 square feet (graphic above), and the number of occupants was 3.1, then there were about 484 square feet per occupant. If we do the same calculation using 2004 house size of 2349 square feet, and 2007 occupancy of 2.6, then that indicates about 903 square feet per occupant, an increase of 87% over the 484 number from 1970.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the 1960s in the small town where I grew up there were many families with 4 or 5 kids living in 800-1,000 square foot houses. I was in one of those families with a small house and 5 kids. It gave us the incentive to get out and provide for ourselves. But I don't recall ever feeling deprived, harmed, or held back in any way just because we didn't have a bigger house.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">Now think about the implications of these trends. From 1970 to the recent past Americans have bought 87% more house per capita. And in 1970 there were only 3.1 people in a 1500 square foot home. What if people decided to share housing more, and go back to the 1970 standard of 484 square feet per person? What would that mean in terms of houses needed? Simple math determines that Americans would need only 53.5% of the houses in existance. Do you think people might share accommodations more as their finances deteriorate? This is the basis for my oft-repeated statements to my kids to be careful about buying houses --<span style="color: red;"> in North America we have at least twice as much housing as we need.</span></span></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">For those who hold the misconception that housing is a good investment (i.e. provides a return significantly above the risk-free return of T-Bills for instance), below is a graph from a study done by Robert Shiller, appearing in his excellent book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0691123357"><i>Irrational Exuberance</i></a>. Note Shiller's chart below has an addition to indicate where American prices should go to get back to historical norms. Hint -- it's not up. And with Canadian house prices roughly twice American ones, what do you think might possibly happen to prices here? (Left click on chart to see it in higher definition. Enlarge by holding down <b>Ctrl</b> key and hitting <b>+</b> key.)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR_NVCMDszpMhzfc5yzBe7j_8aOJ2934jvWMcw3ek30FVnGz0qr6i2zC0aVAf4Ay-F10LVpthM-iNNNswsCHYX6IsJVWVOu4vFNDdcfR1t4167oCpV46B2WPbW5YV-ufSLl98dLS10m9Hu/s1600/HousePriceShillerLongTerm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR_NVCMDszpMhzfc5yzBe7j_8aOJ2934jvWMcw3ek30FVnGz0qr6i2zC0aVAf4Ay-F10LVpthM-iNNNswsCHYX6IsJVWVOu4vFNDdcfR1t4167oCpV46B2WPbW5YV-ufSLl98dLS10m9Hu/s320/HousePriceShillerLongTerm.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">A ten year-old child could draw the red dotted line above, if asked where the line should go if it went to a level where it was at most of the time. But if the line goes there that would result in yet more massive amounts of underwater mortgages and foreclosures. (I won't even get into the numbers here because they are available anywhere, everywhere.) And that would collapse the Banksters who are holding mortgage backed securities at prices far above their market value. It would also collapse Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two supposedly private institutions that are bankrupt, and will have to be bailed by the taxpayers to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars in any event. (They are rough equivalents of Canada's government-owned CMHC which will also need a public bailout after young over-leveraged Canadians go bankrupt in droves.) And it would significantly downgrade the $1.25 trillion in mortgages that the Federal Reserve took onto its balance sheet last year.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">How does Canada compare? Here's a chart from one blogger who indicates the pullback in Canadian house prices could be much less than in the USA, but over several years. This seems to be the prevailing view of many people whose analyses I respect, and would be consistent with previous housing price slumps. I may be overly pessimistic on Canadian house prices. But remember Vancouver is the world's most unaffordable city for housing, according to the<a href="http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf"> last Demographia survey (fall, 2009)</a> with Victoria in #8 spot. Other Canadian cities in the 100 most unaffordable cities worldwide are Abbotsford, Kelowna, and Toronto. On the other hand Thunder Bay, Windsor, Moncton, Saguenay and St. John made the list of the 100 most affordable house prices worldwide; the other 95 on the list are all American cities, with Detroit having the most affordable housing in the cities surveyed. So it's a mixed bag. </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguBc3Vo1CdYRlQ2Vyc0a5X20Ky3tIQBic3XRE-HnzOlvKLE-pRPryVbs7OOvhgXfODqcHo8Sb9gt3RsbsOU4EtsKG5X5CMR-ivfxA5CyotaDH386h6fw4M3Zjj72xzQfIw5eF5E0e5vMkQ/s1600/CanadaUS-HousingBubble.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguBc3Vo1CdYRlQ2Vyc0a5X20Ky3tIQBic3XRE-HnzOlvKLE-pRPryVbs7OOvhgXfODqcHo8Sb9gt3RsbsOU4EtsKG5X5CMR-ivfxA5CyotaDH386h6fw4M3Zjj72xzQfIw5eF5E0e5vMkQ/s320/CanadaUS-HousingBubble.png" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It should be kept in mind that when a trend overshoots significantly, it doesn't just go back to the "normal range" (reversion to the mean). Most of the time, particularly with financial data or animal population dynamics, the trend overshoots the "normal range" to the downside before settling in the "normal range".</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">This is one of the hard facts of life that the US Federal Reserve Bank, the US Treasury, and the most useless legislative body on the face of the earth (US Congress) are trying to deny. They are doing everything in their power to halt the inevitable collapse in house prices. And they are wasting hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money in that vain attempt. The latest trial balloon rumour is that The Powers That Be (TPTB) are considering a refinance scheme where mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be revised to a 4.5% (or even 4% rate) for a 30 year mortgage. I can't even begin to describe the numerous ways this is a stupid idea, but it shows how desperate TPTB are getting.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">Just more money down another rat hole.</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">BTW, a housing subsidy like mortgage interest deductibility is just one of the discriminatory, wealth siphoning devices at work. It not only enhances the wealthier, home "owners" relative to renters, but it enhances the white population relative to the minority groups who tend to be more renters than owners. That is a form of systemic discrimination. See graphic below.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ZR920ERBoioeUh4S-4GFEERzvZ6c35wol-ub1Dqm5FD-mm26L2m4vfHi1T6Z7XJtwvBo78yCWLQL_JU0KJvui3Jn41bn9ZtcH6bKzjphm5yCwHocvlGizT7AWWerr0A55xKjCMRyFYHy/s1600/Homweownership_by_race.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ZR920ERBoioeUh4S-4GFEERzvZ6c35wol-ub1Dqm5FD-mm26L2m4vfHi1T6Z7XJtwvBo78yCWLQL_JU0KJvui3Jn41bn9ZtcH6bKzjphm5yCwHocvlGizT7AWWerr0A55xKjCMRyFYHy/s320/Homweownership_by_race.jpg" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And for a bit of <b>housing humour</b>, one blogger noticed that as house sizes increased, so did the size of Americans as indicated by the obesity index (or vice versa). So, he wondered, do fat people create large houses, or do large houses create fat people? We all know that carp will grow to fit the size of the pool they are raised in -- are humans similar? (Click for sharper image.)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLKYb4Zb7r2RE5oBnMRTJN3ngPLCmgvFMwqcetbHPSA1CbP4-NrwLiJTY_IjijGX8jLxkHxfeda3GLsBz92QEIeWNlVwwX6moFnAirWJvGcs9sbpwCw2fxwcgUPcSNI2Q4hyUCdEvZb_8S/s1600/House_vs_Obesity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLKYb4Zb7r2RE5oBnMRTJN3ngPLCmgvFMwqcetbHPSA1CbP4-NrwLiJTY_IjijGX8jLxkHxfeda3GLsBz92QEIeWNlVwwX6moFnAirWJvGcs9sbpwCw2fxwcgUPcSNI2Q4hyUCdEvZb_8S/s320/House_vs_Obesity.jpg" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And of course for the two almost Ph.D.s in the family I do realize correlation does not imply causation, but I'm having too much fun with those who don't understand that.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">__________________<br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>3. Automobile Manufacturers</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I am one of the people who believe GM and Chrysler should not have been bailed out. They are incompetent companies in an industry with huge over-capacity, and will be back for more bailouts. They gambled and lost. They built large gas guzzlers for the bigger profit margins and neglected the more fuel efficient models. And GM in particular was really a finance company that happened to make vehicles as a sideline. </span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I find it hilarious that a gullible public believe that the Chevy Volt will bring GM back to profitability, and that car will also be their salvation to low cost motoring, while also moving America towards energy independence. This is truly rainbows, unicorns, and pixie dust stuff. That's the kind of disinformation that President O'Bomber has been peddling lately. He's as clueless on the economics of transportation as he is on everything else economic. He's the same guy who stated America will outgrow its debt by doubling its exports in five years -- a virtual impossibility! Of course he lost my support long before that when he hired two incompetent Bankster shills, Tim Geithner and Lawrence Summers into key economic positions.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">To get a more balanced view on electric cars, you should read this <a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2262229/pagenum/all/">recent Slate article</a>. I always find it a good policy to ignore mass media news coverage of anything technical, and go to a source knowledgeable in the topic matter, such as <a href="http://www.bcg.com/documents/file36615.pdf">this report on electric car batteries</a> linked in the Slate article. If you do a little research you will quickly conclude that in 10 years electric cars will still be a very small portion of total vehicles sold, and will likely still be uneconomic for purchasers unless subsidized by government which O'Bomber is doing. </span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">There is considerable "greenwashing" going on by proponents of electric cars. By driving an electric car you are switching your fuel from gasoline to about half coal and half natural gas (the two biggest sources of electrical power). <b>The Chevy Volt is a $41,000 car with a $13,000 battery pack installed as well as a small gasoline engine. And what would a much superior Ford Focus cost?</b> Hmm. No wonder the studies show there is no market for this vehicle in the diminishing middle class. It's something for movie stars and Google engineers to show off their enviro-friendly approach to life.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">O'Bomber is funding lithium ion battery manufacturers in the United Subsidies of America because they don't have any. Why not? Is there anything in the land of the free and home of the brave that isn't cross-subsidized 19 different ways? Little wonder American dignitaries are laughed at when they tour the world promoting their brand of "free market" capitalism. </span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And the studies show that soon there will be twice as much lithium battery supply as demand, which means inefficient American producers will have to be subsidized to the tune of millions of dollars per job created. <b>More rat hole money.</b> But, O'Bomber says, the price will come down. Of course it will. It has to because we are in a deflationary credit unwind, and the vehicle is grossly uneconomic with the current price structure. But other cars will be introduced at lower price as well. Why wouldn't people consider something like an economical <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Nano">Tata Nano</a> for less than $3,000 for city driving?</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Ha! After writing the above, I found the <a href="http://www.chuckroger.com/blog/8-3-10.htm">following link</a> -- someone who thinks like me on this topic. I suspect the Chevy Volt will be roughly equivalent to another Chevrolet product I remember -- the <a href="http://wikicars.org/en/Chevrolet_Vega">Vega</a>, just another over-hyped piece of junk! Remember George Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger hyping (and subsidizing) the hydrogen fuel cell car just a few years back as the transportation solution of the future? O'Bomber <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=rip-hydrogen-economy-obama-cuts-hyd-2009-05-08">discarded that concept</a> as unrealistic and switched funding to the lithium ion electric car concept. Government fads and subsidies are changed more often than my underwear.</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Now that I got some of the detailed things off my chest, let's look at some big picture info. Here's a graph of the trend of American vehicles per capita and vehicle miles driven from 1950 through 2007.</span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuqiZd5pG-W2SHEZIR1V9Lywl8we7GIEeV_5quDNDG4bXr11a7pfWSkYHUWQBt8CPdPoHBf5pk3EmV-dpWJsLBRZEWnteoK-PZalCIQD23ISLM5W0uDNt8j6ubMx9_ra7NFjwGVfqc_f5i/s1600/VehiclesPerCapitaUS.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuqiZd5pG-W2SHEZIR1V9Lywl8we7GIEeV_5quDNDG4bXr11a7pfWSkYHUWQBt8CPdPoHBf5pk3EmV-dpWJsLBRZEWnteoK-PZalCIQD23ISLM5W0uDNt8j6ubMx9_ra7NFjwGVfqc_f5i/s320/VehiclesPerCapitaUS.gif" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Note the trend upward in Vehicles per Capita and Vehicle-Miles per Capita as Americans felt increasingly more wealthy. What if Americans felt less wealthy and decided to drive less? Could the uptrend be broken and return to a lower level? There are a few clues in the graphic below. Notice how recent sales are back to early 1980s levels. But they'll rebound, right? Maybe, but how much? And is it possible after a rebound sales could drop off again to even lower levels? Stay tuned. </span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJMv4GpE_G1mY2YyYSmVuGtcR2YJRK9msDB-thWf9pWLK1mQAxzvzkEDNH2qxzrP2k4GoMe85fsxPT2aX3KOTsWHd9xFzaLqU5g0ebDYRQ1cDtWDFurVvPl4wtRdJS8dyKNB594G2jP37w/s1600/auto-sales.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJMv4GpE_G1mY2YyYSmVuGtcR2YJRK9msDB-thWf9pWLK1mQAxzvzkEDNH2qxzrP2k4GoMe85fsxPT2aX3KOTsWHd9xFzaLqU5g0ebDYRQ1cDtWDFurVvPl4wtRdJS8dyKNB594G2jP37w/s320/auto-sales.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Below is a more recent chart, showing sales for the years 2006 through mid-2010. Notice the artificial spike in sales created by the "<b>Cash for Clunkers</b>" promotion in 2009 (<b>yet more tax dollars down a rat hole</b>).</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL4mDebN3X2Vu83k2rjQatG4tTsTKN_hA_L3wgiXgozdVnVmLbC474V5yID7PqB1uIf7csNKDhR4AMXWTcfw41z-uWM2GgMaOhIZXf0jsUGLqVvNj39_Xo3L-ZpGmplzb-iHNqqZLv2p_u/s1600/autosales2006-2010.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL4mDebN3X2Vu83k2rjQatG4tTsTKN_hA_L3wgiXgozdVnVmLbC474V5yID7PqB1uIf7csNKDhR4AMXWTcfw41z-uWM2GgMaOhIZXf0jsUGLqVvNj39_Xo3L-ZpGmplzb-iHNqqZLv2p_u/s320/autosales2006-2010.png" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">I tell people (as they stare at me as though I need to be institutionalized with heavy sedation and psychiatric help at all times) that <b>2006-2007 was probably the highest gasoline consumption America will ever see, and also had the most cars on the road that we will ever see.</b> People will car pool more to ease expenses, and cut back on unnecessary driving. Many fewer cars will be needed, perhaps half as many, just like houses. Teenagers had better choose their parents carefully, because middle class parents will not be able to spring for a car for a teenager -- they will be struggling to finance a single family vehicle (less so if they get something like a Tata Nano).</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">And yet all across America they are still planning on building more freeways, airports, etc., despite the overwhelming evidence that there will be neither the funds nor the need for such frivolity. In the future there will be fewer vehicles on the road, fewer planes in the sky, and speed limits will be reduced to conserve fuel. There will be more bicycle lanes in the cities. Many paved roads will revert to gravel surface.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">It seems inevitable that there will be many more plant closings in the North American auto sector. Yet Canadians and Americans seem determined to pour funds into failed manufacturers, to "save the jobs and local economies". Take a good look at Detroit, folks. That's the future of the losers in the car manufacturing game. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b>When you subsidize GM or Chrysler or a new lithium battery manufacturer you are just pouring taxpayer money down rat holes. They are uneconomic for many reasons, not just temporarily, but permanently.</b><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>4. The American Military</b><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">How can this immense bureaucracy with its corruption and incompetence not be higher on the list? It possibly should have been #3 instead of Automotive.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Where to start? Let's look at a graph of military spending around the world.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq9OmW3UKOcRl0W7-4snaEjsGxu-WFG9VhPVEhOI6X7qiUBM6E1fqs_HRDhSnBlH5qE8gu6luIPCBYDCNnCQoMu55pKREZwjn_i1cEiZGOHXte5t8A0L-2_9MTpkhDpcpUSABWH-6AYARf/s1600/MilitarySpendingWorld.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq9OmW3UKOcRl0W7-4snaEjsGxu-WFG9VhPVEhOI6X7qiUBM6E1fqs_HRDhSnBlH5qE8gu6luIPCBYDCNnCQoMu55pKREZwjn_i1cEiZGOHXte5t8A0L-2_9MTpkhDpcpUSABWH-6AYARf/s320/MilitarySpendingWorld.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Let's look at a graph of American military spending alone.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOYWUD4kYAJ0QlOBg296TXhlIgivVd7iKSz_4kz1sevdhagILg0RW5IPo4vOa4BWVN37mjvcjYhGsemZzUkByH24LfehpKYbSx58xwDD8eMs-HCjGZV07TJxYC_hV_i-POOOZRnI3CWtpv/s1600/MilitarySpendingUS2008.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOYWUD4kYAJ0QlOBg296TXhlIgivVd7iKSz_4kz1sevdhagILg0RW5IPo4vOa4BWVN37mjvcjYhGsemZzUkByH24LfehpKYbSx58xwDD8eMs-HCjGZV07TJxYC_hV_i-POOOZRnI3CWtpv/s320/MilitarySpendingUS2008.png" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">If I recall correctly Commander-in-Chief O'Bomber increased the American military budget by 6% last year. Must be to cover that $400/gallon gasoline that they're burning in Afghanistan hunting down the 50-100 Al Qaeda who are there. That's what it costs to fight a war in far off places. Of course the military assure us there are literally hundreds of Al Qaeda in Pakistan, so they will need much more money to get them. But there are also thousands of Taliban insurgents who are unhappy with the infidel invaders, and as a result, tend to kill or injure them whenever possible. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Afghanistan is where arrogant empires go to learn humility, just prior to losing empire status.</b><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The hunt for terrorists was never really a serious one. That became apparent early in the Afghanistan invasion when Bin Laden was in the Tora Bora area with his small band of Al Qaeda. The American commanders in Afghanistan requested 600 Rangers so they could seal off the escape routes to Pakistan, and then gradually tighten the noose until they had killed or captured all the Al Qaeda and insurgent Taliban. They were refused. <b>That's when I knew the invasion of Afghanistan was about something else. The Americans built permanent bases, just like in Iraq and many other countries; they have no intention of leaving, just pulling troops off the street policing duties. The clandestine search and destroy missions will still go on, but the overt military actions will be wound down.</b><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The war in Afghanistan isn't going nearly as well as portrayed in the mass media. If you read the relevant blogs regularly you find a picture of waste, incompetence, corruption, and slaughter of innocents -- just like most wars. Photo sites like<a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/07/afghanistan_july_2010.html"> this one</a> give a small insight into the reality of a war theatre. Canada's Prime Minister is a control freak and his administration has manipulated almost all media releases of any significance. Most attacks on Canadian troops in Afghanistan are not reported because <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/17/f-vp-stewart.html">the media are directed not to report them</a>. Quite frankly, NATO is taking a royal butt kicking in Afghanistan and everyone seems to know it except the public in North America, who somehow think we are "winning the war on terror".<br />
</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Here's an <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/19/60minutes/main6223615.shtml">example of incompetence</a> where Blackwater pilots splat a plane into a box canyon, killing 6, because they had no clue of where they were going and were more interested in what music they wanted to play. </span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Gee, do you think there could be a little <a href="http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0706/taxpayers-afghan-aid-money-paying-rich-afghans-dubai-villas/">corruption here</a> where Afghanis are buying villas in Dubai?<br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">And perhaps <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10774002">here as well</a>, where so much reconstruction money for Iraq is not accounted for. Well, it's only 96% not accounted for, not like it's all missing.<br />
</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Here's an <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlfQQnH6_Cc">animated graphic</a> of IED explosions in Afghanistan. Green dots are no injury, yellow are injuries, red are deaths. The table with yellow numbers has NATO & civilians on the left and insurgents on the right. </span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The most interesting thing about American military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan is that the majority of the world are secretly in favour. They won't say this publicly, but if the American military is tied up there, then there is less chance of them invading some other nation. And <b>most nations want to see a weaker America.</b> The militant Islamists are overjoyed. Targets delivered to their own back yards; kill an infidel and never leave the farm.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> China and Russia are tickled pink. Particularly Russia who was driven out of Afghanistan primarily due to American aid to the Afghan "freedom fighters" (now called terrorists or insurgents). The handheld surface to air missiles were particularly effective in knocking down Russian helicopters; so far Russia hasn't returned the favour by arming the Taliban with such weapons.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">After the USSR disintegrated there was agreement that NATO would not expand eastward. But America convinced a naive Poland to host American missiles, right on Russia's doorstep so to speak. And America worked on producing "colour revolutions" in many of the USSR break-away countries, so they could set up military bases there. Georgia is a good example with its American puppet government, American and Israeli troops using Georgia as a military base from which they could easily attack Iran. So Russia is a little PO'd about the whole American military expansion and would like to see them bleed out more in the mideast.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The same goes for China. The day will come when China and America square off, and China prefers America to be much weaker militarily when that day comes. So every day America spends bleeding out its economy brings China closer to being able to take on an American military challenge. China doesn't need to win the battles; they just need to win the war as the Viet Cong did. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhu_Chenghu">One of their generals</a> stated they would declare full out nuclear war if America interfered with Taiwan or attacked China in any way, and that was in 2005. They're five years stronger now, and America is five years weaker. But the Chinese are patient; their best strategy is to wait for America to destroy itself from within. Remember where <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_War">Sun Tzu</a> came from.<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Sadly, Americans don't realize that much of what their military does is indiscriminantly throw taxpayer money down a rat hole, and create enemies in the process. </b><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></b><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">It's silly season in Washington (when isn't it?) as everyone is preparing for the November mid-term elections. The minute the results are in, then the parties will begin strategizing for the 2012 elections, including the Presidential election.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Don't expect America to do anything logical or substantial to improve its financial standing before November, and probably very little thereafter. No American politician is likely to tell the populace the truth as the recently elected Prime Minister of Great Britain has. America is not paying its way in the world and is headed for massive default. To avoid this, taxes must rise (on almost everything, everywhere) and government spending must be cut back. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Americans will either make the decisions themselves, or austerity will be imposed by external forces. This will be very painful for Americans to accept and the tendency will be to look for someone to blame. So far it's been mostly political factions blaming each other, with copious amounts of blame directed at China. But when economic conditions worsen there is always a tendency to go to war (more war in this case).</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">At some point the bond vigilantes will step in and force America to slow down on debt issuance. But I think that the commodity vigilantes are more important and more effective. If America refuses to enact fiscal and monetary responsibility the world outside America will bid up the price of commodities quoted in American dollars. Every time those prices rise the American economy will get knocked flatter than pee on a plate. See my previous post, <a href="http://gullibilityplanet.blogspot.com/2010/06/its-all-about-energy-this-post-is.html"><i>It's all about Energy</i></a>.<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b>There is one thing I am certain on. If America doesn't stop throwing money down the four rat holes discussed above, there is zero chance of their economy improving.</b><br />
</span></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-5889735423936532242010-07-24T00:27:00.001-06:002010-07-26T08:27:38.593-06:00Broken Cognitive Dissonance<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Over 40 years ago I started a university psychology major, but gave it up for other interests. But I never lost my fascination with human thinking, and in particular the bizarre beliefs people hold, and actions they take, which often display very little critical thought process.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Over the years I have come across many psychological theories which seem to have applicability in the real world such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs">Maslow's hierarchy of needs</a> and the learnings from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment">Milgram's obedience to authority tests</a>. Anyone who paid even superficial attention to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_prison_experiment">Zimbardo's prison experiment</a> would not have been surprised by the Abu Ghraib torture scenario. All salesmen know the persuasive technique commonly called the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot-in-the-door_technique">foot-in-the-door theory</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This missive will deal with cognitive dissonance, which I view as a subset of <a href="http://www.skepdic.com/selfdeception.html">self deception</a>. This is not an educated treatise on the subject, just one layman's observations. Since it is my blog I will present the material (as usual) with my usual mix of opinion, irony, and ridicule. People these days rarely respond to logic alone, and need to be given some emotional content to get their attention.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So how did the <a href="http://cognitive-dissonance.behaviouralfinance.net/">cognitive dissonance</a> theme arise? Someone I know remarked she was applying for two jobs, one that she wanted and one that she didn't. Seeing the apparent contradiction, she hypothesized that her cognitive dissonance feature must be "broken". I offer an alternate hypothesis. She had recently been to the United Slackminds of America where there is a dearth of cognitive dissonance. Hers may have been stolen.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Let's look at the a basic cognitive dissonance, that of a smoker presented with evidence that smoking is harmful to one's health as in the following graphic.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUpydaQqqGE_pGt12PMm9zOaS_BjcdKkyebMmWy_OQwLnT6zJ1EZHHUQ62ybk7-AmjaZKLzVvr4w9ivKPIJt3O3xytaeE8ye_4m3yvKYYuX_59SDMor5Oo1X553Qpozmb8IObYJ5jhWmOR/s1600/CognitiveDissonanceCigrarettes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUpydaQqqGE_pGt12PMm9zOaS_BjcdKkyebMmWy_OQwLnT6zJ1EZHHUQ62ybk7-AmjaZKLzVvr4w9ivKPIJt3O3xytaeE8ye_4m3yvKYYuX_59SDMor5Oo1X553Qpozmb8IObYJ5jhWmOR/s320/CognitiveDissonanceCigrarettes.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> You no doubt know a smoker who has pointed something like "My granddad smoked until the day he died at the age of 97, and my granola-eating non-smoking cousin died of a heart attack at age 39, and my brother was killed in a car accident at 20. So there!" By this reasoning, the scientific studies don't apply to individuals -- death is random. Or you may know someone who points out there are degrees of harm, and smoking helps him/her control weight (excess fat kills) or relax (stress kills). Or you may know someone who has used a false equivalency argument: "At least I don't use drugs." The rationales that people will use to decrease the cognitive dissonance inherent in the smoking habit are endless.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Want to experience a small amount of frustration similar to that found in cognitive dissonance? Follow the instructions in the graphic below.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU-NZN8F-IKs7cSh6sYsnANANs9Rt0uUOS4DSd8h8apctvmV3utCCE93g_4Te3kSnGe1vAfagkCLx4T7fBMfBkyhErDFW-t7f4lvQIlCVbSQ2HQhrlV2IRUwkp_SOUh5EhX2MnorvWfo_9/s1600/CognitiveDissonanceColours.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU-NZN8F-IKs7cSh6sYsnANANs9Rt0uUOS4DSd8h8apctvmV3utCCE93g_4Te3kSnGe1vAfagkCLx4T7fBMfBkyhErDFW-t7f4lvQIlCVbSQ2HQhrlV2IRUwkp_SOUh5EhX2MnorvWfo_9/s320/CognitiveDissonanceColours.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here's how Scott Adams treated cognitive dissonance in some of his <a href="http://search.dilbert.com/search?w=dissonance&x=0&y=0">Dilbert cartoon strips</a>.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">_____________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Now let's look at some real life examples, most drawn from the United Sensationalists of America. Remember the <a href="http://www.politikditto.com/2009/04/barack-obama-bows-down-to-saudi-king.html">right wing furor</a> over President Obama bowing to Saudi King Abdullah? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I can't find nearly as many conservative commentators criticizing George Bush's "friendly treatment" of the same guy. The following two photos were taken in 2005 when Bush was pleading with the Saud family to do something to decrease the price of oil, and at the same meeting the Saudis criticized America over the war in Iraq.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCiU8TC_CXrq5N8I7Zv3aYqv9DsMMTlnaNBC6OuqGsxDt0jP4LI7iRshHpRqTihxvBBAsw28f_ARWQY36lceLWLZZ14zZMgm-mbPrP-ZmMANzVQV1qSd-We-wgxLCfhwXyKeWno7_3MmSo/s1600/BushHandsSaudi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCiU8TC_CXrq5N8I7Zv3aYqv9DsMMTlnaNBC6OuqGsxDt0jP4LI7iRshHpRqTihxvBBAsw28f_ARWQY36lceLWLZZ14zZMgm-mbPrP-ZmMANzVQV1qSd-We-wgxLCfhwXyKeWno7_3MmSo/s320/BushHandsSaudi.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The above image no doubt caused some neurons to short-circuit in the minds of hardline conservatives. Some criticized the journalist who published the photo as being on a smear campaign against Bush.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here's another from the same meeting.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHOeM57Ssv7_FlNH19YjUutMx8wRo3s87RDKSygPUuWf64qCZjq16AJlVTHXGViCa-qQBlQSqyHvs2PMb1Z21rJMnqhbYKMEqQ9jVf0QvOpE5JvQOWXbSuUb2jPO9C_DjKw5TOpVz5WNP-/s1600/BushKissSaudi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHOeM57Ssv7_FlNH19YjUutMx8wRo3s87RDKSygPUuWf64qCZjq16AJlVTHXGViCa-qQBlQSqyHvs2PMb1Z21rJMnqhbYKMEqQ9jVf0QvOpE5JvQOWXbSuUb2jPO9C_DjKw5TOpVz5WNP-/s320/BushKissSaudi.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I think Dick Cheney had his 14th heart attack when he saw this.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">But in my mind this scenario may have gone further. <b>Note: this is purely hypothetical.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In the hypothetical scenario, after the cameras are sent home, Bush and Abdullah casually stroll off hand-in-hand into dense foliage, exchanging the occasional smooch along the way. They don't re-appear for some time, while security personnel surrounding the area appear quite agitated. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Some days later a rumour (in my mind only) surfaces that Bush allowed Abdullah to commit indignities upon him. Whitehouse spokesmen mutter things like, "The President was on vacation. You know how one thing can lead to another. We're all human. Nothing illegal happened. There's a bigger picture here; sometimes you have to take one for the Gipper."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">When asked specifically whether penetration was involved, all Whitehouse spokespeople stated that to their knowledge that was not the case. However, they were fairly consistent in stating the non-existent hypothetical penetration would have been only this much:</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX4gHNnXAfiZ_DM5_5j_X2sGyaR3OC0RiYgDOEeX-8Jljg4AAcYO_eQqJSKF5McLrY9ovdk4yLrQQl93LNYXFJDabjQmmYZWI2h3FhQe-jTFOyG4byX5Qibg4zU8suwblqEbEl2OKQgAq5/s1600/BushSizeCollage.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX4gHNnXAfiZ_DM5_5j_X2sGyaR3OC0RiYgDOEeX-8Jljg4AAcYO_eQqJSKF5McLrY9ovdk4yLrQQl93LNYXFJDabjQmmYZWI2h3FhQe-jTFOyG4byX5Qibg4zU8suwblqEbEl2OKQgAq5/s400/BushSizeCollage.jpg" width="322" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Anything for oil. It was the hypothetic patriotic thing to do.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">_________________________________</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There has to be considerable cognitive dissonance in America over the numerous wars for profit. I suspect much of the angst is covered up with anti-depressants. I know people who served in Viet Nam and some of them still maintain they won the war. Some of them claim it wasn't a clear win, but would have been if the pansies in the Whitehouse would have let them bomb more (as if that was even possible).</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Others admit they lost. Some acknowledge they were lied to by the government throughout the war, and even understand the Gulf of Tonkin incident was a <a href="http://theupliftingcrane.wordpress.com/2010/07/16/gulf-of-tonkin-was-a-staged-false-flag-event/">false flag incident</a> designed to stampede the Congress into voting for war. Many were exposed to agent orange and other chemicals while being told the chemicals were not harmful to humans. Veterans with disabilities struggled getting treatment for their injuries upon return. The movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096969/">Born on the Fourth of July</a> portrays the life of Ron Kovic, and the way Americans approached the war and the impact it had on individuals and families. (By the way, the real life Ron Kovic has absolutely no use for Colin Powell. That would be due to Powell's early career "<a href="http://consortiumnews.com/2007/112807a.html">whitewash</a>" study of American war atrocities in Viet Nam, followed by many other Powell misrepresentations of American military aggression and covert operations as he climbed in rank, culminating in his misrepresentations to the United Nations to justify the war in Iraq. Note the article in the previous link does not deal with the Gulf War of 1991 where Powell was heavily involved in misrepresenting the true state of affairs.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">What boggles my mind, and is giving me my own cognitive dissonance, is how seemingly normal people who served in Viet Nam can encourage their kids to serve in Iraq. This absolutely dumbfounds me! They seem to view it as their patriotic duty to "defend their freedoms" by each generation bombing some nearly defenceless people to smithereens. The attitude was <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9c8Rba5NVE">displayed well</a> by Lieutenant Dan in the movie <i>Forest Gump</i>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> _______________________</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Here's a personal anecdote of where I sucker-punched (mentally) an American I met in a campground in an unnamed State in 2007. He was quite voluble, not very bright, and had a strong opinion on every issue others introduced, including those he had minimal knowlege on. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This guy was from Minnesota, about 280 pounds, beer gut much in evidence. He had a huge truck with duallies and a fifth wheel attachment and was towing a trailer that would adequately house three families of undocumented alien labourers. He was a strong supporter of the US military, and was one of those ignoramuses who brings up every (mostly incorrect) stereotype Americans have of Canadians, and seem to find hilarious. His attitude was very similar that portrayed by <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TL01SReeOqE">this annoying guy</a>, only the Minnesota guy was almost twice as big.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So at one point the Minnesotan was pontificating on terrorists and national security. He unwisely brought up the canard about "All Muslims aren't terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims." Without missing a beat, I politely interjected, "Oh, I didn't know Timothy McVeigh was a Muslim. When did he convert?" Game, set, and match! (Mental fist pump!)</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">You could literally see the cognitive dissonance richocheting through the rather empty spaces of this guy's brain. McVeigh, the highly intelligent American war hero killed 168 Americans in Oklahoma City. So for a short while this guy just sort of gaped and tried unsuccessfully to say something, similar to a carp out of water. Then he just ambled off to his trailer.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There was one other Canadian there that I knew although we weren't travelling together, and he was of the opinion I shouldn't have done that. The American probably had a handgun in his trailer, and just might decide to return with it. I hoped the Minnesotan would return so I could ask him if he knew the real reason Americans were dying in Iraq. After listening to the normal propaganda about "fighting them there so we don't have to fight them here", etc., I would patiently explain, "No, your military is in Iraq because too many people like you drive gas-guzzling vehicles. It's all about stealing Iraqi oil." But he never came back.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">By the way, from a purely technical point of view, Timothy McVeigh could be viewed as a slightly more efficient killer than the 9/11 terrorists. McVeigh killed 168, whereas the Muslims killed fewer than 3,000. If each of the 19 Muslims had killed 168, the total would have been 3192. I'm leaving Terry McNichols' assistance out, as it was minimal, as well as the network assistance to the Muslim terrorists because that is hard to quantify. So once again the superiority of American military training is demonstrated.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">_________________________</span><br />
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Today the <a href="http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com/2010/07/wheres-economic-recovery.html">ECRI Leading Index</a> came in at -10.5% year-over-year. This index is widely followed by economists and investors. Whenever it has dropped 10% year-over-year in the last 40-50 years the American economy has either been in recession or entered one shortly thereafter. It was widely accepted as predicting an upturn in the American economy last year when it turned up. But now for some strange reason the developers of the index say it doesn't predict a double dip recession, despite its 100% accuracy in the past. I suspect there is considerable cognitive dissonance going on there.<br />
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<br />
<b>Follow up, Monday July 26.</b> David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff posted the below chart on the ECRI today. The horizontal axis is year, vertical axis is ECRI year-over-year percentage change, and vertical green bars are recession periods.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVeIoCPQdIYV-FxtqH1l0Qd2m6KNx0kXqoe916_fSZcF_-aJ9Gmb3m6D1t0DA1JiTHSyEeeosn5MCMJ6kpALJS7eDOWxTdhbVRD1Okwdbqr5Ud80uUK7G8dn5RGv2FGdWT-sD4cEe3HYdX/s1600/ECRI-Rosenberg.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVeIoCPQdIYV-FxtqH1l0Qd2m6KNx0kXqoe916_fSZcF_-aJ9Gmb3m6D1t0DA1JiTHSyEeeosn5MCMJ6kpALJS7eDOWxTdhbVRD1Okwdbqr5Ud80uUK7G8dn5RGv2FGdWT-sD4cEe3HYdX/s320/ECRI-Rosenberg.JPG" width="320" /></a></div></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Many Canadians are quite optimistic about the Canadian economy. After all, we're special and our banks are the most conservative in the world. Everyone wants to live in Vancouver so median house prices at 10x median income seems normal, even though the long term historical standard worldwide tends to be 3x-4x. Toronto prices are high also, but they, too seem sustainable (to Torontonians). Canadians are conservative and the banks won't let them take on more debt than they can manage. We don't have subprime loans. Our governments aren't heavily indebted. We can't experience a nation-wide housing collapse like America, just a little 5-10% pullback on rare occasions. Or at least that's what we're told by the government and media. All those warm and fuzzy statements are untrue. It'll be interesting to see the cognitive dissonance across Canada when the gullible public find out what happens when reality sets in. It has already started, but most people will be in denial.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">After writing the above paragraph I thought I would check to see if Garth Turner had a new post on <a href="http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/07/23/the-no-brainer/#comments">his blog</a>. He did, and I agree with his comments of the Canadian housing market being over-priced. I disagree that the US housing market is due for a rebound next year, and to be even more argumentative predict that the US will be statistically indistinguishable from other third world countries by 2020. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">What most professional economists and money managers fail to understand is that energy underlies all potential growth, not interest rates or access to capital. No growth in energy supply = no economic growth. Rise in energy supply, but at cost in excess of inflation rate = no growth, low growth, or recession. Decrease in energy supply = depression. While they can pontificate on future price movements based on past cycles, they fail to understand the present situation is nothing like anything we have experienced in the past. The cognitive dissonance in the minds of economists will be enormous as their models of the world are increasingly at variance with reality. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I'm not sure if Garth is looking at increasing income and wealth disparity in America, but <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/15-charts-about-wealth-and-inequality-in-america-2010-4#the-gap-between-the-top-1-and-everyone-else-hasnt-been-this-bad-since-the-roaring-twenties-1">I certainly am</a>. Canadian numbers are similar, but not quite as bad. Our economies are based on consumer spending providing 65-70% of the impetus. Check the graphs in the preceeding link, or <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnVJAkhGyjQ">Cenk Uygur's YouTube discussion of the same graphs</a>. North American consumers have been decreasing their savings rates for years, and taking on increasing amounts of debt. The consumer debt has reached unsustainable levels and not all can be paid back. The same applies for Government debt, which is just citizen debt by another name. Citizen and government debt has increased dramatically as corporations have transferred their debt to the public; that's what all the bailouts were about. These are the manifestations of a dysfunctional society. That which cannot continue won't; expect social unrest and blood in the streets before we start a new cycle. Think of the French Revolution as the closest analogy.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">_________________________<br />
</div><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In the remote possibility that my analyses are wrong, it will be because a plentiful and cheap energy source has been found to supplement oil. There is considerable hype on "green renewables" which in most cases is a euphemism for "we're dumber than rocks and never studied math, chemistry or physics, and don't even know the physical constraints inherent in our hair-brained schemes". However, there is one potential renewable energy source that Americans are overlooking. I think it has the potential to make America energy self-sufficient. The source?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Liposuction biodiesel; the fuel of the future!</span></b></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9gldrWsWoLodoqY4lh5-d7TavJmZt2nd_HJ9n3yHc02eph_vx8a3ed4_JGn2CgS7HeqiTKDf4Epb6pNzWbgRRYPAVprGFnUksvFeleollUGgcU4xSHolQHNXCqEJNdCFKIXyd9oOc3iqW/s1600/FatGirlsTruck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9gldrWsWoLodoqY4lh5-d7TavJmZt2nd_HJ9n3yHc02eph_vx8a3ed4_JGn2CgS7HeqiTKDf4Epb6pNzWbgRRYPAVprGFnUksvFeleollUGgcU4xSHolQHNXCqEJNdCFKIXyd9oOc3iqW/s320/FatGirlsTruck.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span></b></span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-80258290412631064142010-07-06T10:11:00.001-06:002010-07-06T10:45:50.945-06:00Chinese, North American Legal Systems<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The Zero Hedge blog has a <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-espionage-don%E2%80%99t-mess-china">brief article</a> written by "Static Chaos" on the eight year jail sentence given to an American geologist convicted of industrial spying, clandestinely buying a database of Chinese oil resource information. He complained of torture. Some of the links provided in the article are reproduced below.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/world/asia/06china.html?_r=3">Americans are dismayed</a> over what they perceive as an outrageous abuse of law. They conveniently forget how they treat industrial espionage. For instance they <a href="http://www.dailytech.com/Boeing+Spy+Given+15Year+Prison+Sentence/article17637.htm">sentenced this 74 year old Chinese spy to 15 years</a> after he was convicted of stealing classified information from Boeing.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There is an easy way for China to shortcut the whole procedure. They could set up military detention centres for terrorists in other countries, where neither Chinese law nor the law of the host country, nor military codes of conduct apply. Then they can snatch people off the streets anywhere in the world as long as they believe them to be terrorists, or have ties to terrorists. These suspected terrorists can then be held indefinitely with no need to be charged with anything, and torture is OK, probably even condoned and encouraged at the highest levels. In that way China could bring its judicial system up to the American high standard. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It should be pointed out that in America you can be detained and harassed for taking photos of industrial sites or important landmarks, anything that could be a target of terrorists. Here's one <a href="http://fieldnotes.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/07/04/4611161-photographer-detained-by-police-bp-employee-near-refinery">recent example</a>. And people no doubt are now familiar with the <a href="http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/media_boaters_could_face_crimi.html">new rule</a> barring journalists from getting within 65 feet of any oil booms in the Gulf of Mexico.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">China continues to be criticized for its brutal treatment of students at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananmen_Square_protests_of_1989">Tiananmin Square</a> in 1989 as well as other repressive treatment of citizens. Americans levelling such criticism should remember the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings">Kent State shootings</a> in 1970.<br />
<br />
Canadians should demand an independent inquiry into police action/inaction in the recent G20 "Fake Lake" summit in Toronto, especially what role, if any, <a href="http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=19928&context=va">agent provacateurs</a> may have played. Many journalists have complained of arbitrary arrest and excessive, brutal treatment from the police. One citizen who received some prominence was <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/831652--g20-detainees-get-engaged-at-protest">Tommy Taylor</a>. <b>Everyone should read <a href="http://www.facebook.com/notes/tommy-taylor/how-i-got-arrested-and-abused-at-g20-in-toronto-canada/397205503638">his detailed account </a>of the events leading up to his arrest, police conduct throughout, and detention conditions.</b> There are many similar, shorter accounts written by journalists.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The North American and Chinese legal systems aren't as different as many people think.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">____________________________<br />
And what's with the kid on the ground. No real critic of the corporate globalization movement would own <b>anything</b> made by Nike, and certainly would not be wearing Nike runners at a protest rally.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMD2HbBsYdnECaO6rLT2GjwubHOqH92L4cFDTlOn3CUA2dVU6MflixzDgHEOzKpyi47S2ZMhUiRUT_b2LFoHEs18eZhWRl2G6dZqPfk_2A52xoYSXgmxUEDmtyQEgaf939PBp7-KJb-sx7/s1600/G20-10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMD2HbBsYdnECaO6rLT2GjwubHOqH92L4cFDTlOn3CUA2dVU6MflixzDgHEOzKpyi47S2ZMhUiRUT_b2LFoHEs18eZhWRl2G6dZqPfk_2A52xoYSXgmxUEDmtyQEgaf939PBp7-KJb-sx7/s320/G20-10.jpg" /></a></div><br />
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</div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-16047056272414503362010-07-06T00:23:00.001-06:002010-07-06T00:51:04.577-06:00Gullible Ph.D. Psychologist Taken Down<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is a sad tale of gullibility and greed in America. In this instance a psychotherapist fell for one of the ubiquitous Nigerian Letter (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advance-fee_fraud">advance fee</a>) frauds, was played like a 2 pound fish on a 20 pound line, and was eventually imprisoned. This case was reported in The New Yorker in 1996 under the title "<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/05/15/060515fa_fact?currentPage=all">The Perfect Mark</a>". I just stumbled upon it today, and thought it instructive on some of the points I made in a previous post, <a href="http://gullibilityplanet.blogspot.com/2010/02/decade-of-energy-scams.html">Decade of the Energy Scams</a>. Some of the general comments I made in that post apply here, especially this one:</span><br />
<blockquote><i>I informed the guy who posted this video link on a popular trading blog that he was highly gullible. He didn't take it well, considering he is a physician with a previous PhD in the sciences. But he is a good example of something every scam artist knows well -- highly educated people are the easiest to scam.</i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span></blockquote>. . . <span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">and this one:</span><br />
<blockquote><i>When a person with experience meets a person with money, the person with experience leaves with more money, and the person with the money leaves with more experience.</i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span></blockquote><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The New Yorker article contains good discussion on advance-fee type scams. Notice how </span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">John Worley was taken down by the Nigerians. Despite being given a bad cheque early in the scam, he opens a bank account in Bermuda for the purpose of parking the funds supposedly arriving from Nigeria. This cost him $4300. This is the "foot in the door" technique used in sales; get the client to make a small commitment, then upsell him to the max. After that it was easy to work the gullible mark, John Worley, for hundreds of thousands of dollars.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This scenario reminds me of the plot in one of my favourite movies, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Simple_Plan_%28film%29">A Simple Plan. </a><br />
The plot investigates how far honest people might go to protect their secret of a discovery of $4.4 million dollars in a crashed airplane. It also reminds me of the hapless Jerry Lundegaard in the movie <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fargo_%28film%29">Fargo</a>.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In John Worley's case, and in the two movies, normal people make mistakes, and then compound them with increasingly larger ones.</span><br />
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</span><br />
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I note that John Worley obtained his Ph.D. by correspondence from the</span> Carolina University of Theology, which presumably would be the equivalent of Saskatchewan high school Grade 10. And what type of clientele would pay for counselling from such a person? Only in America!</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Note how the Nigerian scammer(s) use the wire transfer technique to extract the loot. The scammer typically sends excess funds for some purchase, using a bad cheque or money order, and then asks the mark to wire transfer the excess amount to some third party. A wire transfer is final, non-recoverable. The mark is then out the amount of the bad cheque plus the amount of the "excess" that he/she wired to the scammer.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">A local radio personality, Shauna Foster, was taken down in a bad money order scam last year. This one became a viral e-mail with all the usual "forward to everyone you know" BS, and I don't know which parts of the e-mail are true. (Like most people I receive numerous urban legend/hoax type e-mails; I particularly like the challenge of seeing how many sentences, or words, I need to read to identify it as a hoax. So keep them coming, gang!) I had the same reaction as the person at the <a href="http://deathbedmoment.blogspot.com/2009/02/stop-madness.html">following blog</a> had; there was much more to the story than the e-mail stated. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">If anyone has time on their hands, here's a devious Saskatchewan guy who has a <a href="http://scambusted.blogspot.com/">few narratives</a> on how he "plays" Nigerian scammers. Note that he has the Shauna Foster e-mail at the top, then a short series with Andrew Bell. But the first one in the series, where he is attempting to sell a van to Nigerian "Mrs. Helen", is at the bottom and should be read from the bottom up. I particularly liked how he gets the Nigerian(s) to send correspondence to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_Gas">Dog River, SK</a>, and how he uses the local RCMP detachment phone number as his contact number.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
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</div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-34256450995010899812010-06-26T13:59:00.002-06:002010-08-03T15:17:39.516-06:00Stop whining, take the pain<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVJpwZ9gzYRX_SswiDZrI5TgYVVHvhYL4oJxAwVHO4fCKK37G7eLdJgzu-tR4P3dXs3ZQf96lfycMLVuvEgBKJoIR7Vy-HSrW7o7ZIR8RMWKFB1cPtQe3i9x71WX3RJd_KrVRwSkmAal4T/s1600/uncle-sam-whining.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVJpwZ9gzYRX_SswiDZrI5TgYVVHvhYL4oJxAwVHO4fCKK37G7eLdJgzu-tR4P3dXs3ZQf96lfycMLVuvEgBKJoIR7Vy-HSrW7o7ZIR8RMWKFB1cPtQe3i9x71WX3RJd_KrVRwSkmAal4T/s320/uncle-sam-whining.jpg" /></a></div><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">In the movie Platoon one of the early scenes has a night firefight, where one of the Americans is wounded. As the wounded man writhes on the ground, moaning, the "bad" Sergeant played by Tom Berringer places his hand over the man's mouth and forcefully instructs him to "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqO29l90C_E">take the pain!</a>"</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There is considerable whining about the BP oil debacle in the Gulf of Mexico. <b>Stop whining, take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> Some people, mostly oil industry insiders or supporters, have stated the oil spill is a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory">"black swan" event</a>. It isn't. A black swan event is one that is so unusual, unexpected, or unlikely that almost no-one could have foreseen its occurrence. The BP spill was foreseeable, perhaps even likely. The exact timing and location of a major uncontrolled blowout in the Gulf of Mexico was not foreseeable, but the probability of one occuring was much more than a remote possibility. Especially since <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I_oil_spill">there had already been one in 1979</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Anyone who has paid even superficial attention to the news through the years should not be surprised that this incident would occur with BP as the operator. The corporation has a sordid history of violation of safety and environmental standards too lengthy to list, but summarized in this <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP#Safety_record">wiki article</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">It was widely known that under CEO John Browne for roughly 10 years to 2007 that BP's field operations were starved for cash, particularly the refineries. His cost cutting was viewed as excessive by employees who often stated they were unable to do necessary inspections and repairs on equipment. The inevitable result was a series of mishaps including the Texas City refinery explosion (2005), the Prudhoe Bay, AK pipeline spill (2006), and finally this year's Deepwater Horizon blowout. Tony Hayward also skimped on equipment maintenance after he took the CEO position.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The Texas City explosion killed 15 and injured about 170 others. I think there were grounds for criminal negligence charges and lengthy jail terms for many people in BP management in that circumstance, but they essentially negotiated their way out of it with minor penalties. It helps to have friends in high places. In one book I read that a senior BP official was miffed at having to go to Texas City following the incident because it took a day off his vacation time. Just like <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZAVcPuXeSU">Tony Hayward's comment about wanting his life back</a>. Good to see these little incidents aren't affecting the corporate culture.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Despite the numerous safety and environmental infractions and warnings, BP has been a darling with investors. It has been profitable, and in case you haven't noticed, the profitability of corporations ranks higher in the developed nations than almost any other consideration. We are all complicit in the Gulf of Mexico debacle because we elect governments who cater to the mega-corporations above all else, certainly above the needs and well-being of the citizenry. The banksters, big oil, health care (especially in the USA), pharmaceutical companies, agribiz, and others set the legislative agenda for most of the developed nations.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Anyone with experience in industrial accidents knows that a major accident is rarely due to one cause alone. <b>The root, and major contributing causes are often 3 to 7 in number. I have seen many accidents where if any one of the multiple major causes had been eliminated, the accident could not have occurred. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Human error is often present in accidents. This being widely known, industrial safety systems incorporate safeguards to minimize the possibility of human error alone creating an accident. That's why industrial sites have lockout-tagout procedures, numerous detailed startup-shutdown checklists, detailed logs of temperatures, pressures, flow rates, etc. They are all designed to eliminate common causes of accidents and bring attention to anything abnormal.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Industrial safety systems involve documenting incidents, near misses, and accidents. Here's a simplistic description. An accident is any event that causes harm to people, equipment, or the environment. A near miss is an event that almost caused harm to people, equipment, or the environment. An incident is an event that posed no danger under the circumstances, but could have under other circumstances. An incident would be a worker dropping a hammer from a scaffold; the hammer lands in an area that creates no danger. A near miss would be if the hammer landed near someone walking by, or if it could have broken critical equipment, but didn't. An accident would be if the hammer struck a person, or broke a pipe, thereby releasing chemicals for instance.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">For every major accident there are many small accidents, say 10 to 1 for simplification. For every minor accident there are many near misses, again say 10 to 1. For every near miss there are many incidents, again say 10 to 1. So in this case, on average there would be 100 incidents for every minor accident, and 1000 incidents for a major accident. That's why safety programmes are designed to minimize incidents. Minimizing incidents drastically cuts down the odds of an accident.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I'm betting that if BP's worksites were subjected to independent safety audits we would find that BP management pays only lip service to eliminating incidents. They couldn't have such a horrendous record of safety and environmental violations otherwise.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Then there is the corporate ethic. BP energy traders have been formally charged with market manipulation more than once. Of course several other oil companies have had the same charges.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So now we have citizens along the Gulf of Mexico whining about the environment, and especially a potential or actual loss of income. I haven't noticed them complaining a whole lot about the aquatic <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_zone_%28ecology%29">dead zone</a> at the mouth of the Mississippi due to fertilizer run-off, so I suspect their anger is weighted more to income loss than the environment. Like people anywhere they like the economic benefits of industrial activity, but are unwilling to accept the adverse consequences. <b>Stop whining, take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There is also considerable consternation about the red tape and confusion about who is in charge of what with respect to spill containment and cleanup. To an outsider, it appears to be a typical American clusterf**k. American mainstream media reports have been typically superficial, characterized by ignorance of the topics being reported, lack of in-depth research and investigation, and heavy reliance on sensationalism; why should they treat this issue differently than any other? Rolling Stone magazine and Jon Stewart offer more useful analysis than any of the five corporate-owned network news groups. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The oil companies' emergency response plans are clearly inadequate ("Mickey Mouse" would be the appropriate technical term). The federal government appears to have been negligent, if not grossly negligent, in carrying out its regulatory duties with respect to drilling. But this was all known and documented long ago; very few cared. <b><i>"Drill, baby, drill! USA! USA! We're number one!"</i></b> Hurricane Katrina uncovered the inadequacies of the American emergency response system; the response to this incident doesn't lead to a conclusion that any significant improvement has been made. Most Americans have bought into the meme of "government is the problem", "just get rid of (or don't enforce) these tedious socialistic regulations holding business back and we'll all be rich". Anything to knock the price of gasoline back a penny per gallon must be good, and anything adding to the cost must be bad. The Gulf oil spill is a direct and foreseeable consequence of that way of thinking; you got what you paid for. <b>So stop whining and take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">People in Florida are complaining about contamination of their beaches. There is a bit of a holier-than-thou attitude in Florida (like California) which seems to come from the fact that they don't allow offshore drilling. But from my observations that hasn't stopped Floridians from driving big, gas guzzling vehicles. There's a word for people who want the benefits (i.e. cheap gasoline) of others' endeavours, without the risks -- freeloaders. <b>Floridians should stop whining and take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Articles are appearing about the poor widows and orphans (Scots in particular) who are invested in BP and who are losing money due to the share price drop. I suspect these articles are plants by the banksters, hedge funds, and oil companies who have a vested interest in limiting BP's damages. For the record, I believe BP should be forced into bankruptcy, the executive management tossed, shareholder equity wiped out, with bondholders taking a huge haircut. Only when people who manage and finance the mega-corporations feel pain will they begin to pay attention to the risks being taken. Bankruptcy doesn't mean the corporation has to cease to exist; it just wouldn't have the same management or shareholders after emerging from the bankruptcy. So, to the shareholders who up to this point haven't been questioning BP on its conduct, you got exactly what you deserved; <b>stop whining and take the pain. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Offshore drillers are upset at the 6 month moratorium on new deep water drilling. Note -- this is not a moratorium on existing production, just on new drilling until the practices, procedures, and equipment can be examined and seen to be in balance with acceptable risk levels. The moratorium was set aside with an injunction by a judge who himself is now a news item due to his investments in oil producers and drillers. There are a limited number of drillers, and everyone in the industry knows how the others conduct their business. This was a "wild well" almost from the start (requiring stricter adherence to safe procedures). There has been considerable information released on BP's efforts to "cut corners" and hurry drilling on this well. There is always pressure on drillers to bring a well in fast and cheap. (<b>In most endeavours involving contractors you get to chose from "fast", "cheap", and "correct"; but you can only chose two of the three.</b>) Almost all the drillers are quite diligent and thorough in adhering to the safest practices, but when a spill of this magnitude occurs they should not believe it will be business as usual for some time. Sue BP and the government for your losses. <b>Drillers should stop whining and take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">There could be court cases for two decades over this spill, based on past environmental disasters. The manufacturer of the blowout preventer (Cameron) will be involved, as will the drilling contractor (Transocean), and the operator (BP), and Halliburton who did the cement work believed to have failed. BP also has partners Anadarko and Mitsui who will not want to take any liability. This circus has way more than three rings. The government will be involved via the Minerals Management Service (MMS). Up to this point the MMS personnel have been in the news mostly for <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_10431998">alleged sex and drug activities</a>, often with the people they supposedly regulate. There's nothing new here. Greed, fraud and corruption have become the three most distinguishing characteristics of American business and government.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Some corporate lawyers might make the bulk of their lifetime earnings off this spill. America is no longer a nation of laws; it is a nation of lawyers. BP lawyers will litigate forever on the size of the spill, and how much was caused by BP as opposed to natural seepage and other undocumented leaks. They will try to shift liability for the spill to the other companies involved, as well as the government. Everyone will point the finger at everyone else. The more confusing it gets the longer it takes to reach conclusions, and plaintiffs tend to eventually give up and take some small token settlement. The oil companies will delay until they have bought compliant politicians (as if they don't already have that) and judiciary (ditto). Then there will be a negotiated settlement some years down the road when everyone's attention is focused on why the war in Iran is going so poorly in its 10th or 15th year. Realistically, the oil companies probably only have to make it to the fall; the average citizen will lose interest with the new season of Monday Night Football and American Idol. <b>So stop whining and take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Multi-national companies have despoiled the environment and harmed the health of people all over the world, including within America, not just the Gulf of Mexico. We all want the cheapest energy, metals, chemicals, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, food, etc. and are quite willing to disregard the environmental impact on the people in the areas where those resources are extracted, produced or grown. So now there's a wee bit of a petroleum smudge in the Gulf of Mexico that some people living in the "Redneck Riviera" find inconvenient. Tough titty -- it's the luck of the draw and you drew the short straw this time. It's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and Tony Hayward was correct to point that out. In our energy-consumptive consumer societies where the top priority is maximization of corporate profits, some environmental damage is to be expected. To put it into perspective, there are about 500,000 producing wells in America with about 40,000 new ones drilled every year. Leaks and spills will become more prevalent in the future with the cost pressures inherent in greater demand for limited resources. Embrace the oil, become one with the oil, without it you are nothing ;-). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Americans tend to display <a href="http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/1082511">histrionic behaviour</a> over the smallest things. There is nothing unusual or unpredictable about this spill; like all past and future spills it is a direct and foreseeable consequence of the lifestyles led by us, the citizens of the developed nations. Learn a little about chickens and their proclivities for roosting locations. <b>Stop whining and take the pain.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b> </b>For those of you who haven't seen the coffee spill spoof of BP, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AAa0gd7ClM">here it is</a>. Clarke and Dawe have a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5C9Q7ZLMVM">good one</a> as well. If you liked the Clarke and Dawe spoof, you should also check out another of theirs, "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgrX7uOZqHI">The Front Fell Off</a>", about an oil tanker break-up near Australia.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6667859569559741468.post-36400554459526684062010-06-19T17:37:00.000-06:002010-06-19T17:37:15.071-06:00<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">It's all about Energy</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">This post is intended to explore the thesis that it is energy, not money, that "makes the world go round". Energy dynamics, not financial or economic ones, underly the financial and economic turmoil of the past few years. <b>Understanding energy dynamics is fundamental to understanding your future.</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let's start with some basics. In a simple ecological system containing plants and animals there are energy inputs and transfers. The main energy input is sunlight, which plants capture, and transform into growth and seed for regeneration. Various animals (herbivores) eat the plants, using the captured energy for mobility, growth and reproduction. And other animals (carnivores) eat the herbivores to get their energy requirements. There are considerable energy inefficiencies in the system. The plants capture only a portion of the energy in sunlight that reaches them, herbivores capture only a portion of the energy available in the plants they consume, and carnivores capture only a portion of the energy available in the animals they consume. The more links in the food chain, the more energy it takes at the lowest level to sustain the system. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Man is both a herbivore and carnivore, and tends to be at the top of the food chain, requiring a tremendous energy base in the chain below him for support. Think of the indigenous North American plains Indians. They were few in number relative to the land they occupied. Whenever their population exceeded the available food supply (energy) they either died off, or reduced their population through wars. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let's examine the concept of money. I'm being overly simplistic here, so don't be distracted by the detail you may have knowledge of. Money is an artificial human construct, and does not form part of any ecosystem. Money developed as a method to make commercial transactions easier, rather than the more cumbersome barter system. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">But what is money, when you boil it down to its essential elements? I maintain it is a <b>claim on the energy of others</b>. When you have money it represents potential energy, like water stored behind a dam. When you spend the money you obtain goods or services in return, all of which have taken energy to produce. You have exchanged an energy token (money) for kinetic energy (e.g. roller coaster ride) or embedded energy (e.g. groceries). While you are reading this blog for "free" someone had to expend money to purchase the computer to read it on, and all the components of the computer contain embedded energy, and it takes energy to operate. It takes very little energy for me to put pixels on the screen in the shape of (hopefully) legible words, but it took a tremendous amount of energy to raise me from birth to the present day. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">And debt is just reverse (or negative) money. <b>When you have debt it means others have a claim on your future energy inputs.</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Every one of us is a container of embedded energy, all the energy we consumed in our lifetimes less the energy expended. Even our knowledge and skills are a form of stored energy. It took energy to get our brain synapses to do their thing to store data in a form that we can recall and use in our daily lives. When we die we put very little energy back into the system compared to what we consumed in our lifetimes. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">So what, you ask? As long as I have food, a roof over my head, and gas for my car, why would I care? Well, let's move on to consider energy supply and consumption.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Modern man has moved beyond the constraints of a hunter-gatherer existance. How? Through the deployment of energy supplements. For millenia man has been using animals (or other humans) to transport goods, etc. He used the energy stored in wood and other flammables for cooking, heating, etc. At one point every river in Europe was filled with water-powered mills to provide more energy supplement. Then he learned to use windmills, which provided enegy away from waterways. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Then there came a wood shortage, and coal was used. Better yet, a more dense energy source (more BTUs per unit of weight). Then the steam engine was invented, and coal really boomed. Then whale oil was used for illumination which meant activity could proceed at night as well. And right on cue, as whale oil was depleting, rock oil became an energy source. We've been in the age of petroleum for the last 150 years.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">At each energy transition there were more people demanding more energy in a general trend to improve lifestyle and longevity. So what? Who cares (says the teenager text messaging her friend on her iPod)?</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">The problem is that we have about 6.8 billion people on this earth, in need of energy inputs. Most are barely above the survival level, struggling to get enough energy to provide food and water for their families for the next week, or even the next day; they use little or no petroleum products. But a minority in the developed world take for granted a huge energy supplement in the form of petroleum products. Canadians and Americans each consume about 25-26 barrels of oil per year, not limited to fuel alone, but in the products we use like plastics, fertilizer, pesticides, and pharmaceuticals.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">The problem is that petroleum energy became so cheap that we have taken it for granted. Cheap energy allowed us to develop a lifestyle that incorporates large detached dwellings, automobile transportation over long distances for daily activities, and an incredibly complex society. That complexity can exist only in the presence of cheap and abundant energy, primarily in the form of petroleum products and coal. <b>All other energy sources are minor or miniscule in comparison, and will never replace the energy we currently get from fossil fuels. </b> (This is pretty much a mathematical certainty that takes time to explain, so I don't intend to expand on it here.) If you believe all the current hype about alternative energies allowing us to continue our current lifestyles, I would suggest you need some education about energy.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">So how does this tie in with the current (relatively minor in my opinion) economic turmoil that we have experienced in the last 2-3 years? The wealthy Americans will tell you it was all the poor people taking out "liars' loans", and government sponsoring housing for people who can't afford it. The less wealthy blame it on banks and associated financial sectors taking advantage of their power to enslave the working class in debt. Economists, most of whom are entirely clueless about how the real world works, have numerous theories. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Only a minority of people recognize the real issue -- an unsustainable increase in debt. Credit cycles (also known as business cycles) are not new, and generally run 4-6 years peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough. At the bottom of the cycle economic growth is slow or non-existant, jobs are scarce, people are cautious and pay down debt, and lending institutions are "tight" with their money. Interest rates are generally high, but dropping as central banks try to stimulate growth. At some point economic growth improves, jobs return, people spend more money, and lending institutions are "loose" with their money. Central banks increase rates until the little boomlet slows, and takes us back to the cycle start.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">What we are experiencing is a much longer term phenomenon, not just a normal business cycle. For about the last 40-45 years there has been a gradual erosion of the North American economy (and other developed nations' economies) which was camouflaged by increasing long term debt. We built a system that is unsustainable in the long term.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">But why is debt a problem? After all, Dick Cheney stated, "Reagan proved deficits don't matter." (For the record, I consider Reagan and Cheney to be two of the most harmful dumbasses who have held high office in America.) Can't we just readjust a little, and gradually pay it down, without any major sacrifice? Nope! Not a chance! </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> Here's where it gets interesting. In 1901 when the Spindletop oilfield in Texas was tapped, it took roughly one barrel of crude oil energy to bring out 100 barrels of crude. Oil prices dropped to as little as 3 cents a barrel. See the problem? Eventually the Railroad Commission of Texas regulated supply to get the price up. After a while many nations decided that the oil in their countries should belong to them and not the the big international oil companies (the "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Sisters_%28oil_companies%29">Seven Sisters</a>"). A group of those countries decided controlling supply, as the Texans did, was a good idea to promote price stability and guarantee profits, and formed OPEC.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the early 1970s America's oil production peaked at less than 10 million barrels per day, and has dropped back to about 5 million barrels per day. Current consumption is about 20 million barrels per day. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Now it gets really interesting. In the 1970s there were two "oil shocks" due to OPEC curtailing production. Prices increased and a recession followed both shocks. Over time the cost of extracting oil has risen, as the cheapest and easiest formations have been depleted. This rising cost resulted in more of the economy being devoted to energy supply, and less for other things like roads, bridges, sewers, etc. Of course the infrastructure still got built, and people continued to improve their standard of living. Instead of "living within our means" we just put the difference on credit. Jimmy <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tPePpMxJaA">Carter warned us</a>, but he was highly denigrated by most Americans who seem to prefer intellectual lightweights like Reagan and "Baby" Bush.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Someone did a study of recessions and noticed that something like 7 of the last 8 were preceded by a spike in oil prices. That makes sense. In the study he stated that it appeared when America spent more than 4% of GDP on oil, a recession followed. I have no way of knowing if this is true, but it has a "gut feel" of truth to it. Last year I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation and came up with $83/bbl oil being roughly 4% of American GDP. Again, it "feels" about right.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">So, assuming the above numbers to be about right, what does it mean? Well, since oil production (including non-conventional oil and liquified natural gas) and demand are both roughly 86 million bbl/day worldwide, any increase in demand or decrease in supply should result in a price rise. Oil usage in the developed world has flattened, but it is still rising in the developing world. Economic development cannot occur without increasing energy inputs; the developed nations have transferred much of the energy-intensive manufacturing to developing nations.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Those who state we will "grow our way out of our deficits" are highly uninformed in my humble opinion. Growth has ended for the developed nations. We cannot afford it (other than the fake growth found in government statistics). From now on the struggle will be to control the rate of deterioration of our lifestyles.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">From the $83/bbl number inducing a recession above, I have come up with my own simple hypothesis of predicting the American economy based on oil prices, and by extension Canada's. Energy underpins everything we do, and oil is a good proxy for the entire energy complex including coal, hydro, nuclear, and the trifling contributors like solar and wind. I'm rounding last year's $83/bbl to this year's $85 (inflation) for a no-growth American economy. Then, the following would follow:</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> $80 oil = growth limited to 2%;</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> $85 oil = zero growth;</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> $90 oil = recession; and,</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"> $100 oil = major recession (continuation of current depression in my opinion).</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Obviously a sharp spike in oil prices of short duration has no lasting effect on an economy, so I monitor the 50 dma (daily moving average) of oil prices for my purposes. This is just the average of the oil price for the previous 50 trading days (10 weeks). If the 50 dma hits $85, I'm reasonably sure the US economy is at zero growth, or just entering recession.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">How to monitor oil prices? The easiest way is to go to <a href="http://stockcharts.com/">stockcharts.com</a> and plug <b>$wtic</b> (West Texas Intermediate Crude) into the "Sharp Charts" box on the home page. Then look at the value at the left of the chart for the 50 dma (blue line). You should see something like this partial screen capture (click on image to see on separate screen):</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDdLlR8g3Kk7Hk0aClEIZySDTDEXPmiKbTSCV84Y1wuZZsqgEUNdRKrbbb_pP6s_1M2i27zeLyTi4IJRfEffpudt2b_kl6OvLfOaJLv2H73Wm2uqcAGhE_dmJt55PgGCaeGVf_j3-tFZX9/s1600/$wtic.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDdLlR8g3Kk7Hk0aClEIZySDTDEXPmiKbTSCV84Y1wuZZsqgEUNdRKrbbb_pP6s_1M2i27zeLyTi4IJRfEffpudt2b_kl6OvLfOaJLv2H73Wm2uqcAGhE_dmJt55PgGCaeGVf_j3-tFZX9/s320/$wtic.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Notice how the 50 dma hit about $83 in early May, then trended down as oil prices dropped. It very nearly hit the target $85 recession point. On the legend at the left it shows current 50 dma at $78.00 and 200 dma (40 weeks) at $77.26. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">My numbers are approximations only, but I think we can be quite certain $100 oil will kill the US economy big time, while $50 oil will curtail new drilling. I think the range will be mostly $60-90, with only brief spikes outside that range. So all these goofballs talking about $200 oil are probably ignorant in other areas as well. (Sorry, Jeff Rubin, but I thought <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Your-World-About-Whole-Smaller/dp/1400068509/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1276976896&sr=1-1">your book</a> was basically a summary of other peoples' hard work -- OK for beginners on "energy learning training wheels" but not for serious education.) When oil hit $147 in the summer of 2008 the American economy was already convulsing like an epileptic hit with a Taser. That economy is much weaker now, so the same result can be obtained at a lower oil price.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Think of energy prices like the ball in a slow motion pinball machine. When it hits a low numbered post it's a good thing, and you gain economic points. When it hits a high numbered post it's a bad thing, and you lose economic points. When America takes a hit, everyone feels the pain -- all economies are linked through the international bankster network of fraudulent paper instruments. As the cost to find and produce oil rises, and the ability to afford it drops in the developed nations, the price will become increasingly erratic. OECD countries will bounce in and out of recessions more rapidly. Those economies will be in recession more than they will be in growth periods. At the same time the developing nations will continue growing until they, too, are too dependent on oil.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">There is considerable debate on whether world oil production can be increased from the present 86 million bbl/day, and if so by how much, and when. Those who say production will increase tend to rely mostly on their belief systems -- production has always increased so far, and technological advances will ensure there will always be adequate supply. Those who say we are at or near peak production tend to have reams of data on supply/demand/cost/storage from which they draw their conclusions. My views are with the latter group.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">What general conclusions can we draw from energy consumption trends and the upward trend in oil prices? Here are some obvious ones:</span></span></div><ol style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><li style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">As cheap oil fields are depleted, the cost to develop new fields rises, bringing prices up permanently. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Rising energy prices act like a tax on economies. The economies most dependent on cheap oil like Canada and the USA will feel the effect of rising prices the most.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Developing nations have hundreds of millions of people with increasing incomes who intend to use more energy of all types, and can afford it because they use very little now. </span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Rising energy costs in North America will cause those in the middle and lower economic classes (the large majority of the citizenry) to cut back on expenditures on everything. Their credit is pretty much maxed out. Canadians and Americans have roughly the same household debt ratios.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As citizens cut back on energy usage, they will buy fewer cars. I suspect there never again will be as many cars in North America as there were in 2007. Governments will continue to waste taxpayer money on failed companies like GM. I suspect the Chevy Volt will be a collosal flop. We have too many auto manufacturers; GM and Chrysler should have been euthanized via the bankruptcy process so those who know how to run a business could take over the assets. </span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Housing is the largest single expense for most people in developed nations. This has been compounded in many countries in the world with housing bubbles, created by artificially low interest rates and easy credit. Millions of North Americans are trapped in over-priced McMansions; Americans are painfully aware, most Canadians remain blissfully ignorant ("it's different here"). The inevitable will happen: McMansions will be sub-divided to hold 2-3 family units rather than one. Did I mention we have all the housing we will need in North America for at least the next 20 years? That hasn't stopped the federal government in the United Subsidies of America from supporting homebuilders with tax breaks, encouraging them to build more homes, rather than enter bankruptcy as they should. The twisted logic behind <a href="http://www.examiner.com/x-19285-Chicago-Economic-Policy-Examiner%7Ey2009m11d11-Home-builders-will-benefit-from-tax-loss-carry-back-extension">that subsidy</a> (and others) is partly why America is accelerating its decline to third world status.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Unemployment will remain permanently high in North America.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Wages will stagnate, and probably drop in terms of purchasing power.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Most pensions will be downgraded; existing payment schedules are mathematically impossible, especially for public sector employees with defined benefit plans. </span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> Social unrest will become more prevalent, and will involve escalating levels of theft, vandalism and violence. Police will be less prevalent (<a href="http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpp/news/national/092409_police_cars_repossessed_for_nonpayment">unaffordable</a>) while private security will boom (for those who can afford it). Vigilantism will return and they won't always get the right person(s).</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Governments will attempt to increase their revenues by increasing existing taxes, and by introducing new ones (levies, licenses, user fees, tolls, surtaxes, windfall profits taxes, speculative gains taxes, value added taxes, etc.)</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">America is trending toward third world status, and will be there before 2020 unless there are some major intervening events. Highly complex societies tend to collapse rather suddenly after a resource depletion event.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I have been maintaining since 2005 that we are due for an international currency collapse in 2012, based on demographics, debt accumulation, and resource depletion. I see no reason to adjust that forecast; the central bankers are currently strategizing on what will replace the USD as the world reserve currency.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Major wars will occur as the reality of Point 12 sinks in, the most likely flash point being somewhere in <a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GE26Ag01.html">Pipeline-istan</a>. There's a reason the Americans are building permanent military bases in and around Pipeline-istan; they aren't entirely stupid. They expect "first dibs" on the hydrocarbons and other resources. He who controls the oil controls the world. </span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">If the human population hasn't already been considerably reduced by famines and diseases, the wars will have to be destructive enough to reduce the population by billions, back to a more sustainable level. Many people who study these things maintain that the long term carrying capacity for people on this earth is 1-2 billion people. I think there have been four major population die-offs in the history of mankind and the signs indicate we are due for the fifth.</span></span></span></li>
</ol><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">There is always the possibility that some of these events can be postponed, but that is just "kicking the can down the road". Resource depletion, and energy depletion in particular, will trigger a collapse of the human population at some point. It's a matter of when, not if.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">With that definitely uncheerful thought, let's turn our attention to someone who looks like he is suffering from energy depletion:</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyRCPee35GRVT4d4tORz3J-25rkCLPr2IQ3Ru5h4zsQKPEQ4KA4gTlQSgsFaa-G0uiiaFDrqV4DqXYladGkTtXYy6ts0cF3rqyKaYVSIUTXxOSzyybk6Luvvu911J49Oa2cQLgyvOFMqPb/s1600/An-Squirrel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyRCPee35GRVT4d4tORz3J-25rkCLPr2IQ3Ru5h4zsQKPEQ4KA4gTlQSgsFaa-G0uiiaFDrqV4DqXYladGkTtXYy6ts0cF3rqyKaYVSIUTXxOSzyybk6Luvvu911J49Oa2cQLgyvOFMqPb/s400/An-Squirrel.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Prairie Drifterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05529992002140992666noreply@blogger.com0